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Gu production now expected to be above average

  • Key Message Update
  • Somalia
  • July 2018
Gu production now expected to be above average

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Based on recent field assessments, rainfed Gu production in southern agropastoral areas is likely to be above average, which is better than previously expected. Although riverine production in July will be well below average, rainfed production combined with an above-average riverine off-season harvest in September will lead to overall above-average Gu production. Atypically low cereal prices are likely through September and livestock conditions are also expected to further improve. Food security is improving overall, but most poor households will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through January 2019.

    • In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, significantly low herd sizes prevail following losses during Cyclone Sagar and the 2016/2017 drought, and poor households would be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the absence of humanitarian assistance. IDP settlements also remain an area of greatest concern, where most are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Large-scale assistance reached 1.9 million people per month in May and June across Somalia, or 75 percent of the estimated 2.5 million in need. Assistance has likely prevented more severe outcomes, and food security would deteriorate significantly in its absence.

    • In Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, high fuel costs led to a decrease in area planted in semi-mechanized areas. As a result, a significantly below-average maize harvest is expected in August. Windy and drier than normal July conditions negatively affected long-cycle sorghum crop establishment, but production may recover with the forecast average August/September Karan rains. Given low herd sizes, poor households are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September, when off-season green maize and horticultural crops become available.

    • After widespread flooding during the Gu season in riverine areas in Hiiraan, Gedo, Middle Shabelle, and Lower and Middle Juba regions, the July harvest is likely to be significantly below average. This has caused a decrease in agricultural labor opportunities, despite ongoing recessional cultivation. Poor households are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September, when above-average off-season cereals will be harvested.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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