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One million people remain in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phase 3 and 4)

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Somalia
  • February - September 2016
One million people remain in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phase 3 and 4)

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  • Key Messages
  • National Overview
  • Key Messages
    • Over one million people are currently in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4). The most food insecure people are in Guban Pastoral, Northern Inland Pastoral, and Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zones, as well as in camps for internally displaced persons. Food security in these areas is primarily the result of below-average rainfall which led to limited pasture and water availability and elevated livestock death rates. 

    • The October to December Deyr rainfall was average to above-average in southern and central regions, driven in part by the ongoing El Niño. These rains improved pasture, browse, and water availability and supported favorable crop production. With the exception of Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone, food security is expected to improve in most southern and central regions. 

    • The Deyr harvest of sorghum and maize is estimated at 130,100 metric tons, 18 percent above the five-year average. Production was significantly above average in Bay and Lower and Middle Shabelle Regions. However, the Southern Rainfed agropastoral areas of Lower and Middle Juba and Lower Shabelle Regions had significantly below average crop production. 


    National Overview

    Current Situation

    Based on the Deyr 2015/16 seasonal food security assessment conducted in December 2015 by the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS NET), and partners, approximately one million people are projected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through June 2016.

    • The Deyr season began in early October, although the rains did not become fully established until the third week of the month. Rainfall was average to above-average with adequate temporal and spatially distribution for most pastoral and agropastoral areas in south and central Somalia, as well as in areas of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in the North. However, the rains were relatively erratic and well below average in most pastoral areas in the North and in the coastal areas of Juba and Shabelle Valley (Figure 1). The Deyr rains ended earlier than normal, between November and mid-December.
      • In the Northwest, rainfall was moderate with average distribution in Hawd and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Hargeysa and Berbera Districts. Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Lughaya and Zeylac Districts received atypical, moderate rains in October and November, followed by moderate to light Xeys rains in December. Areas of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions received almost no rainfall in November and December.  
    • In the Northeast, the Deyr rains were below average with erratic temporal and spatial distribution in most parts of Nugaal and Bari Regions. Only Hawd and Addun pastoral areas in Nugaal and North Mudug Regions received average rainfall with normal temporal and spatial distribution. The poor rains significantly impacted Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone, failing to restore pasture and water resources and causing high livestock out-migration. 
      • In central regions, moderate to good rains with typical distribution were received in Cowpea-Belt Agropastoral, Hawd and Addun Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones. Rainfall replenished water sources, improved pasture conditions, and supported cowpea crop development. The exception to this was in Hobyo District where rains were relatively poor.  
      • In the South, most regions received average to above-average rainfall with typical spatial and temporal distribution. These rains improved pasture, browse, and water availability and supported crop production. However, rainfall was erratic and relatively poor in parts of Southern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Gedo Region and Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone in Jubas and Lower Shabelle.
    • Rangeland and water conditions in most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones are average, except in pastoral areas of Bari and Sanaag, and in Southern Inland Pastoral and North Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones. In these areas, most private water catchments and communal dams remained empty during the rains. Rainfall-deficit areas in the North have relied on high priced trucked-in water since September 2015.
    • In the Northwest, average Deyr rains received in Hawd Pastoral and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones of Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer Regions maintained average access to pasture and water. However, in pastoral livelihood zones of Sanaag where Deyr rainfall was signicantly below average, pasture and water conditions are poor. In these areas, rangeland conditions are far worse than in recent years, and atypical livestock outmigration to Guban Pastoral livelihood zone and Hawd of Sool region has been reported.
    • In the Northeast, water and rangeland availability are atypically poor. Some localized rains were received in pockets of Qardho and Iskushuban during November, but they had little impact on replenishing pasture or water. Water prices have increased in rural reference markets: in Rako village of Qardho District, the January 2016 price of a 20-liter jerry can was 5,000 SOS, 25 percent higher than January 2015.
    • In the South and central regions, pasture and water conditions are average to above-average in Bakool, Bay, Galgaduud, Gedo, Hiiraan, and Lower Juba Regions. Deyr rainfall was sufficient to refill water sources, rejuvenate rangeland conditions, and allow crop development. However, pasture and water availability remain poor in coastal areas of Lower and Middle Juba and Lower Shabelle Regions, and localized pastoral areas in Bakool and Gedo, where rains were well below average.
    • Livestock body conditions, production, and values: As a result of near-normal to above-normal October to December Deyr rains, both pasture and water availability have increased, contributing to improved livestock body conditions. However, poor livestock body conditions are found in rain-deficit areas, including Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone, Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of Zeylac District, Northwestern Agropastoral and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones of Borama and Gabiley Districts, Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Togdheer and Woqooi Galbeed, and some parts of Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Mudug, Lower and Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle regions.
      • In pastoral and agropastoral areas of southern and central regions, average birth and conception rates were observed for all livestock from October to December. However, low to medium rates of cattle and camels calving and medium birth rates of sheep/goats were observed in the North due to medium to low rates of conception during the 2015 Gu and the Deyr rains. Milk availability has increased to average in most agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Overall, herd sizes in December 2015 were mostly near baseline to above baseline levels, with the exception of in Northern Inland Pastoral, Guban Pastoral, and Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zones where herd sizes are below average.
      • Livestock Migration is largely following seasonal patterns. However, livestock from Bari and Sanaag Regions have been migrated to Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones, while livestock from Hawd and Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zones of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions were migrated to the Awdal Region of Guban Pastoral livelihood zone.  
    • Crop performance and harvest:
      • Deyr 2016 harvests of sorghum and maize, including March off-season production in riverine areas, is estimated at nearly 130,100 metric tons (MT), 28 percent above the (1995-2014) post-war average (PWA) and 18 percent above the five-year average (2010-2014). Production was significantly above average in Bay and Lower and Middle Shabelle Regions. However, the Southern Rainfed agropastoral areas of Lower and Middle Juba and Lower Shabelle Regions had significantly below average crop production.
      • In addition to cereals, nearly 45,500 MT of other crops were harvested, including sesame, cowpeas, rice, onions, tomatoes, ground nuts, and watermelon. These higher value crops were mainly harvested in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Bay, Juba, Gedo, Hiran, and Galgadud Regions. In the Cowpea Belt livelihood zone in central regions, an above-average area was put under cultivation following the above-average Deyr rains, resulting in an estimated 5,000 MT of cowpeas, the second highest harvest in that area since 2011.
    • Commodity prices: Staple food prices were stable or began decreasing in January as the Deyr harvest of sorghum, maize, and cowpeas, and imports of rice, wheat flour, and sugar, all improved food availability. However, prices remained high, or continued to increase, in crop deficit areas of northern and central regions as price transmission is often delayed. In conflict-affected localities in the south, prices also remain above average as disruptions to markets and trade activities continue to hamper the delivery of supplies to markets.
    • In Bay Region, the price of red sorghum in Baidoa remained stable in January 2016, but slightly higher than last year and the five-year average, given that Deyr harvests have not yet reached this market. In Qoryooley market, the price of white maize sharply increased by 27 percent from December 2015 due to trade blockades put in place by insurgents, increased insecurity, and clan conflict over the region. Despite this increase, prices are 29 and 24 percent lower than January 2015 and five-year averages, respectively.
    • In the Northwest, in the cereal producing markets of Borama, Hargeysa, and Togwajaale, white sorghum prices in January were 15 percent lower than last year due to both continued imports from the Somali region of Ethiopia and favorable Deyr harvests. Despite this, prices remain 10 percent higher than five-year averages.
    • The prices of international imports such as rice, sugar, and wheat flour remain stable have remained stable or declined since June 2015 and remain below their respective 2015 levels. This is likely driven in part by decreasing fuel prices, lowering the cost of transportation and irrigated farming.
    • In northern and central pastoral zones, livestock prices are typical and seasonally decreasing following the end of peak exports in October. In addition, the increased inflow of higher quality livestock from the Somali Region of Ethiopia is contributing to a lower demand for local livestock.
    • Terms of Trade (TOT): In most areas of the country, the goat-to-cereal and wage-to-cereal TOT have improved over the last year. In January, in central and northern pastoral areas, the price of a local quality goat was equivalent to 74.5 kg of rice, an increase of approximately 18 percent from last year and 30 percent from the five-year average. Also in January, the daily wage was equivalent to 5 to 10 kg of cereals, which is 25 to 54 percent above the five-year average. In most crop-producing areas in southern Somalia, the daily wage rate in January was equivalent to 11-16 kg of red sorghum or white maize, an increase of 22-60 percent from last year and 17-45 percent from the five-year average.
    • Nutrition: According to a Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions (SMART) nutrition survey conducted by FSNAU, FEWS NET, and partners from October to December 2015, despite the improvement of food access and availability in most rural areas, the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) has increased since July 2015, sustaining Critical levels (15.0 to 19.9 percent) among pastoralists in Beletweyn and Mataban Districts (Hiraan), in Awdal, Sanaag, and Woqooyi Galbeed of Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, and among pastoralist in Bay Region. However, the GAM prevalence slightly declined in East Golis of Bari and Sanaag regions, Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in central regions, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone, but still sustain Serious (10.0 to 14.9 percent) levels.

    Current Food Security

    Despite persistent conflict and insecurity in most southern and central regions, the above-average Deyr production has improved food security in most rural livelihood zones. Food security has also improved in most areas of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone, improving to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) as a result of increased milk production for consumption and sale. However, food security has deteriorated in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Hargeysa District after poor rainfall led to atypical livestock outmigration. Food security has also deteriorated in Southern Rainfed Agropastroal livelihood zone in Lower Shabelle and the Jubas as a result of poor Deyr rainfall that led to near crop failure. The majority of households are now in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and an estimated 25 percent of poor households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In northern Somalia, several areas remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), including Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari, Nugaal, Sanaag, and Sool Regions, and Guban and Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zones in Adwal and Woqooyi Galbeed as a result of consecutive poor rainfall seasons, lowering livestock productivity and herd sizes.

    Urban Food Security

    According to the FSNAU/FEWS NET 2015/2016 post-Deyr assessment, the food security of urban populations has improved since the 2015 post-Gu assessment. The urban population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) has reduced by nearly 50 percent, from 104,000 people to 54,000. Roughly 70 percent of these people live in southern regions, in Bakool, Bay, Hiiraan, and Lower Juba, which continue to experience prolonged insecurity and few economic opportunities.

    Multiple factors contributed to the observed improvement in urban food security. Firstly, the above-average Deyr harvest has led to a decline in the price of local cereals. The January 2016 price of maize in Mogadishu was SOS 6,900, 31 percent and 20 percent lower than the last year price and five-year average, respectively. A similar trend has been observed in many markets in southern and central regions. Secondly, there has been stability in commercial food imports, reducing the price of rice, wheat flour, and vegetable oil. Thirdly, decreasing fuel prices are reducing transportation costs. The price of diesel in January 2016 in Banaadir’s Bakara market, a key supply point for southern and central regions and cross-border trade, was SOS 16,500, a 37 percent reduction from the five-year average. Furthermore, market trade activities have been stable or increasing, improving access to wage labor. Lastly, increased access to water following average to above-average Deyr rainfall improved milk production and access to milk through seasonally declining milk prices. Increased investment and trade in Mogadishu and humanitarian assistance that improves access to food, health, and social services are all further contributing to improved urban food security.

    IDP Food Security

    According to the FSNAU/FEWS NET 2015/2016 post-Deyr assessment, 649,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4), 68 percent of the total national population currently classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Of the 13 IDP settlements surveyed, 12 were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and one (Dolow) in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). More than half of all IDPs in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are in Banaadir (Mogadishu).

    High levels of acute malnutrition continue to persist in all IDP settlements. A SMART survey conducted by FSNAU, FEWS NET, and partners between October and December 2015 reported GAM prevalence of 16.8 (95 percent confidence interval 14.3 – 19.7) in Bosasso, 19.5 (95 percent confidence interval 16.5 – 22.9) in Garowe, 16.5 (95 percent confidence interval 13.5-20.0) in Gaalkacyo, and 25 percent in Dolow (95 percent confidence interval 21.2-29.3), all at Critical levels. The GAM prevalence in Dhusamareeb, Banaadir, Kismayo, Baidoa, and Dhobley, were all at Serious levels.

    A number of factors contribute to continued food insecurity among IDPs. First, the majority of IDPs have few assets: 80 percent reported owning few to no livestock, productive, or domestic assets. Secondly, many IDPs are reliant on unstable or limited sources of income. Thirdly, most IDPs are reliant on market purchases to access food and are therefore more vulnerable to market shocks such as price inflation. The majority of IDPs in all assessed settlements reported high food spending ranging between 75 to 87 percent of total expenditure. Fourthly, many IDPs have weak social and family/clan connections that can be vital forms of assistance in time of need. Lastly, many have inadequate access to social services such as health, sanitation, and education.

    Assumptions

    The January to September 2016 most likely scenario is based on the following national-level assumptions:

    Climate:

    • The January to March 2016 Jilaal dry season is expected to be mild in terms of the length and temperatures are not expected to be significantly above average (.5-1 degree Celsius above average), except in Northern Inland Pastoral and Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zones where the dry period is likely to be harsher than normal.
    • As a result of a normal Jilaal dry season, water and pasture availability are expected to seasonally decrease in most areas. However, in Northern Inland Pastoral, Northwestern Agropastoral, Hawd, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones, pasture and water resources are expected to decrease faster than normal.
    • The April to June Gu rains are likely to be near average in amount with an erratic start.
    • The peak of East Africa coastal strip rains, from May to June, is expected to be below average in terms of cumulative rainfall.
    • The July to August Hagaa rains in South Coastal Deeh and Southern Ranifed Agropastoral livelihood zones and the July to September Karan rains in the northwestern Somalia are expected to be near-average in amount.
    • It is expected rainfall will be influenced by the ongoing El Niño, which is forecast to weaken and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in late spring (Gu) to early summer (Hagaa).
    • Agricultural labor demand and crop production:

    • The 2015 Deyr cash crop harvest (sesame and cowpea) in January/February is likely to be lower than last year due to reduced sesame demand in international markets. The decreased production will likely result in decreased cash income for middle and better-off households from lower sales and reduced income for poor households from fewer labor opportunities.
    • Agricultural labor demand through April is expected to be average in most southern agricultural areas. Harvesting cash crops in southern regions will be as important as harvesting cereals as a source of income for this season.
    • From May to August, with likely near normal performance of the Gu rains, area planted is expected to be near average. Agricultural labor demand is likely to be typical from March through August for land preparation, planting, weeding and harvesting.

    Livestock:

    • Livestock body conditions are likely to remain seasonlly average during the January to March Jilaal dry season due to the anticipated continued availability of dry pasture and browse. However, in parts of Awdal, Sanaag, Bari, Nugaal and Hobyo Districts, where pasture, browse, and water resources are below average, livestock body condition will likely remain poor through April but seasonably will improve from May through September.
    • Atypcial migration patterns are expected through March from areas that received below-average Deyr rainfall to areas that received average to above average Deyr rainfall.
    • In South-Central regions, a medium rate of camel calving and kidding is expected from late March through July while cattle calving will likely be low to medium. In the North, cattle and camel calving is expected to be low to medium while sheep and goat births will likely be medium.
    • Milk availability is expected to seasonally decline through March as pasture quality deteriorates and the number of milking females dry up during the Jilaal dry season. However, milk availability will improve following births between late March and July.
    • Milk prices will follow seasonal trends, increasing through March and decreasing during the April to July wet season following livestock births.
      • In riverine livelihood zones, milk prices will seasonally increase in May during the middle of the Gu rains unlike the decrease in prices expected in other areas of Somalia. This is due to the fact that most milking livestock will have migrated away from riverine homesteads to wet season grazing areas.
    • Livestock prices are likely to follow normal, seasonal trends, decreasing through the end of February due to low export and low domestic demand. Livestock prices are expected to then gradually increase from March through August as traders restock for sales during Ramadan and Hajj.  

    Markets and trade:

    • Sorghum and maize prices are expected to follow seasonal trends, decreasing thorugh February as Deyr harves reach markets, increasing from March through June as market stocks are drawn down and demand increases, and decreasing thorugh August until increasing again in September.
    • Poor Gu/Karan production in northwest agropastoral zones and reduced cross-border trade with Ethiopia due to below average production contributed to soaring cereal prices. Sorghum and maize prices are likely to remain high in Northwest regions.
    • In anticipation of average 2016 Gu cereal production, market supply of sorghum and maize in both producer and consumer markets is likely to be normal.
    • In areas where insecurity limits trade and humanitarian access, prices are expected to remain high.
    • Cross-border trade in re-exports of rice and sugar from Somalia to Kenya is expected to be below average due to heightened security operations along the border. Sorghum and maize imports from Ethiopia are expected to be the below average following below-average production in parts of Ethiopia. Livestock trade between Ethiopia and Somalia is expected to remain high and stable. 
    • Imported commodity prices are expected to remain largely stable through April. From May to August prices are expected to rise slightly as monsoon winds off the coast cause a seasonal decerase in shipping.
    • Between May and June, market supplies of imported commodities in inland areas are expected to decrease as rainfall renders roads impassable, disrupting trade routes. This will cause an increase in prices of imported goods in rural inland markets. From July through September, market supply will increase and prices will typically decline.

    Conflict:

    • Improved security is not expected in South-Central Somalia between now and September. Conflict between Al-Shabaab and government forces supported by troops from the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) are likely to increase between January and March 2016, as the dry season makes roads passible and as the government and allied regional state authorities continue to expand to areas controlled by insurgents, mostly in Middle Juba, parts of Shabelle, Gedo, Bay/Bakool, and Hiran. This will likely reduce trader and humanitarian movements, cause displacements and increases in taxation through road blocks, and result in the loss of assets and human lives. The same issues will likely continue during the July to September Hagaa dry season.
    • Resource conflicts in Merka and Janaale areas of Lower Shabelle, Defow and Buq Koosaar of Hiran, and clan conflicts in Xeraale and Balanbale of Galgadud are expected to continue throughout the outlook period, limiting trade, labor opportunities, and normal movement of people and goods in these areas.

    Nutrition:

    • The prevalence of acute malnutrition is projected to deteriorate in some northern and central regions from Alert to Serious and from Serious to Critical from February to June due to significantly below average livestock production, which is limiting access to milk and reducing household income. Many southern areas are expected to sustained Critical levels of acute malnutrition over the same time period.

    Humanitarian assistance:

    • Humanitarian access will likely be normal between January and April in most northern and central regions. However, in the South, humanitarian access is expected to be limited to main towns as ongoing conflict and many logistical challenges are expected to limit access in rural areas. Between April and June, physical access to nearly all isolated rural areas, northern and southern, will decline when most dirt roads become impassible during the rains.  Roads will open and access will improve after June. 

    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    The average to above-average Deyr harvest in most southern and central high agricultural productivity areas in Bay and Lower Shabelle Regions will replenish household and market stocks, supporting improved consumption and allowing households to provide average levels of crop gifts (zakat) to poorer households. Staple food prices are expected to follow seasonal trends, but remain below the five-year average in most areas, supporting household purchasing capacity and further improving food security. The exception to this is in Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone where maize production will likely be significantly below average due to poor Deyr rainfall. However, in neighboring riverine areas cereal production was average to above-average and households from Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone were able to access agricultural labor opportunities in riverine areas. Many households Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone will be able to maintain minimally adequate food access but will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September.

    Agropastoral and riverine households are expected to have average cereal and cash crops production during July/August Gu harvest and off-season harvest. This will likely allow poor households to restock and receive crop gifts (zakat), and access average cash income from cash crop sales and agriculture labor. Households will likely be able to meet their basic food needs without having to engage in irreversible coping strategies but will remain Stressd (IPC Phase 2) due to below-average stocks and persistant insecurity that forces households to reallocate money to illegal taxation rather than food.

    Food security in most pastoral areas is expected to seasonally deteriorate through March as the Jilaal dry season carries on, due to reduced income from lower livestock productivity. However, food security should improve and remain stable through September as the forecast near normal Gu rains improve pasture and water availability and support near average livestock body conditions, medium kidding and lambing in March/April, and low to medium calving in April/June. Milk should remain available for both sale and consumption during April to August. Furthermore, with anticipated high but stable imported commodity prices, and rising livestock prices, the purchasing power of poor pastoral households is expected to remain stable, supporting food access. Despite these improvements, the majority of pastoral households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to below average herd sizes which will result in continued below-average household income. With below average income, most pastoral households will face difficulty purchasing necessary food and non-food needs.

    Areas currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) include Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone and Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Sanaag, Bari, Sool, and Nugaal Regions. Poor households in Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone are unlikely to see significant improvement in their food security until June at the end of their lean season when own production becomes available, at which point households are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In Guban pastoral livelihood zone, despite the improvement of pasture and water after atypical, moderate rainfall from October to December, which improved livestock body conditions and production, poor households are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September as a result of limited milk consumption and sales, low income from livestock sales due to past drought effects that lowered herd sizes, and high local cereal and imported food prices. In Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone, food security is expected to continue to deteriorate as atypical outmigration and livestock deaths have limited own milk consumption and cereal and imported food prices remain high. Poor households will likely increase seeking food gifts from friends and family and rely heavily on credit to purchase food. As a result, food security outcomes will likely deteriorate but remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and April 2016. The forcast average Gu rainfall will likely improve livestock production and reproduction, increase milk consumption and income through sales. All of this will support increased food purchases and consumption. It is expected most pastoral households in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in June and remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) thorugh at least September. 

    Figures October to December 2015 rainfall, anomaly in millimeters (mm) as a standard deviation (SD/z-score) from 2000-2014 mean using Climate Hazards Group Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data

    Figure 1

    October to December 2015 rainfall, anomaly in millimeters (mm) as a standard deviation (SD/z-score) from 2000-2014 mean using Climate Hazards Group Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Source: FEWS NET

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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