Somalia

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Latest food security analysis

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Key messages
Key Message Update March - September 2026 Humanitarian needs peak as economic and security conditions deteriorate Download the report
  • While economic disruptions from increased conflict in the Middle East are of high concern for Somalia in the short to medium term, FEWS NET does not assess any immediate impacts on projected area-level food security outcomes. Area-level food security outcomes are already very severe; Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected in northern, central, and Juba pastoral areas through May, with pockets of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Improvements to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected by June in Juba Pastoral - Cattle and Goats Livelihood Zone. However, northern and central pastoral areas will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through September after consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, increased livestock deaths, negligible milk production, and near-record high food and water prices. As clan conflicts over scarce resources escalate and social support systems become overstretched, many poor households will likely resort to selling productive animals or even begging to mitigate their widening food consumption deficits.
  • Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with pockets of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), are expected in Bay and Bakool agropastoral areas through May following crop failures, an atypically hot and dry January-March jilaal dry season, and surging food and water prices. From June to September, only limited area-level improvements to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected despite near-average green and main harvests, as debt repayments and persistently above-average food prices weigh heavily on poor households. Herd sizes and milk availability will remain low, limiting access to saleable animals and supplemental food and income. Other agropastoral areas with better livestock migration options, greater herd sizes, or proximity to Mogadishu markets are expected to sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May and improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between June and September.
  • Most major internally displaced persons (IDP) settlements will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through September, with pockets of recently displaced IDPs facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes. Humanitarian assistance levels are extremely low and will be insufficient to improve area-level outcomes, except in Dhuusamarreeb, where Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected through May. Minimal to no humanitarian assistance is expected from June following an anticipated pipeline break in April. While food prices will likely ease from June as green harvesting begins, informal labor opportunities tend to decrease during the rainy season, worsening food access. Acute malnutrition is also expected to worsen as waterborne illnesses increase seasonally. IDPs remain a population of highest concern, especially recently displaced households, as they have extremely limited livelihood options, minimal access to social support, and are market dependent and highly exposed to price shocks.
  • Somalia faces multifaceted risks from escalating Middle East conflict due to heavy dependence on imported fuel and food and livestock exports to Gulf markets. Rising global energy prices and shipping disruptions are sharply increasing fuel and freight costs and delaying imports. Between February and March, imported diesel and rice prices in the port market of Bossaso increased by 35 and 17 percent, respectively. Larger increases are expected to have occurred or materialize soon in interior markets. Trade disruptions also threaten Somalia’s sizeable livestock exports through higher shipping costs and delays, which are undermining pastoral incomes, market liquidity, and foreign exchange ahead of the April-May peak demand period before the Hajj and Eid al-Adha. While there are reports of limited cooperation between Al-Shabaab and the Houthis, a coordinated effort to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait or launch sustained attacks on Red Sea commercial traffic is not likely at this time; impacts to Somalia are likely from the broader regional conflict.
  • Political instability continues to fuel rising conflict and insecurity, most recently in Southwest State. In recent weeks, over 50,000 people reportedly fled from Baidoa, the state’s capital. Escalating clashes between federal government forces, state forces, and al-Shabaab are severely disrupting trade and the resumption of agricultural activities in the country’s primary cereal-producing zone. Though Baidoa remains the focal point of increased instability, the consequences are widespread because the city is a key regional market and administrative hub. Roadblocks, extortion and illegal taxation, and suspended flights are constraining market supply, raising transport costs, reducing access to agricultural and pastoral lands, and impeding humanitarian access across Bay and Bakool regions.
  • In March, dry conditions persisted across most of the country, but light to moderate rainfall (10-50 mm) was recorded during the middle of the month, a sign of the approaching April to June gu rains. Some farmers began dry planting cereals in late March, providing a slight boost in labor opportunities. Though this amount of rain is insufficient for seed germination or pasture regeneration, the gu rains typically do not become established until at least mid to late April. International forecasts indicate that the gu rains are expected to be average to above-average, though close monitoring will be required given that rains in the Horn of Africa are historically volatile. Harvests are still expected to be near average; recent increases in global fertilizer prices are not likely to meaningfully impact the upcoming season, as the few households who purchase synthetic fertilizers likely did so before the price spike. 
 Read the full analysis
More analysis reports View all Somalia food security analysis reports Monthly analysis
Food Security Outlook Somalia February - September 2026
Key Message Update Somalia January 2026
Food Security Outlook Update Somalia December 2025 - May 2026
Alerts / special reports
Alert East Africa December 23, 2025
Alert East Africa December 16, 2025
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Monthly analysis
Food Security Outlook Somalia February - September 2026
Key Message Update Somalia January 2026
Food Security Outlook Update Somalia December 2025 - May 2026
Alerts / special reports
Alert East Africa December 23, 2025
Alert East Africa December 16, 2025
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Explore food security analysis data

The FEWS NET Data Explorer hosts the widest range of FEWS NET data for download or extract via API. The Data Explorer requires a free user account for access.
FEWS NET–style food security map of East Africa showing crisis severity by color, with conflict icons and alerts across Somalia, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya.
Acute Food Insecurity Area-Level Classifications

FEWS NET produces IPC-compatible area-level acute food insecurity classifications monthly for FEWS NET reporting countries. This data is available as spatial files, tabular files, and map images. It is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our Food Security Outlooks and Outlook Updates (FSO/U) and Key Message Updates (KMU).

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Map of East Africa with large colored circles over Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and South Sudan indicating comparative regional metrics; capitals labeled.
Acutely Food Insecure Population Estimates

These estimates reflect the total population estimated to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes, including those who are receiving humanitarian food assistance and those who are not. This tabular data is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our FSOs, global Food Assistance Outlook Briefs (FAOB), and semi-annual global Peak Food Assistance Needs Outlook Briefs.

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Markets and trade resources

Access FEWS NET’s market price data and analysis, plus trade flow maps.

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Monthly Global Price Watch reports

This report provides the latest outlook on global, regional, and national market trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET reporting countries and also analyzes the various drivers influencing these trends.

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Production and Trade Flow Maps

These maps display the geography of market systems and trade flow patterns for key products, including their key market towns and cross-border trade points.

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Price data

Price data is available for a large number of countries and products around the world. This data can be used to track the change in price of commodities, food staples, agricultural inputs, and other products over time and is a key input to FEWS NET food security analysis and Global Price Watch reports.

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Agroclimatology resources

Access FEWS NET’s remote sensing data and analysis of weather conditions.

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Weekly Global Weather Hazards reports

This report provides a global outlook on anticipated severe weather events, including maps with current weather information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to one week), and the potential impact on crop and pasture conditions.

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Seasonal Monitor reports

This report provides regional updates on weather events, rainfall patterns, and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, water availability) during a given geography’s rainy season, along with a short-term rainfall forecast.

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Agroclimatology data

FEWS NET and its partners offer a range of online tools that share insights on rainfall, temperature, vegetation, soil moisture, and surface water conditions derived from remote sensing data collection and modeling.

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Livelihoods resources

Access FEWS NET’s maps, reports, and data on local livelihood systems.

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Somalia 2015 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
Livelihood Baselines

Baselines provide quantitative analysis of household livelihood options. It includes a detailed breakdown of food, cash, and expenditure patterns. The Baseline also highlights market patterns, seasonality, and coping strategies. 

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Livelihood Zone maps

Zone Maps illustrate the country by zone, showing areas where people generally have the same options for obtaining food and income and engaging in trade.

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Seasonal Calendar

These calendars illustrate the monthly availability of key food and income sources, plus the starts and ends to key rainy and lean seasons. They supplement livelihoods resources and are integral to FEWS NET’s food security analysis.

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Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Somalia
Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Somalia
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