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Food insecurity worsens with below-average Gu harvest

  • Key Message Update
  • Somalia
  • July 2016
Food insecurity worsens with below-average Gu harvest

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In most southern agropastoral areas, including Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, Lower Juba, and parts of Lower and Middle Shabelle, below-average and erratic Gu rainfall has led to significantly below-average Gu harvests. Of particular concern are riverine areas of Hiiraan where poor rainfall and flooding destroyed an estimated 80 percent of standing crops. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently exist in Hiiraan and are likely in the remaining areas starting in October. 

    • Cereal prices in surplus-producing markets have atypically increased from May to June. In Bay, the price of sorghum increased 51 percent while the price of maize in Lower Shabelle increased 19 percent. Price increases are attributed to both escalating clan conflict that is reducing trade flows and to farmers withholding stocks from the markets in anticipation that below-average production will drive higher prices in August/September. 

    • In most southern pastoral areas, moderate rainfall in mid-June enhanced pasture and water resources, supporting improvements in livestock body conditions. Current pasture conditions are expected to sustain normal migration patterns during the July to September Xagaa season. Livestock productivity and values are favourable and poor households are expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through September. 

    • Seasonal forecasts and a high likelihood of a La Niña event occurring throughout the Deyr season suggest October to December rainfall will be below average. It is expected this will lead to below-average Deyr production and fail to adequately restore pasture and water resources. Food security is expected to deteriorate throughout much of Somalia from October to January. Areas of highest concern are southern agropastoral areas where expected below-average Deyr production will follow significantly below-average Gu production. 

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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