Many households face difficult road to recovery despite good gu rains

• As Somalia begins to slowly emerge from the historic 2020-2023 drought, it remains vital for humanitarian food and nutrition assistance to rapidly reach the millions of households who remain acutely food insecure. Many households endured the significant erosion of their livelihoods, became destitute, or accrued substantial debts to survive. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are currently widespread, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in localized pastoral and agropastoral areas and many settlements of internally displaced people (IDPs). A scale-down of humanitarian assistance is expected to occur between July and September 2023 due to insufficient funds, leaving additional pastoral areas and IDP settlements to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

• During the January to March 2023 jilaal dry season, the impacts of drought continued to result in significantly low food availability and access across most of Somalia. Many poor households had below-average or negligible food stocks from the 2022 deyr harvest, few to no saleable livestock, and little-to-no livestock milk production. However, food security conditions began to improve gradually, especially in parts of the south, supported by less severe rainfall deficits in late 2022 compared to the past four seasons, a decline in staple food prices, and sustained, large-scale, multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance.  

• A near-average April to June 2023 gu season rainfall is expected to facilitate the partial recovery of cropping and livestock production conditions, particularly in areas where the drought was less severe and where humanitarian aid mitigated the scale of livelihood erosion and destitution. Nevertheless, poor and destitute agropastoral households no longer hold the asset base or purchasing power to re-invest in or benefit from their traditional agricultural livelihoods. The gu harvest in July, as well as associated crop sales and labor income, is expected to be below the 10-year average, and the impact of the rains on livestock reproduction will not manifest until the subsequent birthing period during the 2023 deyr season.

• Given the limited pace and degree of recovery during the gu rains, millions of households are expected to have moderate to large food consumption gaps or engage in severe coping strategies during the July to September hagaa season, which is dry for most of the country. Humanitarian funding is sufficient to deliver food assistance to around 4-5 million people through June, but a massive scale-down in assistance levels is anticipated from July to September, according to the Food Security Cluster. Amid low levels of aid, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will likely become more widespread in IDP settlements and the more arid pastoral and agropastoral areas of central and northern Somalia.

• Although the severity of the drought is easing in the south, there remains a risk of Famine among IDP populations in Baidoa, Mogadishu, Galkacyo, and Dhusamareeb and pastoral areas in central Somalia in the Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones, if humanitarian aid ceases to be delivered to these areas. Given the erosion or complete loss of livelihoods, minimal sources of income, and high food prices, these populations would most likely face worsening hunger and rapid increases in acute malnutrition levels, leading to rising hunger-related mortality. If aid is absent throughout the July to September period, Famine (IPC Phase 5) could occur. However, conditions in rural Bay Region are on an improving trajectory, alleviating the risk of Famine for households that remain in or have returned to this area.

Rainfall performance: Prior to the to the start of the gu rains in April, many parts of Somalia received atypically high amounts of todob rainfall since mid-March, with some areas receiving torrential rainfall. Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Bay, Bakool, and most parts of Mudug, Galgaduud, Middle Juba, and Gedo regions received rainfall sufficient to replenish water sources and begin to rejuvenate pasture. However, due to the initial dryness of the drought-affected soil and heavy rain, flash floods occurred in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bari, Nugaal, and Gedo regions, damaging road infrastructure and disrupting both population and trade movements. Rapidly rising water levels in the Juba and Shabelle rivers also resulted in flooding in riverine areas, destroying standing off-season crops and assets in affected areas and causing temporary population displacement in Middle Juba region, Jowhar district of Middle Shabelle, Beletweyne district of Hiiraan region and Baardheere district of Gedo region. On the other hand, these floods will benefit recessional cultivation in low-lying deshek areas (natural depressions in the flood plain) in the Juba regions and increase household access to river fishing. Meanwhile, the rest of the country experienced localized light or light-to-moderate rainfall from mid-March to early April, which slightly improved water availability, though resources were quickly depleted again due to the high concentration of livestock.

The April to June 2023 gu rainy season began early with favorable rainfall in many southern areas (including Bay, Bakool, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba regions) and northwestern areas (Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and parts of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions). In other areas, including Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, Hiiraan region, and parts of central and northeastern regions, rainfall onset was either on time or poorly established, with localized light to moderate rainfall received. As of the end of April, cumulative rainfall was near average across most of the country; exceptions to this trend included above-average rainfall in some southwestern and northwestern areas and below-average rainfall in some northeastern, central, and southern areas (Figure 1). There are reports of localized flooding in parts of Gedo Middle Juba, Middle Shabelle, and Hiiraan regions, resulting in loss of life, population displacement, and moderate to severe damage to standing crops, feeder roads, markets, and houses. According to FAO SWALIM river station gauge data on April 27, most monitored river gauge water levels in both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers had risen above the long-term mean and were near “moderate flood risk” levels.

Livestock production: After five successive seasons of below-average or failed rainfall, a hotter and drier-than-normal January to March 2023 jilaal dry season exacerbated already severe pasture and water scarcity in the northern, central, and Hiiraan regions, according to field reports and remote sensing data as of the end of March. In most of these areas, water scarcity has increasingly forced households to purchase water from water trucks amid high water prices that in March 2023 ranged from 6 to 28 percent above the five-year average. Given pasture shortages, households also had to divert income to purchase animal feed to save weak animals. As a result, livestock body conditions are mostly poor to below normal in these regions, particularly for cattle, sheep, lactating animals, and young offspring. Some livestock abortions and deaths have also been reported due to the need to travel long distances in search of water and pasture as well as due to increased incidence of drought-induced diseases.

More recently, the start of the gu rains in April has led to slight improvement in pasture and water availability. This has been supporting some improvement in livestock body conditions and conceptions. However, livestock births will not occur until at least October 2023 and, as such, milk production remains low to nonexistent in northern and central areas and in Gedo and Hiiraan regions due to low-to-no livestock births during the October to December 2022 deyr season, according to field reports from Somalia’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU). In most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones, milk production of all livestock species is low.

Meanwhile, in Bari, Bay, Bakool, and Juba regions, relatively better deyr 2022 rainfall was followed by an overall mild jilaal dry season, including helpful todob rains received in late March 2023. As such, the availability of dry pasture and water is near normal, supporting improvement in livestock productivity and reproduction in these regions. In Juba, Bay, Bakool, Bari, and Lower Shabelle regions and the Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in the northeast, livestock – including populations of animals that have migrated to these areas from elsewhere – are reported to be recovering from impacts of the drought in terms of health and body weight and are generally in average condition, according to field reports conducted by FSNAU. Gradual recovery is also ongoing in other parts of the country that received moderate todob rains in late March 2023. In these southern areas, and some northern areas that received better rainfall in late December, normal sheep and goat births started in late March and milk production is expected to increase to medium levels by early May.

Crop production: In March 2023, FEWS NET and FSNAU conducted a rapid assessment of the off-season crop harvest in Middle Shabelle, Gedo, and Lower and Middle Juba regions and the status of gu cropping activities (land tillage, sowing, irrigation, etc.) across the country. According to the assessment results, an estimated 3,960 tons of off-season crops were harvested in riverine areas between late February and March 2023, only 41 percent of the five-year average (2017 to 2021) and 32 percent lower than what was projected in January 2023. The estimated total included cereals (2,600 MT), sesame (1,090 MT), and cowpea (260 MT). Below-average off-season production was due to the impacts of ongoing insecurity, a large influx of livestock into riverine areas, and accelerated soil moisture depletion due to above normal temperatures in the January to March jilaal season, as well as due to unforeseen factors, namely decreased river water levels during critical crop establishment periods and destruction from flooding in March in Gedo, Middle Shabelle, and Middle Juba regions.

Apart from harvesting of off-season cereal and cash crops in riverine areas in late February and March, cropping activities during the January to March jilaal dry season were largely typically limited to gu land preparation in March, with overall seasonally low demand for farm labor. Seasonal gu 2023 cropping activities began on the earlier side, by late March, in most areas of south-central Somalia and in the northwestern agropastoral areas that received good todob rains; in April, cropping activities were additionally underway on a timely basis in the remaining northwestern agropastoral areas (Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed) and the central cowpea belt. These activities span land preparation, seed planting, ridging, and early irrigation in riverine areas. While the season started generally favorably, there are several negative factors constraining gu production. First, some localized areas experienced excessive wetness, which has delayed planting. Second, farming activities remain constrained in areas affected by conflict and insecurity, including Hiiraan, Galgaduud, Middle Shabelle, and Bakool regions. Third, poor and destitute households displaced by drought have a significantly reduced capacity to invest in planting, though the severity of this is mitigated by the availability of established borrowing and loan systems with traders, which is also expected to boost the ability of middle and better-off households’ capacity to hire labor to plant. This is a particular concern in riverine areas – and particularly upstream areas in Gedo and Hiiraan that rely on pump irrigation – where more agricultural inputs are required for production systems, high costs of fuel, cash crop seeds, pesticides, and tillage (given high global prices and taxes imposed by insurgents) are affecting cultivation capacity.

Currently in April, with extensive gu seasonal farming activities now underway across most agricultural areas (mainly in the south of the country), demand for labor and wage rates are improving. In most districts of Hiiraan, Gedo, Juba, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions, nominal wage rates have increased significantly from March to April alongside planting and canal and water catchment rehabilitation, to reach levels significantly higher than last year and above the five-year and longer-term averages.

Markets and trade: According to data from FSNAU and FEWS NET, local cereal prices were generally stable from February to March 2023, after declining since late 2022 (Figure 3). Average prices in March were significantly lower than the same time last year but still moderately above the five-year average due to low supply following multiple consecutive seasons of below-average production. In Baidoa of Bay region, the key reference market in sorghum-producing areas, the price of sorghum in March was similar to the previous month but 42 percent below last year and 10 percent above the five-year average. Similarly, in Qoryooley of Lower Shabelle region, the key reference market in maize-producing areas, the price of maize in March was stable from February to March but 28 percent below last year and 30 percent higher than the five-year average.

Prices of imported foods such as vegetable oil, wheat flour, and rice were stable or slightly increased from February to March in most main markets due to increased demand during the Ramadan season. Prices of imported foods remain significantly higher than prices recorded at the same time last year and five-year average levels, largely due to depreciation of the Somali shilling against the US dollar, as well as likely due to tight global supplies of some commodities such as rice.

In southern agricultural areas, the labor-to-cereals terms of trade increased from March to April, primarily due to the seasonal increase in wage rates alongside stable local cereal prices. However, the terms of trade are still below average in most of the south due to above-average cereal prices. In Bay region, for instance, wages from one day of casual labor in March 2023 could buy an average of 8 kilograms of red sorghum, an improvement from the 7 kilograms in the previous month and the 4 kilograms at the same time last year. However, 8 kilograms remains 38 percent lower than the five-year average. Similar trends are observed Gedo, Hiiraan, Shabelle, and Juba regions.

Civil insecurity: During the first quarter of 2023 (January to March), Somalia continued to experience heightened levels of insecurity and conflict. This was occasioned by a renewed offensive against insurgents led by the federal government of Somalia and supported by the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), mostly in the south-central regions (Galgaduud, South Mudug, Middle Shabelle, and Hiiraan). Additionally, armed confrontation persisted in Laascaanood town and spread to parts of Sool region (Xudun and Taleex districts), characterized by clashes between Somaliland forces and local militia (Sool Sanaag and Cayn) following the uprising of local communities against the Somaliland administration in Laascaanood town. Conflict in Laascaanood has taken a devastating toll on civilians, causing death and injuries due to indiscriminate shelling, damaging hospitals and mosques, displacing almost 80 percent of the town’s population, and preventing displaced people from returning to the town.

According to displacement data from UNHCR’s Protection and Return Monitoring Network (PRMN)¹ an estimated 788,671 people were displaced between January and March 2023, about 50 percent (396,842) due to conflict and insecurity and 31 percent (243,983) due to the effects of drought. Another 17 percent were displaced by flooding. The majority of displacement
occurred in Sool (Laascaanood), Gedo, Bay, Galgaduud, Mudug, and Shabelle regions. Displacement separates households from typical livelihoods, reducing access to typical food and income sources.

In addition to causing loss of life, population displacement, and damage to property and assets, conflict has constrained livestock migration opportunities in Galgaduud, Sool, and southern Mudug regions, preventing livestock from benefiting from better resources in areas that received rainfall in March and April. Conflict has also disrupted crop-planting activities in localized affected areas of Lower Shabelle, Bay, and Bakool regions. The insecurity has also disrupted trade flows, mainly in Bay (Dinsor and Qansax Dheere) and Bakool (Hudur and Wajid) regions, and parts of Hiiraan region (Bulo-Burte and Jalalaqsi). The insurgent group continues to collect zakat and illegal taxes and detain elders and humanitarian workers for ransom.

Humanitarian food assistance: The humanitarian food assistance response in Somalia remains underfunded, resulting in humanitarian assistance distributions reaching only 4.5 million people monthly, on average, from January to March according to the Food Security Cluster (FSC) (Figure 5). This is 73 percent of the planned average of 6.2 million people, and 17 percent less than the average 5.4 million people reached monthly in the October to December 2022 period. Overall, though levels of assistance are significantly higher than in prior years, the population in need in 2023 is much higher than the scale of planned assistance deliveries. Additionally, humanitarian access constraints continue to impede food and livelihood assistance delivery in large parts of the south and central regions.

Nutrition: Results of nutrition assessments conducted by FSNAU in March 2023 suggest that the overall nutrition situation in IDP settlements in Baidoa and Mogadishu and in agropastoral areas of Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay region has somewhat improved compared to October 2022, though differences in point estimates are not statistically significant (meaning that it is possible at the 95 percent confidence level/5 percent significance level that malnutrition levels remain similar to those in October 2022) and, overall, the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) remains concerningly high, at levels defined as Critical (15-29.9 percent GAM). Amongst Baidoa IDP settlements, the GAM prevalence was recorded at 15.3 percent (95% CI: 12.3-18.9) in March 2023, compared to 21.2 percent (95% CI: 18.0-24.6) in October 2022. Amongst Mogadishu IDP settlements, the GAM prevalence was recorded at 20.2 percent (95% CI: 16.5-24.5), compared to 24.5 percent (95% CI: 20.6-28.9) in October 2022. Disaggregated data shows that GAM prevalence amongst new arrivals (within the past three months) at Mogadishu IDP sites was lower compared to those who had been there for four months or more; however, amongst Baidoa IDPs, the opposite patterns was observed (though the difference was not statistically significant). In agropastoral areas of Baidoa and Burhakaba, the GAM prevalence was recorded at 15.3 percent (95% CI: 11.9-19.4), compared to 19.8 percent (95% CI: 16.5-23.7) in October 2022. Persistently high morbidity (greater than 20 percent prevalence) levels were also recorded across the surveyed areas, with the highest levels of 33.7 percent recorded amongst Mogadishu IDPs, followed by Baidoa IDPs (30.7 percent). On the one hand, the high levels of disease and medical conditions tends to increase the vulnerability of children facing hunger to malnutrition; on the other hand, the high levels of hunger and malnutrition can increase the vulnerability of children to disease.

The high morbidity rates and critical levels of acute malnutrition are driven by a combination of factors related to disease incidence, food consumption, sanitation and hygiene, and child-feeding practices. The prolonged drought has resulted in reduced food and income from crop and livestock production, including nutritious milk. New arrivals at refugee settlements also experience long wait times for registration upon arrival, delaying receipt of assistance. Poor sanitation and access to safe water and low rates of measles vaccination and vitamin A supplementation also contribute to diseases and acute malnutrition. However, sustained high levels of multisectoral humanitarian interventions (including food security, nutrition, health, water, sanitation, and hygiene), as well as improved availability of casual labor opportunities with the start of the gu season have led to a relative decline in acute malnutrition rates relative to the peak levels observed in April and June 2022.

Current food security outcomes

In southern rural areas that experienced the worst deyr 2022 rainfall deficits – including Hiiraan and Gedo regions and agropastoral livelihood zones in Middle Shabelle – poor households had limited access to income due to poor livestock production and low demand for agricultural labor during the jilaal dry season. With the generally favorable start of the gu season, however, the increase in farming activities has improved job opportunities for poor households in most agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones. Staple cereal prices have also declined to levels lower than the same time last year, though they remain above the five-year average, sustaining pressure on household purchasing power. For example, the daily wage rate in the southern regions currently buys 6 to 8 kilograms of local cereal, which is 20 to 40 percent more than at the same time last year but 12 to 33 percent lower than the five-year average. Given recent improvements and high levels of assistance, most rural areas face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with humanitarian assistance preventing worse outcomes in some areas. However, in Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral, and Southern Agropastoral livelihood zones in Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle, and Hiiraan regions, poor households experienced more significant crop and asset losses during the drought years and many households are still likely facing food consumption gaps as they continue to have very limited income from livestock and livestock product sales and significant accumulated debts to repay. In addition, riverine households recently impacted by floods in Gedo, Middle Juba, and Middle Shabelle regions do not have access to all typical income sources and are likely facing difficulty meeting their basic food and non-food needs. In these areas, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are likely ongoing, with humanitarian assistance preventing worse outcomes.

In northern and central rural areas, although livestock-to-cereal terms of trade are approaching average levels, poor households have only a limited number of livestock to sell given significant losses in the recent drought years. Food security is worsening, as households still have very low milk availability (normally used for consumption and sales) due to low to no livestock births following the drought impacts. Many households are unable to meet their basic needs, and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely ongoing in most areas, with humanitarian assistance preventing worse outcomes. Within these areas, some worst-affected households (less than 20 percent of the population) are likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). However, in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone of Galgaduud and South Mudug and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone, where assistance is reaching less than 25 percent of the population and poor households have significantly below-normal livestock holdings, many households are unable to meet their minimum food needs without selling off their livestock, driving Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.

Amongst IDP settlements, displaced people typically maintain close links to other household members and even other community members who remained behind in areas of origin. However, most displaced households are poor and have very few livelihood assets, few income-earning opportunities, low access to social support, and high dependence on humanitarian assistance. New arrivals face difficulties in accessing humanitarian support as they reach camps, with marginalized people and those from minority clans being the worst affected. In addition to these factors, despite significant multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance, needs continue to exceed the scale of deliveries. As a result, most IDPs are assessed to face moderate to large food consumption gaps indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. In Baidoa and Mogadishu displacement settlements, though Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are still anticipated at the area level, improved conditions in surrounding rural areas during the gu season – such as due to income-earning from agricultural labor – are likely reducing rates of displacement and reducing concern for more extreme outcomes.

In urban areas, poor households spend most of their income (an estimated 60-80 percent) on food. Despite declining food prices, most poor urban households likely continue to face difficulty meeting their minimum food and essential non-food needs given limited productive assets, increased competition for job opportunities due to the influx of displaced households, and food prices that remain above average. In most urban areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely. However, in Laascaanood district of Sool region, recently escalated conflict has claimed many lives, displaced a majority of the township’s people, and disrupted livelihoods, trade, and health and education services. Given ongoing significant humanitarian assistance that is mitigating worse outcomes, most urban households displaced around Laascaanood are expected to be marginally able to meet their minimum food requirements but others are likely facing some food consumption gaps and/or depleting essential livelihood assets to meet their needs, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes expected amongst these households.

Revisions to the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the Somalia Food Security Outlook for February to September 2023 are below; the remainder are unchanged:

• According to international forecasts as of March, cumulative rainfall in the April to June 2022 gu season is likely to range from average to below average. This is likely to replenish pasture and water resources.
• According to international forecasts, the July to September hagaa rains in southern Somalia and the June to September karan rains in northwestern Somalia are likely to be near average. However, there is uncertainty given the long-range nature of the forecast, as there is a high likelihood of El Niño conditions in the coming months. El Niño is associated with an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall in northern Somalia and above-average rainfall in southern Somalia. As such, the forecast for the seasons described here may be revised in the coming months.
• Given expectations for rainfall, it is likely that gu/karan cultivated land area, cereal production, and demand for agricultural labor will be below the 10-year and long-term average, but near the five-year average (which includes eight below-average crop production seasons). Production of sorghum, which requires less water, is expected to be average to above average, while maize production (which mainly comes from Shabelle riverine areas) will likely be below average, with the yellow maize harvest expected around July. Cowpea production, which is more drought-resistant and has a shorter cultivation period, is likely to be near average.

• Locally-produced staple grain prices in Somalia are expected to increase seasonally during the April and June lean period due to dwindling stocks following the below-average deyr harvest in January 2023. In addition, ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall in parts of the country is likely to impede transportation of goods in the hinterlands with poor road infrastructure, putting additional upward pressure on prices.
• Prices of imported commodities are likely to remain stable or decline moderately in the next couple of months due to ample global supply.

• Lack of meaningful dialogue between the parties to the conflict, violence, and heavy fighting between Somaliland security forces and Dhulbahante clan militias are expected to continue in the coming months. 

• Based on revised FSC assistance plans, emergency humanitarian food assistance is expected to reach significantly more people in the April to June period than was previously anticipated due to improved funding. The number that will be reached monthly is expected to remain similar to current levels, with 5.2 million reached in April, 5.1 million reached in May, and 4 million reached in June. From July to September, it is assumed that humanitarian assistance will be significantly scaled down, given inadequate confirmed funding for assistance during this period; district-level distribution plans are not yet available, but it is assumed humanitarians will prioritize the worst-off areas where Risk of Famine is high, and especially IDPs and pastoral areas in central regions.

From April to June, increased access to income from agricultural labor opportunities during the gu season and sustained high levels of humanitarian assistance are likely to provide some important support for many households as food prices seasonally increase. Around July, the arrival of the gu harvest will also improve access to food and income from crop production and sales. However, millions of households will remain unable to meet their needs despite these improvements, due to highly eroded assets (including livestock), high levels of debt, and low-to-no milk production in the gu season due to the ongoing impacts of the recent five-season drought. In central and southern areas, conflict will also continue to disrupt livelihoods and trade. As such, widespread Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, with some areas in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), are expected to persist, with humanitarian assistance continuing to prevent worse outcomes in many areas through June 2023.

In the July to September period, the assumed scale-down of humanitarian assistance is likely to result in a rising number of households facing food consumption gaps. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely to emerge in several additional northern and central pastoral areas, including Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Togdheer and Hargeysa, Addun Pastoral livelihood zone, and Coastal Deeh of the central region, where no livestock births are expected until at least October (outside of the projection period) due to low-to-no conceptions after severe rainfall deficits during the 2022 deyr season. In these areas, households will not be able to access meaningful food and income from livestock products during the projection period. In other areas, the number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes is likely to increase.

Most IDPs do not have meaningful assets and are highly dependent on labor, social support, and humanitarian assistance. Across IDP sites, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist through September, with the number of areas in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) likely to increase from July to September due primarily to the decline in humanitarian assistance. Though households with family members living in settlements in Baidoa and Mogadishu will also be affected by the declining availability of labor opportunities in the July to September period due to seasonal declines in fishing activities, they will continue to access some food and income during this period due to agricultural labor during the gu season, normal access to income from self-employment (garbage collection, firewood and charcoal sales, car washing, shoe polishing, and other petty trade activities), and, beginning around July, food from the gu harvest. In Galkacyo, most of the large population of displaced households are unlikely to return home to surrounding rural areas given that recovery of their typical pastoral livelihoods will take several seasons of improved rainfall.

In most urban areas, poor households are likely to be negatively impacted by rising food prices through the start of gu harvesting around July. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist, though urban areas in Bari, Bay, and Galgaduud regions are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.  In and around Laascaanood town, displaced households will also continue to be affected by very low levels of trading opportunities due to the conflict, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) or worse outcomes expected to persist amongst these households

Though many riverine areas were affected by recent flooding, most will have some access to off-season deyr harvests. Given high use of irrigation resources in upstream riverine areas, poor households in downstream areas are expected to miss potential irrigation access and depend only on rainfall. In Lower and Middle Juba and Lower and Middle Shabelle, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected due to the availability of deyr off-season maize and cowpea crops from April to June, seasonal fish availability, and agricultural labor income. Recessional cultivation will likely be continuous, under the assumption of moderate flood extent during the gu season. Meanwhile, in maize and sorghum-producing riverine areas of Hiiraan and Gedo, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist throughout the projection period due to several successive seasons of poor and below-average harvests, lack of own cereal stock, high indebtedness, and high prices of farm inputs, including diesel, seed, and tractor tillage costs.