Middle Shabelle and Middle Juba to have low harvest due to earlier floods

Widespread river flooding in October and November will lead to a significantly below-average volume of Deyr crops in riverine areas in Middle Shabelle and Middle Juba Regions. The highly limited harvest in February along with the delay or elimination of labor opportunities associated with planting, weeding, and harvesting has already led to increased acute food insecurity in these areas.

Having exhausted the limited stocks from the Gu harvest in July, households in riverine areas of Middle Juba and Middle Shabelle are currently completely dependent on the market for food. With limited income due to the low level of agricultural activities, household have poor food access. From March through May, food access will increase slightly, following the Deyr off-season harvest in areas where flood-recession cultivation occurs and the income associated with Gu cropping.

Poorly distributed October to December Deyr rains in Hiraan have kept the poorest of the poor in agropastoral areas at Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Deyr crop production in February is likely to be below average, and crop failure is likely in some areas. Food security is likely to deteriorate between now and when Gu planting starts in March/April. However, between January and March, many poor households will be able to meet their food needs by selling additional livestock and from income from labor migration to riverine areas.

Near normal to above-normal October to December Deyr rainfall in agropastoral and pastoral areas of Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabelle, parts of Gedo and Lower Juba, and most areas of the northern and central regions are expected to lead to a near average Deyr harvest in January/February, improved livestock production and reproduction, and increased food security.