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FSNAU Quarterly Brief - Focus on Post-Deyr 2016 Season Early Warning

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Somalia
  • December 2016
FSNAU Quarterly Brief - Focus on Post-Deyr 2016 Season Early Warning

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  • Key Messages
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    Key Messages
    • As a result of the prolonged harsh Hagaa (July – September), followed by delayed and significantly below-average Deyr (October –December) rains in many parts of Somalia, food security of poor pastoral households has deteriorated since July 2016. Particularly, the acute food security Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) of Bari and Nugaal regions deepened and expanded to NIP of Sool and Sanaag Regions, which were previously classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Similarly, Hawd pastoral of Woqyi Galbed, Togdheer and Sool regions and Southern Inland pastoral of Juba also deteriorated from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Acute food insecurity will persist in most parts of Somalia while further deterioration is expected in many parts of the country. As a result, moderate to large increases in the overall number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are expected through the first half of 2017. Although many areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), several others with deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

    • As a result of sustained moisture stress, less than 40 percent of total planted area is expected to be harvested from all southern Somalia cereal producing regions. Well below-average to poor crop production is expected in the main cereal producing regions of Lower Shabelle and Bay, which normally account for over two-thirds of Deyr cereal production in southern Somalia, largely because of below-average to poor Deyr rains. Similarly, domestic production of cereals is expected to be well below average to poor despite above average Gu-Karan harvest in the northwest. FSNAU preliminary estimate indicates that overall Deyr 2016/17 cereal production is expected to be 60-70 percent below the five-year average (2011-2015) and 50-60 percent below the long-term/Post-War average (1995-2015). Continued and further deterioration in food security conditions are expected through the first half of 2017 in most of the agro-pastoral areas in south-central and parts of the pastoral areas in the north and central regions of Somalia.

    • Since August 2016, water trucking has been widespread in most of the berkad-dependent pastoral livelihoods in northern Somalia (NIP, Hawd, Addun, East Golis and Togdher Agropastoral) and central regions (Hawd and Addun), as most surface water catchments did not replenished well. Livestock body conditions are largely below average to poor (PET Score 2-1), owing to poor pasture, water crisis, limited migration options, and drought-induced diseases. According to field reports from NIP, there is high livestock off-take (death and distress selling). Most animals are concentrated near permanent water points, where large numbers of livestock carcasses are observable. Livestock holdings of all wealth groups have reduced in most livelihood zones in the north and parts of southern Somalia. Significant livestock loss has been reported in NIP livelihood zone and further decline is expected through the Jilaal (January-March).

    • Generally, livestock reproduction is expected to diminish for all species. Herd growth and milk production are in a declining trend due to successive poor seasons, prolonged Hagaa (July-September) and failure of Deyr rains. Livestock abortion owing to poor feeding, disease, culling and death of offspring, lactating and weak animals, compounded high off-take. Consequently, pastoral dropout and destitution was reported in large parts of NIP in Bari, Nugal, Sanag and Sool regions. During the Jilaal, extreme pasture and water shortages could be expected in large parts of northern and central regions as well parts of southern Somalia, particularly in Gedo, Bakool, Hiran, Middle Shabelle and along the coast from south to north.

    • Findings from the 2016 post-Deyr nutrition assessment indicate Critical levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM ≥15%) in five out of 12 IDP populations surveyed. These are Mogadishu and Dhusamareb IDPs in south-central and Bossaso, Garowe, and Qardho in the northeast. Despite some improvements in the nutrition situation (GAM) among IDPs in Dolow, Dhobley, Baidoa, Kismayo, and Berbera, rapid deterioration since July 2016 was noted among Mogadishu IDPs (14.7% to 16.6%), Dhusamreb IDPs (10.1% to 26.4%), and Qardho IDPs (12.6% to 15.2%). 

    • The worsening nutrition situation among Mogadishu, Dhusamareeb, and Qardho is partly linked to limited access to humanitarian interventions, unstable casual labour for income to purchase food, high morbidity, low immunization coverage, continuous arrival of new IDPs, and on-going evictions, particularly among Mogadishu IDPs. Nutrition interventions should be prioritized to displaced populations and accompanied by efforts to reduce high morbidity and improving health services. Across the 12 IDP areas surveyed in Somalia, the Deyr 2016 assessments identified a total of 18,450 acutely malnourished children, which include 4,200 who are severely malnourished.


    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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