Somalia expected to avert Famine, but the risk of Famine remains credible

The delivery of humanitarian assistance to millions of Somalis, coupled with higher rainfall totals in the 2022 deyr season compared to the past two seasons, will most likely avert Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Somalia through June. High levels of assistance, including not only food assistance but also health, nutrition, and WASH interventions, has undoubtedly saved lives and prevented the complete collapse of local livelihoods amid the ongoing, unprecedented, three-year drought. 

However, the protracted drought has nonetheless claimed the lives and livelihoods of far too many people, and an anticipated sixth consecutive below-average rainfall season from April to June 2023 is expected to continue to suppress household food and income. As a result, at least 6.5 million people, including households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), still need humanitarian assistance to prevent hunger and mitigate the further erosion of their livelihoods. 

Furthermore, the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains credible through at least June in agropastoral areas of Burhakaba district of Bay Region and among the displaced populations in Baidoa and Mogadishu. To ensure the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) ends, donor governments and humanitarians must sustain high levels of multi-sectoral assistance through late 2023.

For more information on the analysis, including details on why Famine (IPC Phase 5) in parts of southern Somalia is no longer projected as the most likely outcome during the April-June 2023 period of analysis, please read the Somalia IPC Multi-partner Technical Release on the 2022 Post-Deyr IPC Analysis and FEWS NET and FSNAU's Somalia Food Security Alert.