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FSNAU Quarterly Brief - Focus on Post-Deyr 2018 Season Early Warning

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Somalia
  • December 2018
FSNAU Quarterly Brief - Focus on Post-Deyr 2018 Season Early Warning

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  • Key Messages
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    Key Messages
    • According to the consensus forecast from Greater Horn of Africa Climate outlook Forum (GHACOF50) issued at the end of August 2018, there was a greater likelihood of normal to above normal 2018 Deyr (October – December) rains across Somalia. Above-average Deyr rains were also expected to cause flooding in flood-prone low-lying and riverine livelihoods of the country. However, actual Deyr season rainfall between October and early December 2018 turned out to be below average in most parts of the country.
    • Livestock holdings among poor pastoral households in northeastern and central Somalia remain below baseline. Livestock body conditions, reproduction, and milk production and availability are below average to poor in areas that received below average Deyr rains. With few saleable animals, poor pastoralists will not be able to meet their food needs, payback accumulated debt and cover increased expenditure on water during the forthcoming dry Jilaal (January – March 2019) season.

    • In Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zone, the 2018 Gu/Karan cereal harvest was estimated at 11,000 tonnes. This is 43 percent lower than the amount projected in July 2018 and 76 percent lower compared to the Gu/Karan average cereal production for 2011 – 2017. The main reasons for poor production are below average and poorly distributed Gu/Karan rains, dry spells, pest infestation, and bird attacks.

    • Due to below-average rainfall amounts and its poor temporal and spatial distribution during the current Deyr season, the overall cereal harvest in southern Somalia is expected to be 30-40 percent below the long-term average. In low potential agropastoral areas, production will be significantly below average to failed.

    • Prices of local and imported food commodities remain stable and there have been slight to moderate reductions in the cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB). There have also been some improvements in the labor-to-cereal terms of trade which measures purchasing power among poor households. However, as market supplies from the forecast below-average 2019 Deyr harvest are expected to be short-lived, local food prices will likely start to increase in February 2019, which will likely adversely impact food security outcomes.

    • Current food security outcomes are broadly consistent with the food security outlook for August to December 2018 that was released in late August 2018, with most rural and urban livelihood zones of the country classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The major exceptions are Guban Pastoral, which is classified as Emergency (IPC phase 4), and Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) of Northwest, which is classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In addition, most of the main IDP settlements are classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3), according to results of the integrated food security and nutrition assessments conducted by FSNAU in November 2018. However, food security conditions are expected to deteriorate  to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between January and May 2019 in Togdheer Agropastoral and NIP of Northeast livelihood zones in northern Somalia, Addun Pastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zones in central Somalia, and Bay-Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone in southern Somalia. The proportion of households facing food consumption gaps and therefore Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is also likely to increase in other agropastoral livelihood zones in Gedo, Hiraan, Bay and Bakool, as well as coastal areas of the Shabelle regions and riverine livelihood zones of Jamame district in Lower Juba. Food security outcomes in these areas, however, are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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