Bay Bakool agropastoral areas face risk of Famine if <i>gu</i> rains underperform

• FEWS NET assesses a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral Livelihood Zones starting in the June to September period. Following the failed 2025 deyr season and poor start to the gu rains, acute malnutrition has sharply risen while food assistance levels are at historic lows. In Burhakaba district of Bay, malnutrition has surpassed the 30 percent WHZ threshold associated with Famine (IPC Phase 5), while many other areas recorded a MUAC that exceeded the 15 percent Famine threshold. The most likely scenario assumes gu rainfall continues through the normal end of the season, enabling households to access up to two months of cereal harvests, driving modest food security improvements. However, if the gu rains end early, or should prolonged dry spells emerge during critical stages of crop development in May and June, a second consecutive season of crop failure would drive rapidly increasing levels of hunger, acute malnutrition, and hunger-related mortality, resulting in Famine (IPC Phase 5).
• Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected through September, with a small proportion of the population in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) until green harvesting begins. FEWS NET assesses that a greater proportion of households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse due to sharper increases in food and fuel costs and poorer gu performance than previously anticipated. In pastoral areas, below-average livestock productivity, high food prices, and insecurity will constrain food access, especially in areas facing multiple poor seasons. In agropastoral areas, below-average gu main season harvests will support improvements to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in highly cropping-dependent areas and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in those with more substantial livestock production.
• Somalia is highly dependent on imported food and fuel from the Gulf region and is exposed to regional supply and price shocks. Following recent events in the Middle East, domestic fuel prices continued to surge, increasing as much as 57 percent between March and April alone. This is expected to drive upward pressure on already above-average food prices, further constraining food access, through at least September.

This report provides an update to the February 2026 to September 2026 Food Security Outlook and March 2026 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of May 8, 2026.

Mixed start to the gu rains: Overall, gu rains arrived on time or slightly early. However, precipitation to date has been below average (notably in south-central and northeastern Somalia), unevenly distributed, and left portions of the northeast relatively dry. Below-average precipitation, combined with existing extreme moisture deficits after an atypically harsh jilaal dry season, delayed the effective start of season (Figure 1). Across most of the country, light to moderate rainfall partially replenished water catchments and initiated pasture regeneration. However, overall rangeland recovery remains limited following the failed 2025 deyr season (see the December 2025 Somalia Food Security Outlook Update and East Africa Food Security Alert). In the northeast, pasture regeneration has not yet begun due to insufficient rainfall, although water availability has slightly improved. Soil moisture deficits persist, with the largest deficits in south-central Somalia.

Heightened flood risk: Following the start of the rains, downstream Shabelle River levels have substantially risen following favorable March and April rains in Ethiopia. River levels are above long-term averages and are around moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne and Jowhar as of late April. In the near term, this poses localized flood risks.

Water prices: In borehole-dependent areas such as Baidoa, water prices are around 75-100 percent higher than last year and the five-year average, due to atypically dry conditions. In riverine towns, however, prices declined: In Jilib, for example, prices are down by 18 percent from last month and 33 percent from the five-year average.

Cropping activities: Land preparation and wet planting for the gu season, as well as seed germination, were delayed in portions of south-central Somalia, most notably Bay Region. This lowered agricultural labor opportunities and wages in agropastoral areas, a key source of income during the lean season.

Off-season deyr harvests: March off-season crop harvests in riverine areas were poor, especially for sesame and cowpea. During the jilaal dry season, worsening soil dryness, upstream water salinity, and downstream drying along the Shabelle River forced riverine farmers to halt irrigation, placing fruit and cash crops under intense moisture stress. Rising global fuel prices further increased costs for tractor hire, irrigation pumping, and transport, leading many farmers to scale back mechanized land preparation and labor demand.

Fuel and food prices: Fuel prices have surged since March following recent events in the Middle East, which have in turn contributed to increased food prices. In monitored markets, fuel prices jumped 8 to 57 percent between March and April, resulting in prices 21 to 92 percent higher than the same time last year. Red sorghum prices in Baidoa and imported rice prices in Bossaso port increased 6 and 16 percent, respectively, compared to March, and were 76 and 16 percent higher year-on-year.

Livestock conditions: Small ruminants and cattle were widely emaciated following the harsh jilaal dry season, which was characterized by high livestock mortality, abortions, and disease. With the gu rains, livestock conditions have improved somewhat, though they remain worse than normal. In northern pastoral areas, though, only localized improvements have occurred and many livestock, including some emaciated camels (Figure 2), remain too weak to migrate.

Livestock exports: Despite a short, approximately two-week disruption in March 2026, the impacts of events in the Middle East on live animal exports from Somalia have been limited, as most are exported to Saudi Arabia via the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Livestock exports in the first quarter of 2026 were 24 percent above the 2021-2025 quarter one average, but slightly below 2024 and 2025 quarter one export levels. Exports to the Gulf, however, are understood to be highly disrupted.

Conflict: Internal conflict and instability continue to escalate. Al-Shabaab has consolidated control around Mogadishu and their activity has expanded, including March assaults that killed at least 47 civilians. The group reinforced supply routes in Middle Juba and Lower Shabelle, extorting traders and restricting movement, exacerbating transport and food cost increases. Political disputes tied to the 2026 elections are straining relations between the federal government and states. Southwest State faces heightened insecurity ahead of the May 10 elections. Clan conflicts over scarce pasture and water continue to escalate. Violence, extortion, and restrictions are disrupting trade, limiting market access, and reducing access to livelihoods.

Displacement: Newly released official figures also demonstrate large-scale displacement during the first quarter of 2026, with 542,548 people displaced (92 percent due to drought and 7 percent from conflict). Central regions recorded the highest share with 52 percent of total displacements, followed by the Shabelles (22 percent) and Jubas (10 percent). In April, 38,190 people were newly displaced. Nearly 20 percent were reportedly displaced by conflict, with the majority from Lower Shabelle.

Humanitarian food assistance

According to the Food Security Cluster, humanitarian food assistance reached approximately 653,520 people in March. This represents an 83 percent increase above initial planning figures and reflects efforts to expand coverage despite persistent funding shortfalls. However, this is still far below the over 1 million people reached during the same time last year (when overall humanitarian needs were also relatively lower). Internally displaced population (IDPs) beneficiaries fell by 30 percent from February 2026, while non‑IDP beneficiaries declined by 10 percent. These reductions underscore mounting operational and resource constraints at a time when needs are extremely high and at annual peaks, highlighting the deepening gap between assistance delivered and the scale of need.

FEWS NET has re-assessed the key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario for the Somalia Food Security Outlook from February 2026 to September 2026 based on new evidence. Revised assumptions include:

• The April-June 2026 gu rainfall season in Somalia is expected to be cumulatively below-to-near average and end on time between mid-to-late June. Erratic spatiotemporal distribution is likely to result in substantial moisture deficits across agropastoral and riverine areas of Bay, Bakool, Shabelle, and Juba regions, and parts of Hawd Pastoral and Northern Inland Pastoral Livelihood Zones.
• The June-September karan rains in northwestern Somalia are expected to be near average.
• The main season gu harvest in July is expected to be substantially below average. Despite favorable rainfall levels, the gu off-season harvest in September is expected to be slightly below average given increased pump irrigation costs.
• Agricultural labor opportunities are likely to be below to near average between late May and September. Wages are expected to be below average due to atypically low demand or high local labor supply.
• Partial pasture and waterpoint regeneration is expected during May. Pasture and water availability are expected to decline between June and September in areas that do not receive July to August xagaa rains, and stabilize in those that do. Conditions will deteriorate most rapidly in areas where the gu rains performed the poorest.
• Livestock body conditions are expected to improve to near average starting in May, except in northeastern areas where only limited improvements are expected. Above-average conditions are likely in areas benefiting from xagaa or karan rains between July and September. In contrast, conditions are expected to substantially deteriorate in areas with the most significant gu rainfall deficits and limited access to pasture and water in riverine areas. 
• Maize and red sorghum prices are expected to be 30 to 50 percent above the five-year average in the south, and from 60 to 80 percent above average in the northwest, through at least July, due to extremely low stocks and increased demand. Cross-border inflows from neighboring Ethiopia are expected to be below average, most impacting market supply in central and northern areas. Prices are expected to briefly and shallowly declining with the gu harvest in July through September.
• Imported food prices are expected to increase and remain above average due to increases in fuel prices, shipping and transport costs, and supply disruptions resulting from ongoing events in the Middle East. Continued disruptions to Red Sea shipping will exert upward pressure on food and fuel prices through increased freight charges and delayed imports. Though it is unlikely to substantially impact prices in the near-term, a spike in piracy incidents off the coast of Somalia in late April has compounded concerns about potential disruptions to Red Sea shipping.
• Livestock exports to Saudi Arabia are expected to be near average. However, meat exports to Gulf markets remain disrupted and are expected to remain below average through September 2026.
• Goat-to-cereal and labor-to-cereal terms of trade (TOT) are projected to remain below average due to above-average domestic and imported cereal prices. The labor-to-cereal TOT will improve moderately in favor of laborers from July as local cereal supplies improve with the gu harvest, and peak between July and September.
• Remittance flows from Gulf countries are expected to be below average.

Humanitarian food assistance

According to the Food Security Cluster, planned humanitarian food assistance is expected to reach a monthly average of 691,834 people between April and June. This reflects more than a four-fold increase over initial projections. However, average monthly beneficiaries remain almost 20 percent lower than the same period in 2025, and over 50 percent lower than in 2024, when assistance needs were substantially lower. As no plans for assistance beyond July have yet been developed and shared, this analysis assumes no food assistance between July and September.

FEWS NET’s projected area-level outcomes remain unchanged from the February Food Security Outlook, which anticipated widespread area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes across Somalia through September 2026. However, FEWS NET now expects a higher share of the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes due to sharper increases in imported food and fuel prices and a poorer rainfall performance than previously anticipated.

Northern and central pastoral areas

Between April and May, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Addun Pastoral, Northern Inland Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral Livelihood Zones, with a small number of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in areas where households had better livestock migration options, or in areas less impacted by previous poor seasons and insecurity. Improving livestock body conditions will increase livestock values and access to saleable animals. However, sharply increased imported food prices, limited access to saleable animals, and little to no milk availability will constrain food access. Poor households that have saleable animals are likely to engage in distress sales to mitigate their widening consumption gaps, while others are likely to resort to begging. Acute malnutrition is expected to range from Serious (10-14.9 percent) to Critical (15-29.9 percent).

From June to September, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist amid below-average and spatially uneven pasture regeneration and water point replenishment. Atypically low incomes from livestock and livestock product sales, persistent insecurity, and high food prices will severely constrain food access. Many households will continue to experience moderate to large food consumption deficits, despite limited seasonal declines in domestic cereal prices. Only limited improvements in acute malnutrition are expected. 

Southern agropastoral and riverine areas

Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist through May in Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Livelihood Zones, with some households likely facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Areas with better market access or more diverse livelihood opportunities are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Although seasonal agricultural labor opportunities increased slightly in April following the onset of the gu rains, the poor rainfall performance will limit this income source. Most poor households will be unable to afford increasingly expensive food purchases with below-average incomes. Years of drought and conflict have severely eroded household coping capacity, and many households will be unable to mitigate their widening food consumption gaps without resorting to selling remaining assets or begging. However, access to bush products for consumption and sale, food sharing during the Hajj in May, informal labor opportunities, and sustained social support networks will prevent worse area-level outcomes from emerging during the peak of the April to June lean season. According to recent data jointly collected by FSNAU and WFP between late March and early April, average global acute malnutrition (GAM) using weight-for-height z-scores (WHZ) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) WHZ in Bay Agropastoral areas were 25.2 and 5.8 percent, respectively; morbidity was high at 36.4 percent. In Burhakaba district, GAM and SAM rates were extremely high at 37.1 and 10.2 percent, above the Famine (IPC Phase 5) GAM WHZ threshold of 30 percent. Acute malnutrition levels are expected to deteriorate through May and remain Critical (15-29.9 percent) in most areas and Extremely Critical (≥30 percent) in Burhakaba. This will mostly be driven by poor food consumption, worsening disease, and decreased access to health and nutrition services.  

Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in June, as households benefit from food gifts, green harvests and zakat related to Eid al-Adha festivities in June and main gu harvests in July. However, the anticipated poor gu rains and substantially below-average harvests are expected to limit the scale of seasonal improvements in household food stocks, labor incomes, and market supply. High debt burdens and above-average food prices are expected to continue constraining household purchasing power. In riverine areas and among households with relatively larger livestock holdings – such as in Southern Agropastoral Livelihood Zone of Bakool, Gedo, and Juba – Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to emerge, though some households will still face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Acute malnutrition levels are expected to remain Critical (15-29.9 percent) to Extremely Critical (≥30 percent) through June, with limited improvements expected after the July harvest.

Northwestern agropastoral areas

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across the area through September, with many households likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), as households continue to contend with depleted food stocks, limited milk availability, and high food prices. Although the June to September karan rains are expected to support pasture regeneration and improve livestock productivity, below-average herd sizes and low to no births will continue to constrain milk access, while elevated food prices limit household purchasing power. Poor households are expected to continue relying on unsustainable coping strategies, including reducing meal frequency and portion sizes and cutting expenditures on health and education. Acute malnutrition is expected to be Serious (10-14.9 percent), and only limited improvements in acute malnutrition are expected between June and September.

Southern pastoral areas

Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist through May in the Juba Pastoral – Cattle and Goats Livelihood Zone, with improvement to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in June. Improving water availability, pasture conditions, and livestock body conditions are expected to increase households’ access to saleable animals, which will increase households’ food access. However, recovery is likely to remain slow given the scale of livestock deaths and income losses that occurred during the previous deyr and jilaal dry seasons. Many poor households are expected to continue engaging in livestock distress sales or begging to mitigate their remaining food consumption gaps. Persistently high food prices will limit improvements in food consumption associated with the gu green and main harvests. Across the remaining southern pastoral areas that received better gu rains or have better livestock migration options, larger herd sizes, or greater proximity to Mogadishu markets, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through May. Improvement to area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is expected by June due to increased livestock values and access to saleable animals. Malnutrition will remain Critical (15-29.9 percent) until the gu green harvest and marginally improve through September.

IDP settlements

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are expected through September in most IDP settlements due to limited livelihood options, high staple prices, heightened competition for informal labor opportunities, and escalating insecurity. Until May, most IDP settlements will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and pockets of households are likely to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected in Dhuusamarreeb through May, the only IDP settlement where planned assistance distributions are expected to mitigate worse area-level outcomes. Between June and September, Kismaayo and Doolow, where displaced populations are more linked with rural areas and will directly benefit from even below-average harvests, are expected to improve to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Critical (15-29.9) levels of acute malnutrition are expected through at least June due to inadequate food consumption compounded by limited access to water, sanitation, and health services.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Livelihood Zones

Early cessation of the gu rains around the end of May or prolonged dry spells during the critical crop development period in May and June

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: If the gu rains end prematurely in late May, or if prolonged dry spells emerge during the critical crop development period in May and June, a second consecutive season of crop failures in highly crop-dependent areas of Bay, Bakool, and Gedo regions would be expected, and Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur between June and September, with high concern that all three technical thresholds may be crossed in as soon as 2-3 months. Consecutive below-average to failed seasons led to Famine (IPC Phase 5) in southern agropastoral areas in 2010/11 and 2016/17, and nearly resulted in Famine (IPC Phase 5) in 2022-2023.

A below-average 2026 gu rainfall performance, combined with existing drought-induced moisture deficits, delayed the start of the gu cultivation season in south-central Somalia and resulted in late germination of crops. This unfolded alongside the worst food security outcomes observed since the peak of the 2020-2023 drought. Parts of southern agropastoral areas have faced multiple failed or below-average harvests, historic high food and water prices, sharp increases in fuel costs, and high household debts. Livelihoods remain under severe strain due to lost harvests and agricultural incomes, weakened livestock, below-average and declining herd sizes, escalating conflict and political instability, and overstretched social support networks. This is also amid historic low levels of humanitarian food assistance and cuts to already inadequate health and nutrition services, compounding acute food insecurity risks.

Acute malnutrition levels in southern Somalia have historically been high. However, substantial deteriorations in acute malnutrition have already been observed in recent months, driven by the compounding impacts of worsening food consumption, disease, and access to nutrition and health services. During the peak of the deyr lean season in late November/early December 2025, GAM and SAM WHZ were 19.5 and 4.4 percent in Bay Agropastoral areas, with an estimated morbidity of 30.5 percent. By mid-April, average GAM WHZ and SAM WHZ rates in Bay Agropastoral areas had risen to 25.2 and 5.8 percent, respectively, a statistically significant deterioration, and morbidity rose to 36.4 percent. GAM and SAM rates reached as high as 37.1 and 10.2 percent in Burhakaba agropastoral areas, surpassing Famine (IPC Phase 5) GAM WHZ thresholds (30 percent); this district has experienced a comparatively sharp reduction in health and nutrition services in recent months. In Baidoa, GAM and SAM admissions sharply increased, including a 78 percent increase in SAM admissions between January and March. Mortality remained stable at a crude death rate (CDR) of 0.40. 

If the gu rains cease prematurely (by the end of May), or prolonged dry spells emerge during the critical flowering and grain-filling crop development periods in June, FEWS NET assesses that there is a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) between June and September due to widespread crop failure. Several pieces of evidence point to a moderate likelihood of this alternative scenario materializing, including below-average short and longer-term rainfall forecasts through June, typically low June rainfall totals, and historically volatile rainfall patterns in Somalia.

In this scenario, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would emerge between June and September, with high concern that all three technical thresholds may be crossed in as soon as 2-3 months, in the highly crop-dependent areas of Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral Livelihood Zone and the Sorghum High Potential Livelihood Zone of Bay Region. If a second harvest fails, households will lose own produced crops and agricultural labor wages, their two most critical sources of food and income. Poor households will have seen minimal income for nearly a year. Local labor supply would surge as households try to mitigate agricultural losses, driving intense competition and plummeting wages for limited informal labor opportunities. Wild food availability and income-earning potential from bush product collection and sales would also plummet due to overexploitation of these resources and heightened market competition. At the same time, typical seasonal food price decreases would fail to occur, and prices would remain at historic highs, leading to a dramatic drop in household purchasing capacity. Poor households do not have the capacity to cope with yet another season of losing their most critical sources of food and income; it is likely that many have already liquidated their remaining assets. Already weakened social support networks would become overwhelmed by the scale of need and be unable to prevent deepening hunger, further deteriorations in acute malnutrition, and rapid increases in hunger-related mortality from materializing. The likely interaction of extreme hunger, high levels of acute malnutrition and morbidity, and lack of access to critical health and nutrition services signals a risk of mortality rates crossing the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold in the near term should this scenario materialize.

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s February 2026 to September 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.