Somalia

Local presence country
Somalia
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Key Message Update
July 2023
Under half of the population in need will receive food assistance by late 2023
  • In July, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes remain widespread as poor households across the country struggle to recover from the 2020-2023 drought. However, the beginning of gu harvesting is improving access to food and income and reducing the number of poor households facing food consumption gaps, with some agropastoral areas expected to see improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in August. In both agropastoral and pastoral areas, further improvement is expected during and after the October to December deyr rains, which are forecasted to be above average and will facilitate net gains in crop and livestock production. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist among displaced populations and in central coastal areas where the drought impacts were severe and the 2023 gu season performed poorly. Additionally, more displacement settlements will likely see deterioration to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) amid an anticipated scale-down in humanitarian assistance. Finally, flooding in riverine and low-lying cropping zones during the deyr season is likely to lead to crop losses, suspension of cropping activities, and rising local cereal prices, sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes.
  • Alongside the cessation of gu rainfall, river station gauge data from FAO SWALIM indicate that Juba and Shabelle river levels have receded to the long-term mean in June and July. Following the decline in river water levels, recessional cultivation started in June in riverine areas in Hiiraan, Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle and localized areas in Bardhere of Gedo. However, air bombardments in Buale and Jilib riverine areas of Middle Juba continued in June and July, forcing farmers to flee for their safety and allowing animals to attack the crop. While households in riverine areas await the off-season harvest in September, they are earning some income from harvesting activities in rainfed agropastoral areas. Additionally, harvests from agropastoral areas have replenished market stocks and reduced prices in many riverine areas in July. 
  • The July to September hagaa dry season commenced with generally normal dry conditions across most of the country in July. However, conditions are drier-than-normal in much of the coastal and adjacent inland southern areas that receive seasonal hagaa (July-August) showers, according to field reports and data from CHIRPS. Additionally, temperatures were above normal in northern coastal areas and in much of the south, with monthly average temperatures of up to 7 degrees Celsius above normal recorded in southern coastal areas. By the last dekad of July, vegetation conditions as measured by the Normalized-Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were below average across most of the southern and central regions of the country, and significantly below average in southern coastal areas. In contrast to earlier forecasts, the July to September hagaa showers in southern Somalia are now expected to be average to below average overall, though with average to above-average rainfall amounts likely in September. This will reduce support to long-cycle and recessional crops.
  • In July, gu harvesting is ongoing in most of the country. In south-central areas, nearly a third of main season crop production was lost due to river flooding in Gedo, Hiraan, Middle Juba, and Middle Shabelle regions and severe moisture stress in rainfed agropastoral areas of Hiiraan and central Somalia. However, gu crop production in the south-central regions was still slightly better than the five-year average (which includes several poor production seasons) and significantly better than production in gu 2022. Additionally, some riverine areas will benefit from a favorable flood-recession harvest in September, though above-average rainfall in September could reduce harvest prospects, depending on the timing and intensity of rainfall. Meanwhile, northwestern agropastoral areas experienced a prolonged dry spell during the gu season, followed by poor karan rainfall in the July-August period. As such, production of yellow maize is estimated at nearly one-third of the 2010-2022 average. The standing long-cycle sorghum crop also experienced severe moisture stress and most crops are wilted, with poor karan crop production likely in November. 
  • Following some improvement in birth rates and associated milk production among small ruminants during the 2023 gu season, lactating small animals have stopped producing milk in July, as is typical for the time of year. Additionally, though cattle and camel typically lactate and provide milk at this time of year, milk production from large ruminants remains below average and highly limited in most areas due to poor birth rates following the effects of the drought on conceptions in previous seasons. In July, birth rates of camel and cattle were none to low across most of the country; however, the southern regions experienced slightly better low to medium birth rates. As a result, poor households in most drought-affected areas are facing seasonally low and below-average levels of milk production, which is limiting access to food and income, especially in northern and central pastoral areas. While milk production is expected to improve during the deyr season alongside medium to high birth rates of small ruminants and low to medium birth rates of camel and cattle, access to milk will likely remain below average due to below-average herd sizes (except in some southern areas) and reduced birth rates among camels.
  • Staple cereal prices have largely remained stable or declined in July alongside the start of gu harvesting. In the Baidoa reference market for sorghum-producing areas, red sorghum grain prices averaged 8,000 SOS/kg in July, similar to last month, 15 percent less than the five-year average, and 59 percent less than last year. In the Qorioley reference market for maize-producing areas, white maize grain prices averaged 9,500 SOS/kg in July, similar to last month and the five-year average but 51 percent lower than the same time last year. According to data collected by FSNAU, on average across monitored markets, purchasing power for laborers improved slightly from June to July by an average of 5.7 percent, driven by overall declining staple cereal prices across markets despite a four percent decline in labor wage rates.
  • The Somalia Food Security Cluster (FSC) reports that 3.3 million people were reached with emergency humanitarian food assistance in July 2023. This is similar to the 3.2 million reached in June, following a gradual scale-down since more than 6 million were reached in September 2022. Each assistance distribution – mostly in the form of cash transfers – is reportedly providing households with the equivalent of approximately 80 percent of their minimum energy requirements. According to plans recently shared by the FSC, however, a further scale-down in assistance levels is planned for the coming months, with only around 2 million people likely to be reached with monthly assistance by the October to December 2023 period. This is similar to the number reached prior to the drought, and represents less than half of the estimated population in need of food assistance.
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Latest Analysis Latest Analysis
View all Somalia Analysis
Food Security
Food Security Outlook Food assistance needs remain high amid ongoing recovery from drought Somalia June 2023 - January 2024
Key Message Update Emergency outcomes are expected in some drought- and flood-affected areas Somalia May 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Many households face difficult road to recovery despite good gu rains Somalia April 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Normal light-to-moderate rainfall in early June continues to support drought recovery across much of Somalia Somalia June 15, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Limited rainfall prevails across Somalia in mid-May after mixed performance between early April and early May Somalia May 31, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Promising start to April-June gu seasonal rains, although limited precipitation in central and northeastern areas Somalia April 26, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Somalia Price Bulletin Somalia August 2023
Price Bulletin Somalia Livestock Price Bulletin Somalia August 2023
Price Bulletin Somalia Price Bulletin Somalia July 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Special Report Large scale, multi-sectoral assistance will likely avert Famine (IPC Phase 5), but 6.5 million people in Somalia still face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes Somalia February 28, 2023
Alert Somalia expected to avert Famine, but the risk of Famine remains credible Somalia February 28, 2023
Alert As deaths continue to accumulate despite assistance, Somalia is projected to face Famine in 2023 Somalia December 13, 2022
Food Security
Food Security Outlook Food assistance needs remain high amid ongoing recovery from drought Somalia June 2023 - January 2024
Key Message Update Emergency outcomes are expected in some drought- and flood-affected areas Somalia May 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Many households face difficult road to recovery despite good gu rains Somalia April 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Normal light-to-moderate rainfall in early June continues to support drought recovery across much of Somalia Somalia June 15, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Limited rainfall prevails across Somalia in mid-May after mixed performance between early April and early May Somalia May 31, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Promising start to April-June gu seasonal rains, although limited precipitation in central and northeastern areas Somalia April 26, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Somalia Price Bulletin Somalia August 2023
Price Bulletin Somalia Livestock Price Bulletin Somalia August 2023
Price Bulletin Somalia Price Bulletin Somalia July 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Special Report Large scale, multi-sectoral assistance will likely avert Famine (IPC Phase 5), but 6.5 million people in Somalia still face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes Somalia February 28, 2023
Alert Somalia expected to avert Famine, but the risk of Famine remains credible Somalia February 28, 2023
Alert As deaths continue to accumulate despite assistance, Somalia is projected to face Famine in 2023 Somalia December 13, 2022
Food Security Classification Data View all Somalia classification data
Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (July 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (July 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile July 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification July 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (May 2023 - September 2023)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (May 2023) and medium term (June 2023 - September 2023) periods.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile May 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification May 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: May 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: May 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (June 2023 - January 2024)

Current (June 2023) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (June 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile June 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification June 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: June 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: June 2023 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML)
Seasonal Calendar Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Somalia Seasonal Calendar
Production and Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Sheep, Normal Year Sesame, Normal Year Camels, Normal Year Sorghum, Normal Year Rice, Normal Year Goats, Normal Year Maize, Normal Year Cowpeas, Normal Year Cattle, Normal Year Maize, Season 1 Maize, Season 2 Sorghum, Season 1 Sorghum, Season 2
Remote Sensing Imagery Remote Sensing Imagery

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all remote sensing imagery
Livelihood Zone Resources Livelihood Zone Resources
Northwest Agro Pastoral Profile August 2011 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2009 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2011 Addun Pastoral Baseline Report June 2011 Bosasso Urban Livelihood Baseline Study, November 2011 Galkayo Urban Baseline Report, November 2011 Hawd Baseline Report August-2011 Nugal Pastoral Baseline Report September-2011 Sool Baseline Report August-2011 Togdher Agropastoral BaseLine Report April-2001 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2000-2001 Somalia Hargeisa Urban Baseline 2003 Baidoa Urban baseline analysis report 2009 Bay and Bakool baseline analysis report 2009 Somalia Typical Hunger Seasons, Month by Month Somalia Livelihood Zones Map
Somalia 2015 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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