Somalia

• Following the failed 2025 deyr rains and a stalled recovery from the historic 2020-2023 drought, FEWS NET now assesses that area-level Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will emerge in January 2026 across parts of southern and northwestern agropastoral and much of northern and central pastoral areas. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in areas less affected by prior weather and conflict shocks or where households have marginally higher asset baselines. The deyr harvest has failed, and pasture and water resources are very low heading into the January-March jilaal dry season. Crop failure, livestock mortality, and negligible milk availability will severely restrict access to food and income. Rapidly increasing food and water prices and worsening resource-based clan conflicts will also exacerbate food access challenges. Increased internally displaced persons (IDPs) flows are expected as households migrate to IDP camps and urban centers.
• Between February and May, a higher share of the population is expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Amid overstretched social support networks, some of the worst-affected poor households will likely face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), and acute malnutrition levels will rise. With little to no income from agricultural or pastoral activities, many poor households will likely resort to migrating to IDP camps, begging, or slaughtering remaining animals. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in many IDP settlements as drought-related displacement rises and competition for scarce resources intensifies. Other settlements will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), particularly those closer to urban employment opportunities or where IDPs are relatively integrated.
• Increased confidence in a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2026 is strengthening forecasts of average April-June gu rainfall. However, an alternative scenario of moderately below-average rainfall (10-25 percent deficits) remains credible. Under this alternative scenario, area-level outcomes would remain the same, but the share of the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worse outcomes would increase. It is currently assessed that significantly below-average rainfall has a low likelihood of occurring; if such a scenario were to materialize, it would prompt an assessment of the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5), with high concern for outcomes between June and September.

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and the November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 23, 2025.