Somalia

Presence country
Somalia
 Somalia flag
Food Security Outlook
October 2023 - May 2024
Deyr flooding drives elevated needs, though rain will aid drought recovery
  • Humanitarian assistance needs remain high in Somalia, as many households continue to suffer from the impacts of the historic five-season (2020–2023) drought, particularly in central pastoral areas and settlements for internally displaced people. Additionally, in October, flooding associated with significantly above-average deyr rainfall is increasing needs in riverine and flood-affected agropastoral areas of the south. In October, most of the country is facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are assessed in central Coastal Deeh Pastoral areas and among the severely conflict-affected displaced populations in Laascaanood.
  • The October to December deyr rainy season started on time or slightly early in most of the country. The intensity of rainfall quickly increased in October, with heavy rainfall and rapidly rising river water levels causing severe flooding in southern riverine and even agropastoral livelihood zones. The flooding has caused population displacement and damage to standing crops, in addition to disrupting agricultural activities for the deyr season. 
  • In riverine and other flood-prone areas, needs are expected to remain elevated during the October to December deyr rainy season due to anticipated negative impacts of heavy rainfall and flooding. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in riverine areas during this period, and an increase in the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes is expected in urban areas and IDP settlements in riverine areas alongside an influx of IDPs from rural areas. However, despite severe disruptions to the main deyr agricultural season in flooded areas, recessional cultivation opportunities once the floods subside will provide income-earning opportunities from agricultural labor and food and income from the recessional harvest around March/April. This will improve outcomes to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
  • In the rest of the country, the deyr seasonal rains are expected to generally support crop and livestock production. As such, though main-season deyr crop production is now expected to be below-average at the national level given losses due to waterlogging and flooding in affected areas, most rural households will experience improved access to seasonal food and income during the October to December deyr season and the beginning of the 2024 gu season in April and May, leading to widespread improvement in acute food insecurity outcomes in the February to May 2024 period. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist in northern areas worst affected by prior seasons of poor crop production, central areas worst affected by the 2020 to 2023 drought, and riverine areas affected by flooding during the deyr season. Meanwhile, in IDP settlements, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will be likely given low levels of assistance and a continued influx of IDPs due to flooding and conflict.
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Latest Analysis Latest Analysis
View all Somalia Analysis
Food Security
Key Message Update Hagaa and karan rains worse than anticipated, reducing harvest prospects Somalia September 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Deyr rainfall to aid drought recovery but cause damaging flooding in some areas Somalia August 2023
Key Message Update Under half of the population in need will receive food assistance by late 2023 Somalia July 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Flooding in southern and central Somalia due to heavy deyr rainfall and high river levels Somalia November 15, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Somalia experiences an early-to-timely onset of the secondary deyr rains in October Somalia October 1, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Normal light-to-moderate rainfall in early June continues to support drought recovery across much of Somalia Somalia June 15, 2023
Markets & Trade
Supply and Market Outlook East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook East Africa November 29, 2023
Cross Border Trade Report East Africa Cross Border Trade East Africa October 2023
Price Bulletin Somalia Price Bulletin Somalia October 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Special Report Large scale, multi-sectoral assistance will likely avert Famine (IPC Phase 5), but 6.5 million people in Somalia still face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes Somalia February 28, 2023
Alert Somalia expected to avert Famine, but the risk of Famine remains credible Somalia February 28, 2023
Alert As deaths continue to accumulate despite assistance, Somalia is projected to face Famine in 2023 Somalia December 13, 2022
Food Security
Key Message Update Hagaa and karan rains worse than anticipated, reducing harvest prospects Somalia September 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Deyr rainfall to aid drought recovery but cause damaging flooding in some areas Somalia August 2023
Key Message Update Under half of the population in need will receive food assistance by late 2023 Somalia July 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Flooding in southern and central Somalia due to heavy deyr rainfall and high river levels Somalia November 15, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Somalia experiences an early-to-timely onset of the secondary deyr rains in October Somalia October 1, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Normal light-to-moderate rainfall in early June continues to support drought recovery across much of Somalia Somalia June 15, 2023
Markets & Trade
Supply and Market Outlook East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook East Africa November 29, 2023
Cross Border Trade Report East Africa Cross Border Trade East Africa October 2023
Price Bulletin Somalia Price Bulletin Somalia October 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Special Report Large scale, multi-sectoral assistance will likely avert Famine (IPC Phase 5), but 6.5 million people in Somalia still face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes Somalia February 28, 2023
Alert Somalia expected to avert Famine, but the risk of Famine remains credible Somalia February 28, 2023
Alert As deaths continue to accumulate despite assistance, Somalia is projected to face Famine in 2023 Somalia December 13, 2022
Food Security Classification Data View all Somalia classification data
Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (October 2023 - May 2024)

Current (October 2023) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (October 2023 - January 2024) and medium term (February 2024 - May 2024) periods.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile October 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification October 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: October 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: October 2023 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (August 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (August 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile August 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification August 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (July 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (July 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile July 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification July 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML)
Seasonal Calendar Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Somalia Seasonal Calendar
Production and Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Sheep, Normal Year Sesame, Normal Year Camels, Normal Year Sorghum, Normal Year Rice, Normal Year Goats, Normal Year Maize, Normal Year Cowpeas, Normal Year Cattle, Normal Year Maize, Season 1 Maize, Season 2 Sorghum, Season 1 Sorghum, Season 2
Remote Sensing Imagery Remote Sensing Imagery

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all remote sensing imagery
Livelihood Zone Resources Livelihood Zone Resources
Northwest Agro Pastoral Profile August 2011 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2009 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2011 Addun Pastoral Baseline Report June 2011 Bosasso Urban Livelihood Baseline Study, November 2011 Galkayo Urban Baseline Report, November 2011 Hawd Baseline Report August-2011 Nugal Pastoral Baseline Report September-2011 Sool Baseline Report August-2011 Togdher Agropastoral BaseLine Report April-2001 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2000-2001 Somalia Hargeisa Urban Baseline 2003 Baidoa Urban baseline analysis report 2009 Bay and Bakool baseline analysis report 2009 Somalia Typical Hunger Seasons, Month by Month Somalia Livelihood Zones Map
Somalia 2015 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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