After disrupted gu production season, below-average deyr rainfall is likely

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Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through at least January 2025 in Somalia. Although the positive impacts of three consecutive seasons of average to above-average rainfall on crop and livestock production have supported gradual recovery among households that were badly impacted by the 2020-2022 drought, high food assistance needs persist due to ongoing conflict, severe flooding, high food prices, and limited income-earning opportunities. Despite access constraints in much of the conflict-affected southern and central regions, humanitarian partners provided food assistance to an average of less than 1.3 million people monthly from June to August 2024. However, due to funding shortages, this assistance covered only approximately 35-40 percent of FEWS NET’s estimated population in need of food aid during that period. Amid ongoing conflict-related displacement and the long-standing impacts of flooding and drought, internally displaced persons (IDPs) in settlements have minimal income-generating opportunities, limited access to food, and depleted coping capacity, with decreasing humanitarian assistance. All settlements hosting displaced populations are expected to face either Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
In riverine areas, poor xagaa rainfall and flooding from the above-average karan rainfall have further constrained typical off-season crop cultivation. As such, income from crop sales and agricultural labor will be insufficient to offset losses incurred due to flooding during the main gu season. Along the Shabelle River, both cereal and cash crop planting have been severely affected by poor xagaa rainfall combined with inadequate and costly irrigation in downstream districts (Qorioley, Barava, Kurtunwaarrey, and Sablaale), and by episodic river flooding due to above-average karan rainfall in Ethiopia and unrepaired open river breakages. From June to August, flooding in Jowhar and Balcad districts of Middle Shabelle Region inundated approximately 27,150 hectares of cropland. Similar challenges are impacting production along the Juba River, compounded by widespread conflict and insecurity. Many households have either suspended cultivation entirely or harvested maize prematurely to sell as fodder. Due to the loss of main season crops and interference with off-season recessional cultivation activities, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to persist through August in riverine areas of Middle Shabelle, with most riverine areas facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least January 2025.
Across agropastoral and riverine areas, approximately 49,400 metric tons of cereal were harvested during the July gu harvest: this is only 44 percent of the long-term mean (LTM; 1995-2023), slightly below the five-year average (which includes several consecutive poor harvests in recent years), and 66 percent of the 2023 gu harvest. The reduced production this year followed erratic gu rainfall distribution from April to June and the early cessation of rainfall in early May. Poor xagaa rainfall in July and August has also negatively impacted crop yields. Crop pests, including stemborer and bush cricket infestations, and high rates of quelea bird attacks have also caused significant crop damage; desert locusts have not been reported. Production losses are expected to be most significant in Southern Rainfed Agropastoral, Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, and Southern Agropastoral livelihood zones. Meanwhile, below-average rainfall is forecast for the upcoming October to December deyr season and is likely to contribute to a fourth consecutive season of below-average crop production. Due to crop losses and reduced agricultural labor income, revised analysis indicates that the crop-dependent Sorghum High Potential and Bay Bakool Low Potential livelihood zones are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Most other agropastoral areas are expected to continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with a greater-than-anticipated share of the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
In the Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, the gu yellow maize production failed due to poor rainfall. Farmers have intensified long-cycle white sorghum cropping activities given favorable late July to August karan rains, but chronic pest infestations and difficulty accessing inputs will likely prevent any significant improvements in crop yields. The Somaliland Ministry of Agriculture and FSNAU crop performance assessment in July estimated that around 12,550 MT of cereals will be harvested in November, 62 percent below the 2010-2023 Pictoral Evaluation Tool (PET) average. Most households are expected to use and sell harvested crops as fodder rather than as food for household consumption. At present, food and income from cattle milk production are seasonally low, and very low cattle births are expected in December. Medium goat kidding is expected in October/November. However, despite slight improvements in food and income access following the harvest and goat kidding, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist due to multiple seasons of deficit crop production and poor income, high debt burden, and limited anticipated income generation from crop sales or livestock production.
In northern and central pastoral areas, improved rangeland conditions, higher livestock birth rates, and increased milk production due to above-average gu rainfall are expected to improve food security for poor households through December, despite challenges associated with the forecasted below-average deyr rainfall beginning in October. The increase in livestock sales and milk production will likely offset high staple food prices and contribute to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in most areas. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the Addun and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones of the central regions, which were badly impacted during the 2020-2022 drought. Households in these areas continue to face below-baseline livestock holdings and milk production, inadequate income from livestock and milk sales, and high imported food prices. In southern pastoral areas, food insecurity is generally less severe as households tend to have more livestock compared to north-central Somalia. However, pastoral households in Juba are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes caused by lower-than-normal pasture and water availability driven by poor xagaa rainfall from July to September. These Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist through the projected below-average deyr rains from October to December due to the deterioration of pasture and livestock body conditions and value in the worst-affected areas.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Somalia Key Message Update August 2024: After disrupted gu production season, below-average deyr rainfall is likely, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.