Famine Early Warning Systems Network

October to December 2020 deyr rainfall ranges from near average in south-central and parts of northeastern Somalia to below average in northern and southern Somalia. According to satellite-derived estimates, rainfall was 50-80 percent of the historical average in the North and most of the South, with the deepest deficits of 25-50 percent of average located in parts of Toghdeer and Lower Juba regions (Figure 1). The distribution of the deyr rains during the season was characterized by a timely start in central Hawd Pastoral and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones and a late to very poor start across the rest of the country. Rainfall continued to perform poorly throughout the season in most areas and generally ceased by mid-November. Key exceptions include Bay and Bakool regions, where rainfall was adequate to support agriculture, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone and adjacent areas of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari region, where Cyclone Gati brought heavy rains in late November. East Golis Pastoral and other parts of Northern Inland Pastoral in Bari and Sanaag also benefitted from light to moderate rainfall from the cyclone.

In November and December 2020, the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) conducted several field assessments to assess national cereal crop production. In northwestern Somalia, FSNAU and the Somaliland Ministry of Agriculture and Development report that prospects for the gu/karan harvest in November/December are worse than previously projected. Crop losses were high in Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zone, especially in Borama, Gabiley, and Hargeysa districts. Although initial satellite-derived estimates had previously shown karan rainfall (July-September) performed well, ground evidence indicates that rainfall was poorly distributed and insufficient to support normal crop production. Desert locust and stalk borer damages were also significant.

FSNAU’s preliminary field assessments in southern Somalia indicate total main and off-season deyr cereal production will likely be below the long-term average (1995-2019), but similar to the five-year average given the volatility in annual production in recent years. In general, the late onset and erratic distribution of deyr rainfall led to reductions in planted area and further affected seed germination and crop development. However, localized torrential rainfall in riverine areas led to flash flood events, given the vulnerability of river infrastructure after several seasons of significant flood events and insufficient repairs. Further, the spread of the desert locust upsurge into the South occurred earlier in the deyr agricultural season in 2020 than in 2019, resulting in significant damage to crops in marginal agropastoral livelihood zones and riverine areas in Hiiraan and Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, as well as agropastoral areas in central Somalia. Estimates of damage caused by desert locust are unavailable but are assessed to be significant among cereal, sesame, and vegetable crops.

As a result, there are significant regional differences in cereal production prospects for the main deyr harvest in January/February 2020. Significant crop losses are reported in riverine areas in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, and the Juba regions. Significant losses are also reported in Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, marginal agropastoral areas in Gedo, Hiiraan, the Jubas, and Middle Shabelle, and Cowpea Belt Agropastoral livelihood zone. Conversely, crop production in agropastoral areas of Bakool, Bay, and Lower Shabelle and riverine areas of Lower Shabelle are performing well, aided by better rainfall performance as well as the availability of irrigation, despite the presence of negative factors such as pest infestation, excessive soil moisture and difficult weed control, and insecurity.

While main season production prospects are poor in riverine areas, the early-season floods are conducive to off-season recessional cultivation of vegetables, cowpeas, and sesame. These activities have gradually started as of early December in riverine areas in Gedo, Juba, Middle Shabelle, and Hiiraan. As a result, agriculture labor demand is rising a notably positive effect on wages. In Rahole of Bu’aale district of Middle Juba, the daily agriculture labor wage rate could fetch 9 kg of white maize in December, which is more than four times higher than December 2019 and 80 percent above the five-year average.  Although rainfall performance was generally below average, livestock production conditions have remained favorable through December due to the high availability of dry pasture in the North and the regeneration of vegetation in cyclone-affected areas and south-central Somalia. According to satellite-derived estimates and field assessment information, pasture and water availability increased significantly in most north-central pastoral and agropastoral areas. However, rangeland in the South has been more significantly affected by poor rainfall as well as the ongoing desert locust infestation. In particular, vegetation is below normal in most of Gedo and the Juba regions and some parts of Bakool, Bay, Hiiraan, and Lower Shabelle. As of December, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed a declining and below-normal trend in vegetation across southern and central Somalia and deteriorating but mixed vegetation in the North (Figure 2). The risk of additional desert locust damage to rangeland is highest in the South due to prevailing wind patterns that are encouraging southward swarm migration, especially in riverine areas of the Shabelle regions.

Livestock body conditions for all species are average to good (PET score 3-4) in most parts of the country owing to improved rangeland conditions and availability of dry pasture. In most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones, livestock migration broadly remained normal within the traditional wet grazing areas in December. However, in some north-central pastoral livelihood zones, early livestock migration is occurring from rain-deficit areas to areas in Hawd Pastoral and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones with better pasture and water availability. According to field assessment information, a medium level of camel, goat, and sheep births is reported in most pastoral and agropastoral areas. Cattle calving rates are medium to low in the South and low in the Northwest. In general, the births have led to an increase in household herd sizes and income from milk sales, while offering an increase in milk consumption. However, pastoralists in northern rainfall-deficit areas (specifically in Northern Inland Pastoral of Northwest, Addun Pastoral of Northeast, Coastal Deeh Pastoral, and East Golis Pastoral of Northwest) report below-normal milk production, negatively affecting both household consumption and income from milk.

Staple food prices broadly declined after peaking in October. Maize and sorghum availability is now ample in most markets, as early-harvested crops arrived on the market in December along with the delayed, off-season gu harvests in September to October. In the North, local stocks from the gu/karan harvest have also been boosted by steady import flows from Ethiopia. In December, sorghum and maize prices were near the 2019 and recent five-year averages across most reference markets. In Baidoa, for example, the retail price of a kilogram of red sorghum was SOS 6,600, which is similar to November 2020, December 2019, and the December five-year average. In Qorioley, the retail price of a kilogram of maize was SOS 5,300, which was also similar to all three reference periods. Similar trends are observed across the South, including in Mogadishu and Kismayo, as well as in central and northwestern regions. The main exception is the Northeast, where local monetary policy is driving depreciation of the Somali Shilling and placing upward pressure on imported and domestic staple food prices.

On average, the price of a local quality goat declined seasonally by five percent from November to December as pastoralists typically sell some livestock at the end of the rainfall season to pay off debt and purchase other household needs, leading to a temporary increase in market supply. An exception to this trend is observed in parts of central and northern Somalia, where livestock migration to areas with better rangeland resource availability has led to an increase in the local goat price as market supply fell. Overall, in most regions, livestock prices – and especially local goat prices – prices varied between SOS 902,500 – SOS 2,017,142 per goat and were similar to higher than both the December 2019 and December five-year averages. The highest price was observed in the Northeast and the lowest in the Juba regions.

Despite positive market trends nationally, protracted conflict and insecurity continue to limit trade movement in Bakool, Matabaan of Hiiraan, Xaradheere, Ceel Dheer, and Ceel Buur districts of Galgaduud region, Wanlaweyn district of Lower Shabelle, and Caadale district of Middle Shabelle. Unresolved inter-clan conflict is also a contributing factor to periodic disruptions to trade and livestock and population movements in Wanlaweyn of Lower Shabelle, Awdwak of Galgaduud, and Matabaan of Hiraan. Further, episodic conflict continues to lead to the loss of lives and productive assets.

Given the above factors, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes remain most likely across many agropastoral and pastoral areas of Somalia. Cyclone-affected areas in Bari region remain of highest concern, where Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely due to significant livestock losses and damage to water and fishing infrastructure on top of existing shocks, including prior droughts and a decline in fishing exports throughout the pandemic. According to Somalia Food Security Cluster reports, humanitarian actors have reached an average of 1,828,331 people per month with food assistance from October through December 2020, which is 5 percent higher than the monthly average in the July to September 2020 period. 42 percent and 37 percent of the total beneficiary population were located in the South and Northwest, respectively.