Somalia
Download Report
Download Report
- Significantly below-average precipitation from October to December, above-average temperatures, and a forecasted atypically dry January-March jilaal dry season are leading to widespread acute food insecurity in Somalia through May. A severe drought is expected across most of Somalia, driving widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes. The number of poor households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to rise through May, with area-level Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes expected to emerge in Addun Pastoral and Bay/Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones and neighboring settlements of internally displaced persons (IDPs) by February. The areas of highest concern include IDP settlements; southern agropastoral areas in Bay and Bakool; and central and northern pastoral areas. Somalia has not fully recovered from the unprecedented drought of 2020-2023 that depleted rangelands and herds and severely strained livelihoods and support systems. Slow recovery has left areas highly vulnerable to additional weather shocks, compounding the potential impacts of current rainfall deficits and the below-average deyr season.
- Typically, October to December mark the critical deyr rainy season for livestock and crop production across most of Somalia; however, this year’s deyr rains have largely failed to materialize, with essentially no rainfall recorded since late October. Many areas have received less than 30 percent of average rainfall amounts to date. As of November 20, rainfall totals are comparable to the driest seasons recorded since 1981. Most concerningly, the regions of Bay and Sanaag have received almost no rain, with totals resembling previous record-dry seasons. October–November temperatures have also been among the hottest on record, intensifying crop and pasture stress. By mid-November, vegetation conditions are very poor and inadequate to support livestock grazing, and rainfall has been insufficient to initiate rainfed cropping.
- Desiccation of pasture and extremely low water levels in rangeland ponds are expected to lead to deteriorating livestock health and limited livestock milk productivity. Significantly below-average sorghum, maize, and horticulture crop yields are expected during the main harvest season. National sorghum yields will likely be at least 25-30 percent below average and maize yields will likely be at least 20-25 percent below average based on analysis of crop production totals in years with similarly poor rainfall. Drought will likely increase population displacement, leading to heightened competition for already scarce resources and labor opportunities in IDP settlements.
- Rainfall deficits and drought conditions are expected to drive substantial deterioration in poor households’ access to food and income across Somalia through at least May. The below-average deyr season is expected to sharply limit agricultural labor income and food stocks, driving increased market dependence amid rising food prices. Rainfall deficits and the atypically dry jilaal season will further deteriorate livestock body conditions and milk availability for sale and consumption, further limiting access to income and food for pastoral households. Pastoralists have not fully rebuilt their herd sizes since the 2020-2023 drought, and social support systems remain strained and unable to meet growing needs. Poor households will face widening food consumption gaps, while resorting to distress livestock sales, reduced meal size and frequency, and unsustainable borrowing of money to buy food. A surge in drought-induced displacement is expected as many of these households exhaust their coping capacity. Some will seek out cash and food gifts, and most will forgo essential non-food purchases, but still experience large food consumption gaps. Acute malnutrition and mortality are expected to increase, as households’ access to food becomes increasingly limited.
Figure 1
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 2
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 3
Source: UCSB/CHC
Figure 4
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Somalia FEWS NET Analysis Note November 2025: Impacts of Dry Conditions on Food Security in Somalia, October 2025 - May 2026, 2025.
An analysis note is a FEWS NET product that provides targeted information on food security-related issues across FEWS NET geographies.