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Southern Agropastoral livelihood zone in Middle Juba Region has moved into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as supplies from Bay Region have pushed sorghum prices to the lowest they have been since February 2014. This has increased the goat-to-sorghum terms of trade, and thus, the purchasing power of poor households. From October to December, more poor households are likely to move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as land preparation, planting, and weeding increase incomes from agricultural labor.
In the Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, there was very little Gu maize harvested. Incomes from livestock and milk sales are low, but white sorghum prices have increased. With the Karan harvest in November expected to be below average, despite some crop growth during the August rains, this are will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through December when horticultural crop sales and consumption are likely to increase food consumption.
Poor households in the riverine areas of Middle Shabelle Region, remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) following the below-average Gu harvest in August/September. Flooding in May destroyed much of the crop, which also reduced incomes from agricultural labor and cash crops sales. As severe river floods are highly likely between November and January, poor households are likely to move into Emergency (IPC Phase 4), as trade and agriculture halt.
In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone along the coast of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, unusual livestock deaths have been reported since July, primarily of sheep, both in the coastal plains due to lack of pasture and in the adjacent foothills of the Golis Mountains due to hypothermia during the Karan rains. Most poor households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) but only with the presence of humanitarian assistance.
For more detailed analysis, see the Somalia Food Security Outlook for July to December 2015.