Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur if food assistance plans do not materialize

• Somalia, where up to 7.1 million people are acutely food insecure amid extreme drought, would likely face its second Famine (IPC Phase 5) [1] in just over a decade in the absence of humanitarian food assistance. The provisional results of a household survey conducted by FSNAU, FEWS NET, and partners in Bay Region in late June indicate acute food insecurity has rapidly worsened since April despite ongoing food assistance deliveries, as evidenced by increased hunger and use of emergency coping strategies. This evidence comes amid a decline in cases of acute watery diarrhea/cholera, suggesting hunger is increasingly a driver of atypically high levels of acute malnutrition in the upper end of the Critical (15-29.9 percent) range and excess adult and child mortality. FEWS NET and FSNAU first identified a Risk of Famine [2] in Somalia in February. A sustained scale-up of food and nutrition assistance is needed urgently to mitigate the loss of life in Somalia.

• More specifically, the above evidence indicates over 20 percent of the population in Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone and parts of Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone have large food consumption gaps or can only mitigate their hunger by liquidating their assets, traveling to displacement sites in search of food aid, or begging for food. These conditions are occurring even though food assistance reached over 25 percent of the population in Bay Region and over 50 percent of the population in Bakool Region, on average, between April and June, based on reports from the Food Security Cluster. Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes are likely ongoing, meaning Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur in the absence of humanitarian food assistance.

• Furthermore, confidence in the forecast of an unprecedented, fifth below-average rainfall season during the October to December 2022 deyr season has strengthened due to the emergence of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole alongside persistent La Niña conditions. These climate conditions mirror that of 2010 and 2016, raising extreme concern for a sixth consecutive season of poor harvests due to weather shocks and a precipitous increase in drought-related livestock deaths. As a result, averting Famine (IPC Phase 5) will hinge on the delivery of large-scale and sustained humanitarian food assistance. [3] Currently, it is expected that Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes – associated with excess hunger-related mortality – with some households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are most likely to continue in parts of rural Bay and Bakool and emerge in sites hosting internally displaced people (IDP) in Baidoa. If food assistance plans do not materialize, then FEWS NET and FSNAU assess Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur in these areas.

• In March 2022, five additional areas were determined to have a Risk of Famine, including Hawd Pastoral (central and Hiiraan regions) and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones and sites hosting displaced populations in Mogadishu, Gaalkacyo in Mudug Region, and Dhusamareb in Galgaduud Region. It is possible that these areas or additional areas in Somalia could also face Famine (IPC Phase 5) in the absence of food assistance; household survey data to make this determination will be available at the end of the post-gu IPC workshop in late August. At a minimum, however, widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes – associated with excess hunger-related mortality – will most likely persist, given that the level of need in Somalia continues to outpace funding for food and nutrition assistance deliveries.

  [1] Famine (IPC Phase 5) occurs when at least 20 percent of the population in a given area have an extreme lack of food; the Global Acute Malnutrition prevalence (measured by weight-for-height z-score) exceeds 30 percent; and mortality (measured by the Crude Death Rate) exceeds 2 per 10,000 per day.

  [2] A Risk of Famine occurs when Famine is not the most likely scenario, but there is a credible alternative scenario in which Famine would be the likely result.

  [3] Assumptions regarding the delivery of humanitarian food assistance are detailed on page 12.

In May 2022, FEWS NET, FSNAU, and partners warned that eight areas in Somalia faced a Risk of Famine if crop and livestock production failed, food prices remained high or rose even further, and food aid did not reach populations in need. Agropastoral areas in Bay Region were of particularly grave concern, as household survey data collected by FSNAU and WFP in late April/early May confirmed Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) levels were approaching the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold of 30 percent and adult and child mortality rates had reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) thresholds in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts. At the time, food consumption and livelihood coping data were much less severe, which likely reflected the effects of increased community support during Ramadan and ongoing humanitarian food assistance. Taken together, these findings suggested that concurrent AWD/cholera and measles outbreaks in Bay Region were primarily driving elevated death rates, since high GAM and mortality levels typically occur after prolonged food consumption deficits. Nevertheless, this conclusion did not preclude the Risk of Famine.

Since May, field and remote monitoring information have increasingly pointed to localized crop production failure in agropastoral areas in Bay Region and neighboring Bakool Region, and the price of sorghum – the mainstay of the local diet in these regions – surged to set new historical records in the towns of Baidoa and Xudur. Now, the provisional results of a new household survey and focus group discussions conducted by FSNAU, FEWS NET, and partners in rural and IDP areas in Baidoa and Burhakaba in late June indicate a significant increase in the severity of household food consumption deficits and the use of emergency livelihood coping strategies, despite ongoing food assistance deliveries. For instance, there are sharp increases in the number of people who regularly go a whole day without eating, forego eating in order to give food to their children, or resort to begging or eating spoiled fruit to mitigate their hunger. Many people are subsisting on diets composed only of cereals, vegetable oil, and tea with small amounts of powdered milk. To date, acute food insecurity is more pronounced in rural areas compared to IDP sites in Baidoa, though GAM and mortality levels remain very high across both population groups.

As a result, FEWS NET and FSNAU assess Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes are likely ongoing in rural Baidoa and Burhakaba districts, meaning that Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur in the absence of food assistance. Based on the similarity of local livelihood systems, similarity of ongoing shocks, and ground conditions, FEWS NET and FSNAU infer that Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) is also ongoing in several adjacent areas of Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones. At this time, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is likely ongoing in Baidoa IDP sites; looking forward, however, the Baidoa IDP sites are also expected to face Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) through at least January. The forecast of a fifth consecutive poor rainy season in late 2022, exacerbated by the impacts of the Ukraine crisis on imported food prices and the impacts of protracted conflict/insecurity within Somalia, signals further deterioration in food security conditions. Consequently, averting Famine (IPC Phase 5) will mainly depend on food and nutrition assistance deliveries. The Food Security Cluster’s distribution plans suggest at least 50 percent of the population in Bay and southern Bakool will receive food aid from July to September. While the FSC’s plans beyond September are not yet confirmed, donor funding for a scale-up in food aid has sharply increased and humanitarian agencies have said they intend to prioritize households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), especially in the areas that have a Risk of Famine.

Household survey data to assess if Famine (IPC Phase 5) would also be likely in other areas of the country in the absence of food assistance will not be available until the post-gu workshop in late August. For now, FEWS NET and FSNAU assess that Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, at a minimum, will likely be widespread across Somalia given the extreme drought and associated erosion of household coping capacity. The Risk of Famine will also persist. Food assistance distributions have remained well below the estimated 45 percent of the Somali population that needs food assistance to prevent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes (Figure 1), inclusive of over 2.1 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and over 200,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Furthermore, there are two important caveats regarding food assistance assumptions, including that inadequate funding of the 2022 Humanitarian Response Plan may lead to a decline in total beneficiaries nationwide and that access issues persist in insurgent-controlled areas. A sustained scale-up of food and nutrition assistance beyond currently planned and funded levels is needed urgently to mitigate the loss of life in Somalia.

Current Situation

Rainfall: The April to June 2022 gu rainfall season was among the top three driest gu seasons on the historical record across most of Somalia. Based on an extended historical analysis conducted by the NOAA's Climate Hazards Center, rainfall deficits were among the most severe in at least the last 70 years. The season marks Somalia’s fourth consecutive poor rainfall season, and integrated analyses of this drought's length, extent, and severity also suggest that it is the most extensive and persistent drought since 1981. By comparison, the ongoing drought has a longer span than the 2010-2011 and 2016-2017 droughts that lasted two and three seasons, respectively. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which measures drought conditions, indicates that drought is most severe in 13 out of the 18 regions of the country. These regions include Bari, Sanaag, Nugaal, Togdheer, Sool, and parts of Woqooyi Galbeed in northern Somalia; Galgaduud and Mudug in central Somalia; and Gedo, Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool, and parts of Bay in southern Somalia.

The onset of the rains was delayed by nearly three weeks in some areas, while the rains never became established in the northeast and in most of the northwest. By the season’s end, rainfall deficits ranged from 40 to 70 percent below average across much of the country, according to the remote-sensing data (CHIRPS) (Figure 2). Furthermore, the temporal and spatial distribution was extremely poor across most areas, meaning that even though some southern and northern areas accumulated only slight to moderate seasonal rainfall deficits, the timing of rainfall did not support the recovery of crop or livestock production. The failed rains have been amplified by hot air temperatures, increased water evaporation, and vegetation desiccation.

Only a few localized pastoral areas received some relief from the rains, and that relief has been short-lived. The shortened length of the season and very high demand for water among people, livestock, and vegetation is leading to rapid over-grazing and depletion of water sources. These localized areas include: parts of Northwest Agropastoral, West Golis Pastoral, and Hawd Pastoral livelihoods zones in northern Somalia; parts of Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and Cowpea Belt Agropastoral areas in central Somalia; and the most of Lower and Middle Juba in southern Somalia.

While cumulative rainfall totals approached near average levels in localized parts of the south, the rainy season was delayed, rainfall days were poorly distributed, and the season ended early. Part of the coastal and adjacent inlands areas of the Juba and Shabelle regions and southern Bay Region have received moderate xagaa showers so far. Although the showers have improved access to pasture and water and supported some crop growth for typical and late-planted crops, high demand for these resources amid the drought is again limiting the degree of recovery for livestock and crop yields.

Agricultural production: The 2022 gu harvest is slated to be Somalia’s fifth consecutive below-average harvest (Figure 3), a trend driven by flooding during the 2020 gu and persistent drought since the 2020 deyr, which have both led to widespread, large-scale population displacement away from farms. FSNAU, FEWS NET, and partners are currently working to collect and analyze field assessment information that will result in an official estimate of 2022 gu cereal crop production in southern Somalia. In the interim, available field information, past production levels in similar drought years, and remote monitoring tools suggest the 2022 gu harvest will be around 40-60 percent below average, with sub-national instances of crop failure.

Cash crop production in southern and central Somalia, as well as cowpea production in Cowpea Belt Agropastoral areas of Mudug, Galgaduud, and Middle Shabelle, are also assessed to be below normal. Drought, limited availability and access to irrigation equipment, and damage from pests (especially Quelea birds) are responsible for significantly below-average crop performance in most rainfed agropastoral areas and most rainfed and irrigated riverine areas. Many farmers either lacked the financial capacity to purchase seeds and inputs with cash or credit after multiple poor rainfall seasons or abandoned their planting and weeding activities due to poor cropping conditions. In many cases, seed germination simply failed or growing crops wilted at an early stage due to moisture stress. In addition, the large-scale displacement of rural households away from their farms to IDP sites also contributed to a reduction in planted acreage.

Based on provisional crop assessment information in southern agropastoral areas, gu cereal and cash crop losses are highest in Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle, Hiiraan, and Gedo, including in Southern Agropastoral, Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones. Typically, Bay and Middle Shabelle regions contribute more than 40 percent of Somalia’s annual cereal production, while the contribution of Bakool, Hiiraan, Gedo, and Lower Juba to total national production is minimal. Meanwhile, agropastoral cropping areas in Lower and Middle Juba are reportedly doing relatively better. According to key informants, around 70-80 percent of standing sorghum, maize, and cash crops were in fair condition, though yields have likely been reduced by below-average rainfall. Crop development in these areas is relatively more favorable among late-planted off-season crops due to the ongoing June to September xagaa showers, especially in Badhaadhe, Jamame, Jilib, and Kismayo districts. Cropping conditions for off-season crops in xagaa-receiving areas of Lower Shabelle are more uncertain, given cumulative rainfall deficits in rainfed areas in Afgoye, Marka, Qoryoley and Baraawe districts.

Similarly, provisional crop assessment information in riverine areas indicates poor to failed prospects for both main season and off-season recessional cultivation production in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle regions. Drought is the main cause of poor cropping conditions, even though episodic, localized flooding occurred due to unrepaired river breakages, such as in Boodaale village in Jowhar district of Middle Shabelle. In Lower Shabelle, downstream areas of the Shabelle River were completely dry and all irrigation sources were completely suspended as of late June. Overall, off-season cropping conditions in these three regions are unlikely to notably recover during the xagaa showers due to high water demand, insurgent control of irrigation infrastructure, and stiff competition for access to water. Cropping conditions are slightly better in Lower and Middle Juba riverine areas, owing to better rainfall, higher river water levels, and higher access to water pumps for irrigation. However, armed conflict between the insurgents and the Somali armed forces supported by the African Union Transition Mission have offset these gains in Jamame and Kismayo districts, causing farmers to suspend cropping activities in areas along the tarmac road linking Kismayo to Jilib.

In agropastoral areas in northwestern Somalia, poor gu rainfall has resulted in the failure of short-cycle sorghum and maize crops in Togdheer, Awdal, and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. However, while no cereal harvest is expected in July, there is potential for recovery of long-cycle sorghum for 

the karan harvest in November due to the forecast of above-average rainfall from July to September in the karan-dependent areas of Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone. In Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone, which does not receive enough rain to produce long-cycle crops, farmers will likely rely on the karan rains over the neighboring West Golis mountains to cause flash floods, which would support grass fodder production for livestock and support ratoon red sorghum cultivation as a substitute for the gu harvest.

Rangeland and water resources: Due to the failed gu rains, rangelands and water conditions are poor in north-central Somalia and below-average to poor in the southern regions of Somalia, as captured by both satellite-derived data (Figure 4) and field assessments. In the north-central and southern areas, most berkads, water catchments, and communal dams were empty in June, which is very atypical at this time of year. Rural people, especially in north-central Somalia and various parts of the south, currently face acute water shortages and must purchase water from water trucks that source water from distant permanent boreholes. Most poor pastoral households cannot purchase enough water due to ever decreasing sources of income during the protracted drought. In Xudun town of Sool Region, the price of a 20-liter jerrycan was SOS 33,000 in May, which is six to seven times higher than May 2021, the five-year average (2017-2021), and May 2017. The trend is similar, although less severe, in the villages of Jalam (Nugaal), Kalabaydh (Bari), and Garadag (Sanaag), where the price of the 20-liter jerrycan ranged from 60 to 125 percent higher than last year and the five-year average. In Galkacyo (Mudug) and Cabudwaq (Galgaduud), water prices are 25-100 percent and 54-57 percent higher, respectively, than last year and the average.

In the northwest, pasture and water resources in most of Sool, Sanaag, and Togdheer regions are extremely poor, leading to mass livestock migration through June, including significant out-migration from Hawd Pastoral areas into areas across the border in Ethiopia. At the same time, livestock in Bari, Nugaal, and Sanaag moved atypically into Sool and Nugaal regions in the northeast. Conversely, the rangeland resources are relatively better in quality yet below average in most parts of Guban, Northwest Agropastoral, and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones. In the northeast, field reports indicate rangelands and water resources are among the worst ever observed during the gu rainfall season. Substantial atypical livestock migration has occurred from Coastal Deeh Pastoral, Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP), and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones into areas of Hawd Pastoral in the northeast and other pastoral areas of Sool. Pasture, browse, and water availability are also poor to below average in the south-central regions, though these areas typically receive more rainfall compared to north-central.

Livestock production:  According to FSNAU, over 3 million livestock mortalities occurred between July 2021 and April 2022 due to drought. This figure represents an approximate total mortality rate of 6 percent. The greatest livestock mortalities are reported in Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Bakool, Bay, and Gedo (Figure 5). Successive seasons of below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry and hot weather from December to late April, and an early start of the dry season in June caused livestock to undertake long trekking distances in search of water and pasture, which in turn led to significant deterioration in livestock body conditions, increased vulnerability to disease, and an atypical increase in livestock abortions and deaths. Notably, most sheep/goats, lactating animals, and young off-spring, which are susceptible to drought conditions, have lost their body weight. Additionally, from January to March, there were reports of drought-induced disease incidence that caused abortions and some deaths, which prompted pastoralists to cull their herds in Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in central Somalia and Northern Inland Pastoral areas in northern Somalia.

As a result, household access to own production (milk and meat) for consumption and sales is far below typical levels or completely unavailable. Milk production is low to minimal, as the few goats that gave birth in April are no longer producing milk and camel and cattle calving was also low to none. In addition, new off-springs delivered in late March and April are at high risk of not surviving the dry season given adverse drought conditions. Household livestock holdings have declined or stagnated in most livelihood zones, and many of the worst-affected households have lost most of their herd animals. As a result, pastoral and agropastoral households face significant reductions in their income-earning potential and many have been unable to afford their minimum water and food needs for months. In many pastoral areas, such as Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in central Somalia, livestock sales typically account for up to 80 percent of a household’s annual cash income, but their holdings were already 30-70 percent below baseline levels in December and have since further declined. This trend is due not only to excess deaths and lower reproduction levels, but also distress livestock sales as households seek to both mitigate the financial burden of sustaining their livestock and earn income to repay accumulated debts and cover the rising cost of living.

Markets and trade: According to the African Development Bank and World Bank analysis, Somalia registered an estimated GDP growth of 2.0 percent in 2021, driven by private consumption and livestock exports. Private consumption was boosted by remittances, which increased to an estimated 31.3 percent of GDP in 2021 from 30.8 percent in 2020. However, these benefits were not evenly distributed, and multiple shocks since 2020, including prolonged drought, floods, and COVID-19, have actually led to a slight increase in poverty levels, with the share of the population living below the international poverty line of USD 1.90 standing at nearly 69.7 percent in 2022 compared to 67.7 percent in 2019. Furthermore, household purchasing power is declining. Food inflation rose from 4.72 percent on an annual basis in June 2021 to 16.86 percent in June 2022, according to the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics, brought about by the large national cereal deficit during the prolonged drought and global grain and vegetable oil supply disruptions related to the Ukraine crisis.

As of June, domestic and regional cereal supply shortages have pushed local cereal prices to exorbitantly high levels across the south, while global supply-side constraints, high global fuel and shipping costs, conflict, and sub-national currency depreciation have caused price spikes in imported rice, vegetable oil, and wheat flour across most of the country. In June, local sorghum and maize prices ranged from 50 to 195 percent above the five-year average in most key reference markets in the south, while imported rice and wheat ranged from 60 to 80 percent above average across most key reference markets in central and northeastern Somalia. In Baidoa (Bay Region), Xudur (Bakool Region), Qoryoley (Lower Shabelle Region), Laasaanood (Sool Region), Bossasso (Bari Region), and Galkacyo (Mudug Region), the price of the preferred staple cereal was similar to or exceeded the record highs set during the 2010-2011 drought (Figure 6). Conversely, prices are trending near normal in Somaliland, which uses the more stable Somaliland Shilling currency, whereas the rest of Somalia uses the Somali Shilling. High fuel prices are another contributing factor to high local and imported food prices. One liter of diesel in Mogadishu, (Banaadir Region), for example, rose by over 50 percent from January to May 2022, reflecting a price increment of 80 and 95 percent compared to May of last year and the five-year average.

High staple food prices are the main driver of the decline in household purchasing power when measured against the amount of cereal a household can buy with the sale of a goat or a day’s labor wage. In general, inadequate livestock holdings and poor body conditions are the main limiting factor for household income in northern and central Somalia, where livestock prices are still generally above average due to the low market supply of salable animals and seasonal export demand for the Hajj. In southern Somalia, however, livestock prices have declined by about 20 percent, on average, when compared to the five-year average. This difference is mainly due to higher herd sizes and more salable livestock body conditions that permit poor households in the South to increase the level of distress livestock sales, which has in turn led to excess market supply given that effective local demand for livestock is currently low. As a result, the goat-to-cereals terms of trade are significantly below average across the country, but lowest in the south. In northern and central Somalia, the goat-to-rice terms of trade ranged from near average to 40 percent below the five-year average in June. In southern Somalia, the terms of trade for one goat against a kilo of maize or sorghum ranged from 50 to 75 percent below the five-year average in June, apart from Kismayo, where it was 25 percent below average. In general, the terms of trade are worse than observed during the 2016/2017 drought, but have not reached the record lows observed in 2011, such as in Baidoa in Bay Region (Figure 7).

In the South, the labor-to-cereals terms of trade declined at the peak of the gu cropping season from April to May, primarily due to low demand for agricultural labor during the drought. Poor farmers were reportedly able to obtain only five to ten days of farm labor work due to reduced planted acreage and the suspension of farming activities. In Bay Region, for instance, a day of casual labor in May 2022 could buy 4.3 kg of red sorghum on average, which is 65 and 72 percent lower than last year the five-year average. In Lower Juba, one day of labor wage could fetch 6 kg of white maize compared to 9 and 10 kg in 2021 and against the five-year average. Similar trends occurred in Middle and Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, and Gedo Regions.

Conflict and insecurity: The number of conflict-related incidents between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and insurgents has increased in 2022, most notably in Mudug, Galgaduud, and Hiiraan regions, due to the battle for control of towns and main villages. In addition, there are resurfaced armed clan-based conflicts over resources and land ownership in Galgaduud and Hiraan. Other areas disrupted by insecurity include Banaadir, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Gedo, Juba, Bay, and Bakool, where incidents such as targeted assassinations, roadside bombs, and armed clashes between militants and FGS forces, backed by the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), have been commonly reported in 2022. Conflict is driving illegal confiscation of assets, imposing harsh penalties including forceful deportation or even death, double taxation of commodities, increased travel distance to avoid roadblocks or illegal tax payments resulting in increased transportation costs, and localized food price increases in urban markets, such as in Xudur district in Bakool Region. This phenomenon puts additional pressure on household purchasing capacity and hampers food and market access.

Displacement: Based on UNHCR Protection and Return Monitoring Network (PRMN) data as of June, an estimated 817,000 people have been displaced due to drought since October of last year, just preceding the failed 2021 deyr rainfall season. This level is 30 percent higher than that observed during the same period of 2016/2017. Drought-related displacement rose sharply from May (33,000 people) to June (113,000 people) in anticipation of harsh conditions during the xagaa dry season. In Bay and Bakool, an average of 4-6 trucks were carrying displaced people to Mogadishu every day. Bay has seen the highest level of drought-related displacement, followed by Lower Shabelle, Galgaduud, and Mudug (Figure 8) during this period.

Despite a temporary increase in conflict-related displacement from Dhusamareb town, the highest levels of population displacement were observed in Bay, which accounted for 23 percent of the total population displaced between January and May 2022, followed by Galgaduud (18 percent), Mudug (15 percent), Lower Shabelle (9 percent) and Togdheer (7 percent). Given the increase in armed clashes, trade flows are increasingly restricted from reaching besieged towns such as Wajid and Xudur (Bakool), Dinsoor (Bay), Elbur and Xaradheere (Galgaduud), and Buloburte and Jalalaqsi (Hiiraan). There are recent reports of insurgents torching all of the goods that traders are trying to take into besieged towns, or killing both the men and the donkeys used for transporting the goods. These issues have pushed imported and local cereal prices to up to record highs.

Humanitarian food assistance: Food assistance levels scaled-up from reaching only 1.2 million people in January to over 3.3 million people in June, according to food assistance distribution reports from the Somalia Food Security Cluster. Given the unprecedented length of the drought and given that the drivers of acute food insecurity closely mirror the trends observed during the 2010/2011 and 2016/2017 droughts, it is highly likely that humanitarian assistance has continued to play a significant role in moderating the severity of food insecurity in many areas. Between April and June, the average number of people that received food aid monthly was 2.8 million people, or 18 percent of the national population. Approximately 40 percent of the population reached were located in southern Somalia, while around 40 percent were in the northern regions (see Annex following this report for mapped locations where food assistance reached at least 25 percent of the population in a given area). However, given the scale of need in Somalia, this critical scale-up is still reaching only around half of the population in need of food assistance.

The food consumption results of recent household surveys suggest that food assistance, coupled with recent community social support during Ramadan and Eid, has likely mitigated the severity of food consumption deficits in some locations. Nevertheless, the total number of people nationwide that need assistance outstrips available assistance levels. As a result, survey data and focus group discussions indicate that millions of people in Somalia still face widening food consumption gaps and/or use crisis or emergency livelihood coping strategies to mitigate those gaps, leading to increases in acute malnutrition. As a result, at least 20 percent of the population still likely faces Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in many areas. In the case of Bay and Bakool regions, these conditions are occurring even though food assistance reached over 25 percent of the population in Bay and over 50 percent of the population in Bakool, on average, between April and June.

Acute malnutrition and excess mortality: Monthly tracking of the number of children with moderate or severe acute malnutrition that were newly admitted to treatment and feeding centers has exhibited a sharp and concerning increase in 2022 (Figure 9), mirroring what occurred during the last severe drought in 2016/2017. As of June, the three-month rolling average was over 50 percent higher than the same period of 2021. This monitoring data reflects the continued severity of acute malnutrition since the last nutrition survey and analysis was conducted by FSNAU, FEWS NET, WFP-VAM, and other partners for the April 2022 IPC Update. The survey, which was conducted in 11 areas, found atypically high 'Critical' levels of global acute malnutrition (GAM) are present across much of Somalia. Agropastoral areas in Bay Region have shown the highest GAM levels, reaching the upper end of the range of Critical (15-29.9 percent) and approaching the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold of 30 percent. The increase is assessed to be driven by a combination of factors, with low food intake playing an increasingly important role on top of concurrent disease outbreaks of AWD/cholera and measles, typical increases in waterborne illness during the rainy season, and poor access to health services. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are also associated with elevated levels of child and adult mortality, and the survey results confirmed alarming increases in the Crude Death Rate (CDR) and the Under-Five Death Rate (U5DR) in Bay agropastoral areas and IDP sites in Baidoa, Mogadishu, and Kismayo. The most worrying increase was observed in agropastoral areas in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts, where both the U5DR and CDR have reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) threshold.

Current food security outcomes

Food assistance needs in Somalia are at record-high levels, with an estimated 45 percent of the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. Household food and income sources from crop and livestock production have drastically declined due to the four-season drought, which is the third such major drought to occur in just over a decade. Household coping capacity is further limited by the considerable, long-term constraints of protracted conflict and insecurity on trade and income-earning opportunities, especially in southern and central Somalia. Global supply shocks, primarily linked to the Ukraine crisis and lingering shipping and supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, are further exacerbating acute food insecurity conditions, primarily due to very high prices for imported staple foods such as rice, wheat, and vegetable oil. Given the widespread failure of the deyr rains in late 2021 and the gu rains in early 2022, the population in need of assistance is currently spread out across the country, though primarily concentrated in rural areas and IDP sites. The areas of highest concern include Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral of Bay Region, and Togdheer Agropastoral, Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones, as well as sites hosting large drought-displaced populations, including Baidoa in Bay Region, Mogadishu, Galkacyo in Mudug Region, and Dhusamareb in Galgaduud Region, all of which are assessed to face a Risk of Famine.

Pastoral areas: In northern and central pastoral areas of Somalia, the areas of highest concern include Addun Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral, Northern Inland Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones, where Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely ongoing. Pastoralists are entering the long June to September dry season, which overlaps with the biannual pastoral lean season. At this time, households face water shortages, the loss of livestock-related food and income, and significantly above-average prices of dietary staples such as rice and wheat, resulting in moderate to large food consumption gaps and elevated acute malnutrition levels. Poor livestock body conditions, declining herd sizes, and low livestock birth and conception rates mean most poor pastoralists in north-central Somalia face increasing difficulty selling their livestock for income to purchase food, even though livestock prices are above average and the terms of trade are better relative to the south. In other words, livestock have now become a financial liability for poor pastoralists, rather than an asset. Many households have turned to selling bush products, seeking employment in towns and villages, or soliciting social support from their community or relatives, but this is inadequate to substantially ameliorate food consumption gaps, especially given low consumer demand and high labor supply due to the economic impacts of drought. Even though food assistance has reached at least 25 percent of the population in many of these areas, parts of Addun and Coastal Deeh Pastoral still have humanitarian access challenges.

In southern pastoral areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely across most of Southern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are assessed in parts of the Juba and Shabelle regions due to less severe drought impacts on pasture and water resources. Juba Cattle Pastoral livelihood zone, in particular, has witnessed some improvement relative to late 2021/early 2022, with cattle gaining near-average body conditions. Overall, the wetter climatology relative to north-central pastoral areas has mitigated the scale of drought-related reductions in household livestock holdings. Nevertheless, households have either lost livestock to the drought or sold a significant proportion of their livestock for income, resulting in a trend of declining and below-average herd sizes. Increased livestock sales, coupled with high food prices, have driven the livestock-to-sorghum terms trade significantly below average in the south.

Agropastoral and riverine areas: In agropastoral and riverine cropping areas, Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral, Togdheer Agropastoral, parts of Southern Agropastoral, and Riverine Pump Irrigation livelihood zones are among the areas of highest concern with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse outcomes. Food assistance is likely preventing Famine (IPC Phase 5) in parts of Bay and Bakool Region, as reflected by the Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) classification. Households lack adequate, alternative sources of income to cope with large gu crop losses, reduced agricultural labor income, and shrinking herd sizes after two years of distress livestock sales. In addition, southern agropastoral areas have seen the steepest declines in their purchasing power compared to the rest of Somalia, due to skyrocketing maize and sorghum prices, limited labor demand, and falling livestock prices after five consecutive below-average harvests, particularly as distress sales increased the livestock supply on the market. Conflict, humanitarian access constraints, and the underlying vulnerabilities of marginalized groups also remain a concern, making it difficult for some communities to access food aid or access credit/loans and community support. Only a few areas in the south and northwest are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and this lower severity is explained by relatively better rainfall that has provided some relief for crop and livestock conditions, thereby avoiding a failed season and preventing severe shortfalls in food and income.

IDP and urban areas: All major IDP settlements in Somalia’s largest towns are areas of high concern, based on the large-scale influx of new IDP arrivals from drought-affected rural areas, the high concentration of long-term displaced people that depend on irregular, informal sources of income, and both groups’ high vulnerability to price shocks and acute malnutrition amid crowded and unhygienic conditions. While around 2.9 million IDPs have been displaced for years, the surge in drought-related displacement means these areas have received hundreds of thousands of people who recently became destitute. Many IDPs have weak social and clan ties and therefore lack access to vital social support mechanisms, a missing asset that rendered them more vulnerable to displacement in the first place. Based on household surveys conducted by FSNAU and other technical partners in December 2021 and subsequent analysis following repeat household surveys in severely affected areas during April, most of the main IDP settlements across Somalia are currently classified in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In addition, due to weakening purchasing capacity among the urban population resulting from soaring food prices and declining wage rates, most of the urban poor across Somalia have moderate to significant food consumption gaps and are currently classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Assumptions

The most likely scenario from June 2022 to January 2023 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

• Based on the gu rainfall performance and reduced planted acreage, the total main season cereal harvest in southern agropastoral, northwestern agropastoral, and riverine livelihood zones in July is expected to be 40-60 percent below average. On the sub-national level, near-to-total crop failure is expected in the worst drought-affected areas.
• Water and pasture/browse scarcity will be widespread until at least the start of the deyr season around mid-October, if not longer, across most of southern, central, and northeastern Somalia. The prolonged drought has already resulted in shortages, and seasonally windy and dry conditions and above-average temperatures will accelerate the depletion of any water and pasture/browse resources that the gu rains managed to regenerate.
• According to the NOAA/CPC NMME, WMO, and ECMWF C3S forecasts, the June to August coastal xagaa rains in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, and parts of Bay and Middle Juba regions will most likely be below average. While water and pasture/browse shortages may be less severe in these areas, rainfall deficits are expected to significantly impede late-planted and off-season crop growth, resulting in a below-average harvest in Southern Rainfed Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral areas in the Shabelle and Juba regions.
• Overall, the off-season harvest in riverine zones in August/September is expected to be significantly below average. According to weather forecasts, the June to September kiremt rains over the river catchments in the Ethiopian highlands are forecast to be above average. Typically, these rains and the xagaa showers raise the Juba and Shabelle Rivers and support irrigated crop cultivation in riverine areas. This year, however, river conditions are too dry to regenerate sufficiently to support recessional crop cultivation for off-season crops, especially in Lower Shabelle region.
• According to the NOAA/CPC NMME, WMO, and ECMWF C3S forecasts, the June to August karan rains in northwestern Somalia are forecast to be above average with a timely onset. The rains are expected to seasonally replenish water and pasture/browse for livestock and support cereal and cash crop growth, likely resulting in an near-to-below average karan sorghum harvest in October/November in Northwestern Agropastoral zone.
• The NOAA/CPC NMME,  WMO, and ECMWF C3S forecast models predict strong chances (50-80 percent) that the October to December 2022 deyr rains will be below average, which would result in a record-breaking five-season drought. The forecast is driven by enhanced Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients (the Western Pacific Gradient), the likelihood of La Niña conditions, and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole in late 2022. Based on deyr rainfall performance in years with similar climate conditions, rainfall will likely be 30-60 percent of average in worst-affected areas (Figure 10).
• The December to January xays rains in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in northwestern Somalia are likely to be below average.
• Based on the rainfall forecast and cropping conditions, agricultural labor demand is expected to be far below normal in southern agropastoral areas and below normal in riverine areas through January. In Northwestern and Togdheer Agropastoral zones, labor demand is expected to remain very low until July, before rebounding to near-normal levels in Northwestern Agropastoral zone for the karan season.
• Given the anticipated severity of water scarcity and pasture/browse desiccation across most of Somalia through September, it will require more water than usual to regenerate these resources during the deyr rainfall season. Since the deyr rains are also forecast to be below average, water and pasture/browse shortages are expected to persist across most southern agropastoral areas and most central and northeastern pastoral areas, driving widespread atypical livestock migration patterns. Relatively better resource availability is likely in riverine areas, areas that receive xagaa showers in the south, and areas that receive karan rains in the northwest. However, this will likely attract an atypical influx of livestock migrating from drought-affected areas, driving faster depletion.
• Based on poor rangeland conditions, cumulative livestock mortality rates will likely reach at least 10 to 30 percent through September. The highest losses are expected in central and northeastern Somalia, along with southern pastoral areas in Gedo and Bakool. Additional livestock losses are possible in these areas during the deyr, though there is uncertainty given that the degree of rainfall deficits during the deyr will vary. Livestock deaths are expected to be lowest in areas that receive xagaa rains in the south and karan rains in the northwest.
• Poor rangeland conditions will continue to result in poor to emaciated livestock body conditions and increased livestock disease incidence in most of central and northeastern Somalia and parts of southern Somalia (Bakool, Gedo) through at least September, leading to increased occurrences of livestock abortion and very low birth rates across species. In areas that receive xagaa and karan rains, however, livestock health will likely relatively improve after July, facilitating some births. Low to medium camel/cattle calving is expected in most of the south, while medium to low goat/sheep kidding is expected in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, the Juba regions, and the Shabelle regions in October/November.
• Based on the above livestock production conditions, milk availability for household consumption and sales will remain significantly below normal through January across most of the country.
• Sorghum and maize prices are expected to remain extremely high or will rise even further due to the increasingly tight supplies resulting from multiple consecutive below-average harvests within Somalia, in addition to tight supply in regional source markets like Ethiopia and rising fuel prices that are increasing food transportation costs. Based on FEWS NET’s analysis of price dynamics in Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle Region, and Baidoa, Bay Region, the price of a kilogram of sorghum or maize is projected to range from 85 to 200 percent above the five-year average in the south. In northern markets like Hargeysa, where demand for imported rice and wheat typically exceeds demand for sorghum and maize, prices are projected to be 25-45 percent above average.
• Imported staple food prices, including rice, wheat, vegetable oil, and sugar, are expected to remain atypically high or rise even further due to external supply shocks and the depreciation of the Somali Shilling (SOS). The impact of the Ukraine crisis on global grain, cooking oil, and fuel prices – compounded by the number of countries that are enacting export restrictions on grains and cooking oil and by persistently high ocean shipping costs – will likely continue throughout 2022. Meanwhile, the depreciation of the SOS is linked to increased demand for USD to cover rising import costs. The Somaliland Shilling (SLS), however, has remained stable thus far and is likely to remain stable, with only slight fluctuations.
• In general, household income from livestock sales is expected to remain very low due to the poor health and low salability of their livestock and sharp declines in household livestock holdings since mid-2021. While retail livestock prices are expected to fall in some markets due to an increase in supply due to distress sales, retail livestock prices in many central and northern areas will likely remain favorable given that the supply of livestock has remained historically low since the 2016/2017 drought. Furthermore, there is a seasonal increase in export demand between Ramadan in May and the Hajj in August. Based on FEWS NET’s analysis of these factors, the price of a local quality goat is expected to range from near average to 20 percent below the five-year average in Burao, Toghdeer Region, and in Baidoa, Bay Region. In Galkacyo, Mudug Region, the price of a local goat is expected to trend 15-25 percent above average. 
• Household purchasing power measured by the goat-to-cereal terms of trade is expected to be significantly below average, driven primarily by high food prices and exacerbated by falling livestock prices in a few markets. While the labor-to-cereal terms of trade are expected to follow seasonal trends with an uptick around the harvest and planting periods in July, September/October, and January, the terms of trade will largely remain below average.
• Insurgent attacks in the form of improvised explosive device and mortar attacks as well as target assassinations are expected to continue in Mogadishu and across south-central Somalia, mainly targeting government officials, members of the security forces, and high-value military locations. The attacks are expected to continue to restrict humanitarian access, cause displacement, impede household engagement in livelihood activities, and restrict trade, particularly in Lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Hiiraan, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Galgaduud regions.
• Clan conflicts over resource and land management are likely to continue escalating from already elevated levels (when compared to 2020-2021) in areas affected by the ongoing drought, including Hiiraan, Galgaduud, Lower Shabelle, and Mudug regions. Based on past trends, these conflicts will likely result in violence against civilians and will intermittently disrupt trade, population and livestock movements, and agricultural activities.
• Based on plans provided by the Somalia Food Security Cluster for the period of July to September, humanitarians plan to reach over 4.5 million people on average per month with food assistance. Historical trends suggest the full monthly target will not be met, either due to insufficient annual funding relative to total needs, humanitarian access constraints in hard-to-reach areas, and/or difficulty accessing some marginalized groups. In Bay Region and southern Bakool Region, humanitarians plan to reach at least 50 percent of the population, on average, per month. An important caveat is that the analysis of the share of the population to be reached is based on the official population figures for these areas as of mid-2021 and does not reflect more recent changes in the size of the population inhabiting these areas due to drought-related displacement in mid-to-late 2021 and 2022. Given that over 817,000 people nationally have been displaced due to the drought since the 2021 deyr, and that Baidoa is one of the largest IDP destinations, it is likely that the share of the population that is currently residing in these areas and targeted for food aid is lower than 50 percent.
• The FSC has not yet provided or confirmed its food assistance plans for the period of October to January. Nevertheless, this scenario assumes at least 25 percent of the population will be reached in areas of highest concern. Information from the Financial Tracking System for the 2022 Humanitarian Response Plan reflects a sharp increase in funding for food security interventions. In addition, OCHA reports that humanitarians will expand food assistance to reach more drought-affected people in the coming months due to an increase in donor funding. Humanitarian agencies have also indicated that future plans are likely to prioritize households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and areas facing a Risk of Famine, though inadequate funding of the 2022 Humanitarian Response Plan may lead to a decline in total beneficiaries nationwide.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

With the record-breaking drought likely to continue for a fifth consecutive season, an immediate and continued scale-up of food and nutrition assistance is necessary to mitigate the loss of life and avert a prolonged humanitarian catastrophe in Somalia. In parts of Bay and Bakool regions, averting Famine (IPC Phase 5) will hinge on the delivery of large-scale and sustained humanitarian food assistance. Given that the scale of need in Somalia outstrips available funds, currently funded levels of food assistance are inadequate to prevent the Risk of Famine or prevent Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes from persisting through January. Food security outcomes only deteriorated over the course of the April-June 2022 gu season, despite the delivery of aid, and this suggests the severity of household hunger and erosion of livelihoods and coping capacity will likely worsen further in the near to medium term. Dry and hot conditions will exacerbate water shortages and livestock deaths through September, while the poor gu harvest in July and exorbitant local and imported staple food prices will further diminish household purchasing power throughout the year. Prospects for relief are slim during the October-December deyr rainy season, given that anticipated poor rainfall will be insufficient to support deyr crop and livestock production activities. The deyr rains will most likely bring yet another season of water shortages, declining livestock holdings, low livestock salability, and cereal shortages, resulting in further loss of life, destitution, and population displacement in search of humanitarian aid. The next opportunity for recovery will not occur until the gu rains arrive in April 2023.

Pastoral areas: Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to remain widespread in the areas that are worst affected by the drought, and it is likely that there will be households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). As the dry season wears on with few prospects of relief during the deyr, households in the poor and middle wealth groups households will be increasingly unable to care for their remaining livestock, resulting in excess livestock mortalities and a likely increase in destitution and displacement. Among those that retain a small number of livestock holdings, households will face increasing difficulty preventing widening food consumption deficits amid high food prices, the rising costs of keeping their livestock alive, and already high debt levels. Milk consumption and sales will also be extremely low given little to no calving this year, and other income sources (such as charcoal and firewood collection) will likely be too little to cover the cost of soaring food prices. Hawd Pastoral and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones are among the areas of highest concern, as these areas have already seen extremely poor rainfall, clan conflict, sharp declines in livestock holdings, and rising levels of destitution and large-scale displacement lead to elevated GAM and mortality levels, suggesting a Risk of Famine will persist in these areas.

Agropastoral and riverine areas: Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes and a Risk of Famine are expected to persist in Bay Bakool Agropastoral and parts of Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones. Meanwhile, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to continue in Southern Agropastoral of Hiiraan and Gedo regions, Cowpea Belt Agropastoral of central regions, Togdheer Agropastoral in the northwest, and Riverine Pump Irrigation livelihood zone. Many of these areas are also likely to have some households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), particularly in districts with low humanitarian access. These areas are the most likely areas to experience crop failure for the July harvest and/or a minimal off-season harvest in August, based on available field information. With little to no harvest stocks, significantly below-normal income from agricultural labor, limited milk and income from livestock, and falling purchasing power, an increasing number of households in these areas are expected to liquidate their livestock holdings in order to buy food, sell parts or all of their farmland in order to repay debts, and/or resort to begging or traveling to displacement sites in search of humanitarian aid. Hundreds of thousands of farmers will likely be unable to repay accumulated debts in order to purchase food or agricultural inputs after multiple poor to failed harvests, raising the likelihood that the below-average deyr rains will also be accompanied by low planted acreage and result in another very poor harvest in January 2023. The areas that received relatively better gu rainfall in 2022, such as the Juba regions, and areas that receive xagaa and karan rainfall in mid-2022, are expected to see Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In Riverine Gravity Irrigation livelihood zone, the availability of wild foods and higher demand for agricultural labor on cash crop farms (citrus and vegetables) will also likely alleviate the severity of food insecurity.

IDP and urban areas: In Baidoa IDP sites, where new arrivals from drought-affected areas are concentrated and have already exhibited sharp declines in food consumption, Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) is expected. Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected across all other IDP settlements due to the influx of new IDP arrivals, worsening of staple food price shocks, insufficient income that will limit food access, and the stretching of limited social support mechanisms. A Risk of Famine is assessed in Baidoa, Mogadishu, Gaalkayco, and Dhusamareb. Given the influx of newly displaced households to these areas, there is increasing concern for an increase in competition for limited income-generating opportunities, a decline in food assistance coverage, and a rising trend of evictions of IDPs. The associated increase in the labor supply and competition for work opportunities, coupled with high food prices, are also expected to increase food insecurity among the urban poor, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes largely expected.

Table 1. Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario.

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