Severe food insecurity persists despite ongoing Gu harvest

Gu production is expected to be around 50 percent of average as a result of below-average and poorly distributed April to June rainfall in agropastoral areas of Hiraan, Bakool, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Middle Shabelle. Production is expected to be only slightly better in Bay, around 50-70 percent of average. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely among poor households in these areas until the Deyr harvest in January, with the greatest food insecurity expected after September, when households exhaust stocks. 

In Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, preliminary estimates indicate that August Gu harvests and November Karan long-cycle sorghum harvests will both be well below average. However, farmers are atypically planting short-cycle sorghum in July and the harvest of these crops in November will increase total production. Poor households will rely on the consumption of harvests and the sale of horticultural crops to meet their basic food needs throughout the outlook period. However, many will sell a high proportion of crops to repay debts and will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

Local staple food prices remain below 2011 levels, but well above average. In Baidoa, the retail price of sorghum reached 10,300 SOS/kg in June, 95 percent above average and the highest June price since 2011. The retail price of maize in Qorioley in June was 10,750 SOS/kg, 50 percent above average and also the highest June price since 2011. Sustained high prices are attributed to below-average production in 2016 and traders withholding stocks from markets until August/September, when prices will be higher. 

In most pastoral livelihood zones of Middle and Lower Juba, rainfall in mid-June and July improved pasture and water resources, which supported livestock body improvements. Despite the influx of livestock from Gedo, Bay, and Lower Shabelle, average pasture conditions are expected to sustain normal migration patterns throughout the July-September Xagaa season. Poor pastoralists from these regions will have increased access to milk and saleable livestock, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected throughout the outlook period. 

According to the Food Security Cluster (FSC), humanitarian organizations will distribute large-scale emergency assistance through December, targeting 1 million beneficiaries in August and 400,000-600,000 a month from September to December. This is below current levels of 2.5 million beneficiaries a month, though not all distribution plans were submitted to the FSC as of mid-July and actual targets may be higher. Ongoing humanitarian assistance is improving food security in many areas to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3!). In the event that there is significant interruption to current food assistance programs and higher prices further decrease household food access, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible.