Poor Gu rains and river flooding likely to result in below-average production

• An increasing number of poor households is expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity in southern, central, and northeastern regions through September. Below-average and erratically distributed Gu rainfall in these areas has caused significant crop destruction, reduced agricultural labor opportunities, and caused poor than usual generation of pasture and water resources, reducing livestock productivity. 

• The Gu harvest in July is expected to be below average in Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and the Cowpea Belt, as a result of below-average and erratic Gu rainfall. Additionally, heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands led to river floods that inundated crops, further reducing harvest prospects. Given that Bay and Lower Shabelle are high-production regions, poor harvests in these areas will result in below-average production nationally. 

• There is a high likelihood of a La Niña event occurring throughout the Deyr rainy season. La Niña events are associated with below-average rainfall over the Horn of Africa and, as a result, the October to December Deyr season is forecast to be below average. It is likely this will lead to poor Deyr production and fail to adequately restore pasture and water resources. An increasing number of households throughout Somalia will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October 2016 through January 2017.  

Current Situation

Food security has improved in most pastoral livelihood zones since April with the end of the Jilaal dry season and start of the Gu rains. In most agropastoral areas, food security has similarly improved. However, in the riverine livelihood zones of Lower and Middle Juba and Lower and Middle Shabelle, food security has deteriorated due to a combination of poor Gu rainfall, river floods which have inundated crops, and reduced agricultural labor opportunities.

• Gu rainfall performance varied across the country (Figure 1). The April to June Gu rains started on time and was normal in distribution and total amount in most of the Northwest. However, in most southern, central, and northeastern regions, rains started one to two weeks late, was below-average, and ended atypically in early May.  
  • In the North, average to above-average rainfall with normal distribution was received in Guban Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral, West Golis Pastoral, and Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zones. Additionally, Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Sool and Sanaag received average rainfall. However, in Northern Inland Pastoral, East Golis Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh livelihood zones, as well as in parts of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari and Nugaal, rainfall was erratic and below average.
  • In the central regions, light to moderate rains fell in late April and early May in most of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone and in parts of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone. In large parts of the Cowpea Belt and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone, Gu rainfall was significantly below average.
  • In the South, rainfall in parts of Bay, Bakool, and Gedo was average to above-average in terms of total cumulative amount, but with poor temporal distribution. In Middle and Lower Shabelle, Middle and Lower Juba, and Hiiraan, rainfall began late, was below-average, and had poor temporal and spatial distribution. However, moderate Xagaa showers in late June in Lower Shabelle and Lower and Middle Juba improved pasture and water availability.
• Rangeland and water conditions are below average in most southern, central, and northeastern regions. In these areas, most private water catchments and communal dams remained empty or only partially filled during the Gu rainy season. Households in rainfall-deficit areas in the North and parts of Lower Shabelle are relying on trucked-in water while households in Juba and central regions are atypically purchasing water from boreholes.
  • In the Northwest, average to above-average Gu rains supported normal pasture and water regeneration in Hawd Pastoral and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Sool, and Togdheer. However, pasture and water resources in pastoral areas of Sanaag are generally poor. Although localized areas of Sanaag received moderate rains and flash floods from the Golis Mountains, atypically high numbers of livestock were migrated to these areas to access pasture and water, hampering the restoration of these resources.
  • In the Northeast, water and rangeland availability are atypically poor in most pastoral areas. Some localized, moderate rainfall was received in Bari in May, but had little impact on pasture or water regeneration. Households in Bari are atypically dependent on trucked-in water, and water prices are above-average: In Rako village of Qardho District, the May 2016 price of a 20-liter jerry can was 6,000 SOS, 50 percent higher than May 2015. However, in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone and parts of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone of Nugaal and Mudug, average rainfall restored pasture and water resources to normal.   
  • In southern and central regions, pasture and water availability are average to above-average in Bakool, Bay, Galgaduud, Gedo, Hiiraan, and most of Lower Juba. However, pasture and water resources remain poor in Coastal Deeh livelihood zone of Lower and Middle Juba and Lower Shabelle, and in localized pastoral areas of Bakool and Gedo, where rainfall was well below average.
• ​Livestock body conditions, production, and values are average in most parts of the country. In Awdal, Bay, and Woqooyi Galbeed, livestock body conditions improved to above-average due to good rains in April and May that increased pasture and water resources. However, poor to average body conditions are found in Southern Agropastoral livelihood zone of Hiiraan, Central Agropastoral livelihood zone of Galgadud, Mudug, and Middle Shabelle, Northern Inland Pastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones, and Addun Pastoral livelihood zone of Galgadud, Mudug, and Nugal.
  • Average livestock birth and conception rates took place between May and June in most pastoral and agropastoral areas. As a result, in most regions, livestock herd sizes are near or above baselines and milk production has seasonally increased to normal levels. However, low to medium birth rates were observed for camels and sheep/goats in Northern Inland Pastoral, Guban Pastoral, and Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zones due to low conception rates in these areas in 2015. Herd sizes in these regions have further declined in 2016 and remain below average. Milk production is similarly significantly below average.
  • Pastoralists are largely pursuing normal seasonal migration patterns, moving short distances within their livelihood zones. However, livestock from Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Cowpea Belt livelihood zones have been migrated to Addun Pastoral livelihood zone. Similarly, livestock from the rain-deficit areas of Northern Inland Pastoral are either concentrated in localized areas that received moderate rains or were migrated to either the coastal areas of Bari or West Golis livelihood zone in the Northwest.
• The area under cultivation for Gu crops is below average due to the negative impact of poor Gu rains, including the late start, erratic temporal and spatial distribution, and early cessation of rainfall. Additionally, heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands led to river floods that inundated crops.
  • As a result of river flooding in May, significant areas of riverine irrigated and rainfed lowland farms in Hiiraan, Middle Juba, and Jowhar District of Lower Shabelle were inundated. Nearly 9,000 hectares of farmland in Hiiraan, 12,000 hectares in Middle Juba, and some riverine farms in Jowhar/Mahaday were flooded, destroying planted maize and cash crops in vegetative stage, damaging irrigation and road infrastructure, and temporarily displacing households in Beletweyne Town. Gu recessional cropping has started in June with the recession of flood waters.
  • In flood-affected areas, agricultural labor demand is low and daily agricultural labor wage rates have declined. In Haigan of Hiiraan and Rahole of Middle Juba, agricultural labor wages decreased 30 and 45 percent, respectively, from May 2015 and were 19 and 14 percent lower than the five-year average.
  • In Bay and Bakol, high-production areas for sorghum, the area under cultivation and agricultural labor were at normal levels in April. However, the early end of Gu rains in May negatively impacted crop development. Standing maize and sorghum crops were at the vegetative and flowering stages, but persistent dry conditions in May and June hampered crop progress.
  • In Lower Shabelle, both agropastoral and riverine areas have reported poor maize crop performance due to moisture stress, following well below-average rainfall. In addition to poor rainfall, farmers lack sufficient river water to support crop development as farmers upstream of the Shabelle River dammed river flow to increase water levels for local field irrigation, lowering river flow to Lower Shabelle. Additionally, escalated clan conflict in parts of Afgoye, Merka, and Qoryooley has limited farmers’ access to farms and normal agricultural activities.
  • The most significant impacts from moisture stress are in agropastoral areas of Hiiraan and in the Cowpea Belt. In Hiiraan, the erratic distribution and early end of rainfall (Figure 2) has led to significant moisture stress, and the majority of crops have wilted beyond recovery. Only in the agropastoral areas of Hiiraan lowlands, which constitute 10-15 percent of the region’s farmland, are crops developing normally after benefiting from flash floods. In the Cowpea Belt, despite normal seed germination in April, the early end of rains in May and June caused severe moisture stress, destroying most cowpea and sorghum crops.
  • In remaining riverine areas, land under cultivation for cash crops is average and crop performance is normal. The majority of cash crops are under irrigation.
  • In the Northwest, an estimated 80,800 hectares were planted in Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, the second highest area cultivated since 2010. The majority was planted with long-cycle white sorghum, while 24 percent is under maize cultivation and nine percent under cash crop cultivation. Average rainfall is supporting normal crop development (Figure 4).
• Commodity prices are seasonally increasing as market supplies typically decline during the April to July lean season.
  • In Bay Region, from April to May, the price of red sorghum in Baidoa slightly increased and the price of maize in Qoryooley remained stable. Despite seasonal increases, staple food prices are below both last year and the five-year average. The price of red sorghum in Baidoa is 18 percent lower than last year and 33 percent lower than the five-year average, while the price of white maize in Qoryooley is 18 percent lower than last year and 24 percent below the five-year average. Below-average prices are the result of above-average local supply. Local supply has remained above average due to high transportation costs and increased taxation of cereal outflow by the Government and insurgents, decreasing cereal shipments out of the region.
  • In the Northwest, in the cereal-producing areas of Awdal, Waqooyi Galbeed, and Toghdeer, sorghum prices have remained stable throughout 2016, but are 5-15 percent higher than last year, and 7-23 percent higher than the five-year average. This is due to poor local Karan production and low imports from the Somali region of Ethiopia.
  • The prices of imported commodities were stable or decreased slightly across most reference markets as supply seasonally increases from April to September with pre-stocking before monsoon season. Imported commodity prices are 10-20 percent lower than the five-year average.
  • Livestock prices are above last year in central regions, but below average in northern regions. In central Somalia, livestock prices are 17 percent higher than last year, but nine percent lower than the five-year average. In the Northeast, goat prices are eight percent below last year and six percent below the five-year average. In the Northwest, goat prices are 18 percent lower than last year and five percent lower than the five-year averages.
• Household purchasing capacity, as measured by terms of trade (ToT), is above average in most regions of the country. In Lower Shabelle, local-quality goat-to-maize ToT were 34 percent higher than last year and 31 percent above the five-year average. In the sorghum belt of Bay, local-quality goat-to-sorghum ToT were 30 percent higher than last year, but 6 percent below the five-year average. However, this 6 percent below average is not indicative of below-average food access; rather, historically high ToT in 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. The ToT in Bay remains one of highest in the country. While one local-quality goat in Lower Shabelle is worth about 200 kilograms (kg) of sorghum, the same quality goat is worth 279 kg in Bay. In the Northwest, one local-quality goat in Woqooyi Galbeed is worth 81 kg of sorghum, the second lowest ToT in Somalia, due to high prices following below average Gu/Karan 2015 production.
• Conflict in southern and central regions has increased compared to last year. In Hiiraan and Bakool, unpredictable trade restrictions are decreasing trade between the regions and the port of Mogadishu. In Lower and Middle Juba, Bay, and Bakool, organized killings and road side bombs have been reported nearly every month. In Lower Shabelle and Hiiraan, clan conflict and armed confrontations between militants and Government forces backed by the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) are ongoing. All these factors are negatively affecting humanitarian access and household labor migration patterns.
• Nutrition: The prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) during the April to June rainy season has either seasonally increased or remained similar to levels seen in December 2015. Seasonal increases are largely the result of increased waterborne diseases. In drought-affected pastoral areas in the North, an atypical deterioration in malnutrition was observed between April and June, as a result of increased waterborne disease, suspected cases of measles, and limited access to milk and cereals given consecutive poor seasons.

Current Food Security

In pastoral areas, most poor households are in None (IPC Phase 1) as they have sufficient milk for consumption and sales, and adequate saleable animals to support market purchases. Poor households are assumed to have relatively good market access as prices are lower than both last year and the five-year average, supporting favorable ToT. However, in northern Somalia, many poor households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, poor households are slowly recovering from poor 2015 rainfall, during which livestock deaths were atypically high. Many poor households’ herd sizes are below average and they have limited access to milk production and few saleable animals, as well as high levels of debt. Humanitarian assistance reported during the January to March Jilaal season improved food access for some households, although many are still in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Conditions in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone began improving in 2016 as favorable Gu rainfall supported increased livestock productivity and reproduction. In Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone, poor 2015 Deyr and 2016 Gu rainfall caused significant livestock outmigration and atypical livestock deaths. Households have few salable livestock to support cereal purchases and little or no access to milk. Poor households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In Bari and Sanaag of East Golis livelihood zone, Addun Pastoral livelihood zone, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone, many poor households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Although most have saleable animals, they are selling higher-than-normal amounts of livestock to repay debts they accrued for livestock migration costs during the poor Gu season. As a result, many have below-average income to purchase food for consumption.

In agropastoral areas of the South, food security has deteriorated to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), most notably in Bakool, Bay, Bedo, Lower and Middle Juba, and Lower and Middle Shabelle, and to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Hiiraan. In Stressed (IPC Phase 2) regions, below-average and erratically distributed Gu rains led to significant crop destruction. Agricultural labor opportunities, as a result, were limited and many poor households were unable to earn sufficient income to purchase basic food needs. Additionally, given crop damage, most poor households do not have access to green consumption, which would typically be available at this time. In riverine areas of Hiiraan, poor Gu rainfall followed by river floods in May caused significant crop damage and limited agricultural labor opportunities. Additionally, high levels of water-borne disease were reported following flooding and it is likely the prevalence of malnutrition has increased. Poor households have limited food stocks remaining from the past Deyr harvest and are experiencing an atypically long lean season until the Gu off-season harvest in September. Agricultural activities have largely been suspended due to river flooding and many poor households face difficulty earning income to purchase basic food needs and have deteriorated to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in June.

IDP Food Security

High levels of acute malnutrition continue to persist in all IDP settlements. A SMART survey conducted by FSNAU and partners between May and June reported ‘Critical’ levels of acute malnutrition in Bosasso, Dolo, Garowe, Galkacyo, Dobely and Baidoa IDP settlements. The same level of malnutrition was reported in Bosasso, Dolo, Garowe, and Galkacyo in December 2015, whereas Dobely and Baidoa deteriorated from ‘Stress’ levels to ‘Crisis’ levels between December 2015 and May/June. ‘Serious’ levels of acute malnutrition were observed in Kismayo, Mogadishu, Dhusamareeb, Qardho, and Hargeysa, the same level of prevalence in each of these locations in December 2015.  

Several factors contribute to the sustained high levels of acute malnutrition in Somalia’s IDP settlements. Many IDPs lack productive assets and few have livestock or land to farm. Most IDPs are dependent on markets to access food, but have limited income-earning opportunities and compete with host communities for casual labor opportunities. IDPs reported spending anywhere from 65 to 84 percent of their total expenditure on basic food needs. Food consumption is often inadequate. Additionally, poor access to health and sanitation practices further exasperates malnutrition.

The Government of Kenya had announced its intention to close Dadaab refugee camp as early as November 2016. The camp currently hosts about 350,000 refugees, mostly Somalis, and in the event of a closure, most of this population will lose their current livelihoods. The return and reintegration process will require support measures which ensure the safe, dignified, voluntary return, and sustainable reintegration of Somali refugees from Kenya. In the event of the closure of Dadaab camp, it is expected that Somalia will receive a significant number of returnees who have lost their typical income-earning opportunities, including businesses started in Dadaab, and food assistance from UNHCR. 

Assumptions

The June 2016 to January 2017 most likely scenario is based on the following national-level assumptions:

Seasonal forecast:

• The June to September Karan rains in northwestern Somalia is forecast to be average.  
• The June to August coastal Xagaa rains in Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Bay, costal Galgaduud, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba is forecast to be below average.
• The June to September Xagaa dry season is expected to be drier-than-usual in northern and central regions, Hiiraan, and parts of Lower and Middle Juba, due to below average March to June Gu rainfall.
• According to CPC/IRI consensus forecasts, there is a 75 percent chance of a La Niña event occurring throughout the Deyr season. La Niña is associated with below-average rainfall over the Horn of Africa and, subsequently, the October to December Deyr rains is forecast to be below average.  

Crop production and agricultural labor:

• Agricultural labor opportunities during the July/August Gu harvest are expected to be below average in southern and central regions as a result of erratic and below-average rainfall that caused crop damage. However, agricultural labor demand is expected to increase slightly along the Juba River and Shabelle River in Hiiraan and Jowhar as some farmers flood their fields to irrigate crops in the absence of adequate Gu rains.
• July Gu harvest is expected to be below average in Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and the Cowpea Belt. Given that Bay and Lower Shabelle are high-production regions, poor harvests in these areas will result in overall below-average production, estimated at 60 percent of the five-year average (Figure 3).
• The August to September Gu off-season harvest is expected to be below average in Lower Juba, Hiiraan, Jowhar District of Middle Shabelle, and Kurtunwarey and Sabalale Districts of Lower Shabelle due to both the current slow recession of flood waters that is reducing the area available for cultivation and the high risks of pest infestation and moisture stress during the expected atypically-dry Xagaa season.
• The October to November Gu/Karan production of maize and sorghum in the Northwest is expected to be average to above-average as favorable rainfall in this area is supporting normal crop development.
• The January Deyr harvest is likely to be below average given the forecast for poor Deyr rainfall across most of the country. Agricultural labor demand during the Deyr season is also expected to be below normal as farmers are likely to reduce the area of land cultivated and Deyr rainfall may be insufficient for normal crop development.

Livestock:

• Pasture and water resources are expected to further deteriorate during the July to September dry Xagaa season, and remain significantly below average in rain-deficit areas of the Northeast and South/Central. Rangeland and water resources are expected to seasonally improve during the October to December Deyr rains, although improvements will likely be minimal given the forecast poor Deyr rains. The exception to this is in Awdal and Woqoyi Galbeed, where average Karan rainfall is forecast. In these areas, pasture and water resources are expected to remain average and follow seasonal trends throughout the outlook period.
• In the Awdal and Woqoyi Galbeed of the Northeast, livestock body conditions and productivity are expected to remain average as Gu rains sustained favorable pasture and water resources and the forecast average Karan rains will further sustain rangeland for livestock. In the northwestern, central, and southern areas that received poor Gu rainfall, livestock body conditions will further deteriorate during the July to September Xagaa dry season. It is expected conditions will only minimally improve, or will deteriorate further, during the October to December Deyr rains, as livestock will be migrated increased distances in search of water and pasture. 
• Medium livestock conception and calving rates are expected throughout much of the country in June/July due to medium camel and cattle conception rates last year. However, low camel calving rates are expected in Northern Inland Pastoral, Guban Pastoral, and Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zones where low conception rates took place in December 2015.

Markets and Trade:

• Maize and sorghum prices are expected to follow seasonal trends, decreasing from July to August as the Gu harvest replenishes household and market stocks, increasing from September and December as stocks are drawn down, and increasing again in January with the Deyr harvest. Despite seasonal trends, prices are expected to remain above the five-year average throughout the scenario period. From September to December prices will be above average as households, with below average stocks, have greater market demand. Additionally, traders are likely to keep stocks off the market immediately after the Gu harvest, in anticipation of higher prices in later months, lowering market supply and contributing to price increases.
  • In the Northwest, local cereal prices are expected to remain atypically high from now until the November Karan harvest, as supplies are very low given poor production last year and conflict and trade restrictions limiting trade with Ethiopia.
• Compared to last year, higher stock amounts from the Gu harvest are expected to go to Wajid, Tayeglow, and Rabdhure of Bakool, Buloburte of Hiiraan, Qansaxdhere and Diinsoor of Bay, and Bardhere of Gedo as traders have increased access through new trade routes. However, prices are expected to remain higher than the five-year average due to illegal commodity taxation by non-government actors.
• Sorghum and maize imports from Ethiopia are expected to atypically increase through January, given the expectation of below-average Gu 2016 and Deyr 2016/17 harvests in Somalia, which will increase the demand for cereal imports from Ethiopia. Significant increases in imports are less likely before October, as below-average Gu production in Ethiopia is likely to limit supplies from Godey and Qalago of the Somali Region to Somalia. However, the October to January Meher harvest in Ethiopia is expected to be average and able to support increased demand from Somalia.
• Livestock prices are expected to seasonally peak between July and September when livestock are re-exported to Arab countries during the Hajj season. Similarly, cross-border livestock trade between Ethiopia and Somalia is expected to be at normal levels, increasing between July and September, and decreasing from October to December.

Humanitarian assistance:

• Humanitarian assistance is expected to continue throughout the outlook period at typical levels and access will remain similar in most northern regions. In the South, humanitarian access is expected to remain limited to main towns as ongoing conflict and many logistical challenges will limit access in rural areas.

Conflict:

• The conflict between al-Shabaab and the Government supported by AMISOM in South/Central is likely to escalate during elections in August, further constraining trade, population movement, and humanitarian access, and increasing population displacement and the loss of life and assets.

Nutrition: 

• The prevalence of GAM is expected to increase atypically through September in most of southern and central Somalia as a result of increased waterborne diseases, suspected cases of measles, and confirmed malaria cases, and reduced food availability given poor production. Similarly, in rainfall-deficit areas of the Northwest, atypical deterioration in malnutrition is likely through September as a result of increased waterborne diseases, limited milk availability given poor livestock body conditions, and limited income from livestock to purchase food. Malnutrition levels are expected to remain higher-than-normal from October to December, during which time the forecast poor Deyr rains are likely to lower harvest prospects and agricultural labor opportunities, lowering food availability and access.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

In many pastoral areas, from June to September, food security is expected to seasonally improve and poor households will maintain None (IPC Phase 1). The exceptions to this are Addun Pastoral, Coastal Deeh Pastoral, Northern Inland Pastoral, and Guban Pastoral livelihood zones where food security is deteriorating. In Addun Pastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones, poor households have saleable livestock, but have accrued debts during the Gu season in order to migrate livestock to areas with better pasture and water resources. It is expected many will continue selling atypically high numbers of livestock to repay debts. With below-average income, poor households will face difficulty meeting both their food and non-food needs and be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone of Bari and Sanaag, significantly below-average Deyr 2015 and Gu 2016 rains caused livestock outmigration and atypically high livestock deaths. As a result, many households lack access to milk and have few to no saleable livestock to purchase food. In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, poor households are slowly recovering from poor 2015 rainfall, during which livestock deaths were high. Many poor households’ have high debts from purchasing food on credit, and below-average herd sizes, limiting milk access and saleable livestock, and they have high debts from purchasing food on credit. Although some will sell livestock to repay debts, cereal prices remain above both last year and the five-year average in the Northwest and are expected to remain high during the outlook. The TOT in this region are the second lowest in Somalia, and households can purchase relatively little food from the sale of livestock. Many poor households in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), although food security is expected to improve slightly due to favorable Gu rainfall that is supporting increased livestock productivity and reproduction. In remaining areas, including Southern Inland Pastoral, Juba Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral, West Golis Pastoral, and Laascaanood and Ceynabo Districts of Sool in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone, poor households are all expected to maintain None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. Most poor households have average to above-average livestock herd sizes and will be able to sell livestock during this time period to purchase cereal, as well as access milk for consumption and sales.

In most agropastoral areas, from June to September, food security is expected to deteriorate. With the likely below-average Gu production, household and market stocks will be below average. Household food stocks will likely only last 1-2 months. Given that there will be a lower-than-normal demand for agricultural labor during the Gu harvest, income-earning opportunities will also be below average. With atypically high prices and below-average income, the purchasing capacity of poor households is expected to deteriorate from June to September. Many will face difficulty meeting their basic food and non-food needs and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Food security outcomes in Riverine Pump Irrigation in Hiiraan region will likely deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to an expected near complete Gu crop failure following both poor rainfall and extensive river flooding. Most households in this area will not have access to own production until September with off-season Gu production. Additionally, escalated clan conflict in Hiiraan is expected to cause market disruptions, increasing food prices and constraining household food access. Conversely, in Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, above-average rainfall from March to June supported increased planting of short-cycle maize and long-cycle sorghum for the Gu harvest in July and Karan harvest in November. The Somaliland Ministry of Agriculture estimates that around 73,000 MT of sorghum and maize will be harvested, the second highest yield since 2010. Households in these areas will have access to maize stocks and milk for consumption. Food security is expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but many poor households will still face some difficulty meeting food and non-food needs as they are likely to sell a significant proportion of maize harvests to repay debts accrued during the poor 2015 seasons.

In both pastoral and agropastoral areas, from October to January, food security is expected to deteriorate. In Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and the Cowpea Belt, poor households will have depleted household stocks earlier than usual given poor Gu production. Many will be heavily reliant on the market, but prices will be atypically high following poor production. The forecast poor Deyr rainfall is expected to reduce the demand for agricultural labor during this time, lowering household income. The labor-to-cereal ToT are expected to deteriorate and many households will have difficulty meeting their basic food needs and experience food consumption gaps. Households will likely cope by reducing the number of meals consumed and purchasing food on credit. The January Deyr harvest will slightly improve food security, although improvements are likely to be minimal given the expected below-average Deyr harvest. Poor households in Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones, Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone of Lower Shabelle, and Southern Agropastoral and Riverine Pump Irrigation livelihood zones of Hiiraan are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In Sorghum High Potential livelihood zone in Bay, some poor households will likely deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) although the area is expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In pastoral areas of southern and central Somalia, pasture and water availability will only slightly restore with the below-average Deyr rainfall. No significant improvements are expected in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, as livestock body conditions and reproduction will remain below-average with poor Deyr rains. Livestock body conditions are expected to further deteriorate as pastoralists migrate livestock further distances in search of sufficient rangeland. Many poor households will deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during this time as income is likely redirected to water purchases and maintaining livestock. Livestock body conditions will atypically decline and households will have minimal access to milk. It is expected poor households will cope by selling additional livestock and seeking credit to purchase food. Many will deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during this time.  

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