After below-average 2015 rainfall, parts of northern Somalia remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)

In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, average Heys rains in December improved pasture and water availability, leading to the recovery of livestock conditions and allowing for the conception of small ruminants. However, herd sizes remain below average due to low birth rates and high livestock off-take in previous seasons. Poor households are relying heavily on community support and remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

After a below-average Karan harvest, households in Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions exhausted their food stocks in November, which typically last through March. Many households are dependent on the market to access food, but have limited income as saleable animals and livestock production remain low after two previous, consecutive below-average seasons. Poor households in this zone are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through March. 

In northeastern regions, the October to December Deyr rainfall was below average with poor temporal and spatial distribution, resulting in limited pasture and water availability and elevated livestock death rates. Pasture and water resources and livestock production are expected to be significantly below average during the January to March Jilaal season. Many poor households are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) following El Niño-related poor 2015 rainfall and food security could further deteriorate between now and the start of the Gu rains in April. 

The average to above-average October to December Deyr rains in most southern and central regions is expected to lead to average to above-average January/February harvests, improved livestock production, and increased birth rates. However, below-average harvests are expected in Southern Rainfed Maize livelihood zone, where rainfall was poor. Many households in these areas will only be able to meet their food needs through income from labor migration and livestock sales and will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through May.