Somalia

Presence Country
March 2022

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

March - May 2022

June - September 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
Key Messages
  • The inter-agency IPC Acute Food Insecurity Update (conducted by experts across multiple organizations, including FEWS NET) concluded that six million people in Somalia need food assistance to prevent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes from April to June. The severity of food insecurity in Somalia continued to worsen in March, driven by intensifying drought at the peak of the jilaal dry season, elevated levels of conflict and insecurity in southern and central Somalia, and escalating staple food, water, and fuel prices. Domestic cereal shortages, the adverse impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on imported food prices, and rising food transport costs due to high global oil prices are making it increasingly difficult for both rural and urban households to purchase food. Furthermore, weekly forecasts indicate the start of the gu rains will be delayed to mid-April, and seasonal forecasts are increasingly converging to below-average seasonal rainfall from April to June.

  • Addun Pastoral and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones, southern agropastoral areas, and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone remain among the areas of highest concern, classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The revised outlook also includes the deterioration of Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone, most of Sorghum High Potential livelihood zone, and 11 IDP settlements to Emergency (IPC Phase 4), which is associated with large food consumption gaps, severe coping strategies such as displacement and begging, and high levels of acute malnutrition and mortality. An estimated 75,000-100,000 people will likely have extreme food consumption gaps consistent with Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in central pastoral areas of Somalia, agropastoral areas in Bay and Bakool regions, and several IDP settlements that are receiving large numbers of households displaced from these areas, including Mogadishu, Baidoa in Bay Region, and Dhusamareb in Galgaduud Region.

  • The large increase in the population in need not only reflects deteriorating food insecurity among rural and displaced households, but also the impact of worsening price shocks in urban areas. Poor urban households have limited opportunities to increase their income, face increased competition for labor due to the influx of displaced or migrant rural households, and share shrinking access to social support systems due to the level of widespread need. In addition, a large fire in Hargeisa in early April destroyed most of the marketplace that provided the main livelihood for hundreds of thousands of people. Local officials estimate the fire caused 1.5-2.0 billion USD in damage, affecting 40-50 percent of the city’s economy.

  • In addition to the conclusions of the IPC Update, FEWS NET now assesses that food assistance needs will likely remain in the range of 5-6 million people between June and September. The below-average gu rains will most likely result in a fourth consecutive poor harvest in July and further livestock losses during the July to September hagaa dry season, prolonging the impacts of drought and further eroding household coping capacity. Although the number of people that received humanitarian food assistance increased from 1.25 million in January to 2.01 million in February, significant funding shortfalls are expected to limit food assistance distributions in the coming months.

  • Pastoral households continue to report excess livestock deaths across species and spontaneous sheep and goat abortions due to poor livestock body conditions, especially in northern and central Somalia and in Bakool, Gedo, and parts of Hiiraan regions. Although low levels of kidding and lambing are underway, the current poor state of livestock body conditions means milk productivity levels are far below normal. If the gu rains are further delayed or perform very poorly, more livestock deaths are expected, and many households will cull new offspring in order to save the lives of productive females. Overall, household livestock holdings are rapidly declining, and some households in the livelihood zones classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) have already lost a majority of their livestock, rendering their livelihood unsustainable.

  • In agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones, households do not have any own-produced cereal stocks left from the January harvest and must purchase nearly all of their food from the market. In addition to poor livestock production conditions, farming households face reductions in income due to low labor demand and falling labor wage rates. In riverine areas in the South, the drying of the Juba and Shabelle rivers has suspended irrigation activities and most cash crop farming, though some households will earn a little income from the recessional sesame off-season harvest, which is currently ongoing.

  • Acute water shortages are contributing to rising disease incidence, such as acute water diarrhea. Combined with low food intake, these factors are driving a rapid increase in the number of acutely malnourished children being admitted to treatment centers, with two to four-fold increases reported in some districts. Communal dams, shallow wells, and private berkeds are dry across most of southern and central Somalia, with only a few operational boreholes and water trucks providing water for purchase. Some households in southern riverine areas have dug up the dry riverbeds to collect water. With water prices in northern and central rural markets reaching more than twice the five-year average, most poor households can only purchase water on credit, further increasing their debt burdens.

  • While it is not the most likely scenario, FEWS NET and partners assess that Somalia faces a Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5)[1]. In an alternative scenario in which the gu rains are delayed beyond mid-April and/or cumulative rainfall totals are significantly below average, and if humanitarian food assistance fails to reach populations in need, the resulting failure of crop and livestock production would most likely lead to an increase in the population facing extreme food consumption gaps, with an associated increase in levels of displacement, acute malnutrition, and mortality. Substantial, further hikes in food prices related to global supply and price shocks, along with the potential for rising conflict and insecurity due to delayed elections, are other factors that could interact with below-average rainfall to exacerbate the severity of acute food insecurity.

     

    [1] The IPC classifies acute food insecurity at the household level and area level. At the household level, Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) occurs when a household group has an extreme lack of food and/or other basic needs even after full employment of coping strategies. At the area level, Famine (IPC Phase 5) occurs when at least 20 percent of the households in a given area have an extreme lack of food; the Global Acute Malnutrition prevalence, as measured by weight-for-height z-score, exceeds 30 percent; and mortality, as measured by the Crude Death Rate (CDR), is greater than 2 per 10,000 per day.

Food Security

Somalia Food Security Classification (March 2022 - September 2022)

Near term (March 2022 - May 2022) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for medium term (June 2022 - September 2022) periods.

Downloads

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics