Needs likely to increase in north and central areas with below-average deyr forecast

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Acute food insecurity is expected to increase through at least January 2026 across parts of Somalia due to successive below-average rainfall seasons in 2024/2025 in northern and central Somalia; protracted conflict in parts of southern, central, and northeastern regions; and an anticipated below-average deyr rainfall season in late 2025. Northern and central areas are expected to be most affected by crop failure and livestock losses and emaciation, while the south generally benefited from favorable rains and cereal harvests during the 2025 gu season. Conflict continues to cause displacements and disruptions to trade flows and market access, driving acute food insecurity among internally displaced persons (IDPs). Forecasts indicate a weak La Niña from October to December 2025 and negative IOD through December 2025, increasing the chance of a below-average deyr, abnormally dry conditions, and localized drought risk, which are primarily expected to increase food assistance needs in northern and central regions and in IDP settlements.
In southern agropastoral and riverine regions, maize and sorghum harvests are expected to be favorable, above both the five-year average and the long-term mean (LTM; 1995-2024), supported by early and above-average gu rainfall, timely land preparation, low pest incidence, minimal flooding, and improved irrigation access. However, in Gedo, Hiiraan, and Bakool, early cessation of gu rainfall disrupted production, compounded by conflict related to Al-Shabaab and between Jubaland State and the government, as well as infrastructure damage from 2023-2024 El Niño-related flooding (Gedo and Hiiraan), and fear of conflict (Bakool), limiting the area harvested. These localized deficits were likely mitigated by favorable harvests in surplus-producing Bay and Lower Shabelle. Additional above-average off-season gu harvests are expected by October. Gu harvests are expected to provide poor households with cereal stocks and strengthen access to food and income from crop and fodder sales through October. However, recent gains are expected to be short-lived: forecasted below-average October-December deyr rainfall will likely limit 2025/26 deyr harvests.
In northwest agropastoral regions, the 2025 gu harvests are expected to be exceptionally low. Gu yellow maize production likely failed due to below-average gu rainfall and abnormally dry conditions that depleted soil moisture and limited crop germination. Similarly, sorghum yields are expected to be extremely below-average in November, with anticipated total sorghum crop failure in TogdheerAgropastoral livelihood zone following inadequate rainfall and lack of flooding, which halted long-cycle sorghum planting. Some farmers planted sorghum late once the karan rainfall intensified in August; however, time for maturation is limited ahead of an October crop establishment, and the standing sorghum crop will likely be harvested for livestock fodder sales, not household consumption. The significant production shortfalls will minimize seasonal cereal stock gains, and depleted pasture conditions are expected to limit household income and food access, exacerbating acute food insecurity through the end of January 2026.
In northern and central pastoral regions, prolonged drought conditions are driving below-baseline livestock holdings and poor livestock productivity in August, severely limiting typical food and income sources. Atypically dry jilaal (January-March) and gu (April-June) seasons resulted in poor rangeland replenishment, livestock body conditions, and reproductivity. Pasture availability is seasonally low in August, but conditions are atypically poor and particularly severe in areas along the central and northeast Coastal Deeh Pastoral areas; adjacent Addun, Northern Inland, and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zones; and northwest Guban Pastoral areas. Scarcity of grazing resources has triggered widespread atypical livestock migration, exacerbating conflict and competition over limited resources. Forecasted below-average deyr rainfall will likely result in further deterioration in livestock body conditions, birth rates, milk production, and an increase in drought-related diseases. Acute food insecurity is likely to increase across northern and central pastoral areas through January, amid high debt burdens and declining livestock holdings.
In southern pastoral areas, rapid pasture degradation is a growing concern as of August, most critically in coastal areas and parts of Bakool, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and the Juba regions. Although above-average April-June gu rainfall in these areas temporarily improved the availability of pasture, browse, and water, subsequent below-average June to August xagaa rains, combined with elevated temperatures, accelerated deterioration of vegetation conditions. By late August, vegetation cover declined to less than 60 percent of the LTM in several areas. Forecasted below-average deyr rainfall will likely limit seasonal pasture replenishment and may disrupt typical migration patterns. This trend will likely adversely affect livestock body conditions, milk production, and household food and income access.
According to Food Security Cluster (FSC) data, a significant reduction in global humanitarian funding has critically constrained humanitarian operational capacity in Somalia. As of August 2025, FSC partners have received less than 20 percent of the required funding under the Humanitarian Needs Response Plan, forcing cutbacks in operations and limiting assistance to an average of approximately 940,000 individuals per month between January and July 2025. While from August to December 2025, FSC partners initially planned to reach 1.26 million people monthly, the updated target population has been reduced to 375,000 individuals monthly in November and December. Beyond narrowing beneficiary coverage, partners have also reduced food or cash assistance rations from 80 to 70 percent of the Minimum Expenditure Basket. Priority has been given to new IDPs, households with malnourished children under five, and pregnant and lactating women. IDPs in settlements are most reliant on food assistance and are of the highest concern.
Forecasters maintain moderate confidence in a credible alternative scenario of significantly below-average rainfall during the October to December deyr rainfall season, which would shift the current outlook. This scenario would likely result in deyr crop failure in south/central and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zones and significantly limit pasture and water availability in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones across the country. These conditions would likely increase resource-based conflict and drive further drought- and conflict-induced displacement. Livestock losses would intensify, reducing milk availability for consumption and income generation, particularly in northern and central regions. More displaced populations would move into IDP settlements, increasing competition for labor and self-employment, leading to declines in income from labor, charcoal production, and firewood sales. This worst-case scenario would likely lead to a rapid deterioration of acute food insecurity and livelihoods.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Somalia Key Message Update August 2025: Needs likely to increase in north and central areas with below-average deyr forecast, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.