Key Message Update

Somalia expected to avert Famine, but the risk of Famine remains credible

January 2023

January 2023

February - May 2023

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
IPC
FSNAU

Key Messages

  • The delivery of humanitarian assistance to millions of Somalis, coupled with higher rainfall totals in the 2022 deyr season compared to the past two seasons, will most likely avert Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Somalia through June. High levels of assistance, including not only food assistance but also health, nutrition, and WASH interventions, has undoubtedly saved lives and prevented the complete collapse of local livelihoods amid the ongoing, unprecedented, three-year drought. 

  • However, the protracted drought has nonetheless claimed the lives and livelihoods of far too many people, and an anticipated sixth consecutive below-average rainfall season from April to June 2023 is expected to continue to suppress household food and income. As a result, at least 6.5 million people, including households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), still need humanitarian assistance to prevent hunger and mitigate the further erosion of their livelihoods. 

  • Furthermore, the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains credible through at least June in agropastoral areas of Burhakaba district of Bay Region and among the displaced populations in Baidoa and Mogadishu. To ensure the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) ends, donor governments and humanitarians must sustain high levels of multi-sectoral assistance through late 2023.

  • For more information on the analysis, including details on why Famine (IPC Phase 5) in parts of southern Somalia is no longer projected as the most likely outcome during the April-June 2023 period of analysis, please read the Somalia IPC Multi-partner Technical Release on the 2022 Post-Deyr IPC Analysis and FEWS NET and FSNAU's Somalia Food Security Alert.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics