Somalia

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Key Message Update January 2026 Atypically harsh jilaal dry season begins following failed deyr rains Download the report
  • Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected through May 2026 following a failed deyr season. As the January to March jilaal dry season progresses, a high and increasing proportion of the population will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, as food and water prices, livestock mortality, and resource-based clan conflicts sharply increase. A small proportion of poor households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are expected given exhausted coping capacities and overburdened social support networks. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are also expected in major IDP settlements due to heightened drought-related displacements and competition for scarce resources. The arrival of the gu rains between April and May, forecasted to be average, will marginally improve agricultural labor incomes and stabilize livestock body conditions. However, the share of the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse will not meaningfully decrease until May.
  • FEWS NET is now projecting Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through May 2026 in the Juba Pastoral – Cattle and Goats Livelihood Zone (Lower and Middle Juba regions). New information from key informants indicates livestock conditions and pasture and water availability are significantly worse than previously understood. Water points are increasingly congested and overstretched, with reports of weakened animals who are unable to stand on their own and cattle deaths from starvation and insufficient water access. Households are facing rising livestock losses, little to no milk availability, and rapidly deteriorating terms of trade. Ongoing rangeland resource depletion is expected to increase trekking of already weakened animals in search of water and pasture, leading to increased livestock deaths. No meaningful improvement in food security outcomes is expected by May due to the slow recovery of rangeland resources and extremely few anticipated livestock births.
  • The April to June gu rains are expected to be average and begin on time. However, current forecasts are uncertain and point to equal chances of above-average, average, and below-average rainfall. Close monitoring of the weather forecast will be required as rains in the Horn of Africa are historically highly volatile. Though significantly below-average gu rainfall is unlikely, should this scenario materialize, it would prompt an assessment of the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5), with high concern for outcomes between June and September 2026.
  • An atypically hot and dry jilaal season is underway; pasture and water resources are extremely limited and rapidly deteriorating amid above-average temperatures. Trucked water prices have increased nationwide, with the sharpest rise in drought‑affected southern areas. In Bay Region, water prices reached 53,400 SOS (~93 USD) per 200-liter drum, 28 percent above December 2024 and 63 percent above the five‑year average. With no water‑point replenishment expected until the gu rains arrive, pressure on pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods is expected to intensify as the jilaal season progresses and temperatures rise.
  • Above-average imported and local cereal prices remain a major constraint on limited household purchasing power. Imported staple food prices are generally stable due to ample global supply and lower fuel prices; however, prices remain well above long-term averages. Notably, in Somaliland, sustained depreciation of the SLSH is pushing up prices for rice, wheat flour, and sugar despite favorable global supply conditions. At the same time, in southern Somalia, locally produced cereal prices remain significantly above average following failed or poor deyr production. For example, maize and red sorghum prices in Baidoa remain 20 and 44 percent above last year’s average. Domestic cereal prices are expected to remain above average and continue increasing until the gu harvest arrives in July, severely constraining household food access.
  • Despite increased needs following the failed 2025 deyr season, humanitarian food assistance in Somalia is set to sharply decline in early to mid-2026 due to major funding shortfalls, both in terms of total beneficiaries and ration sizes. In 2025, an average of 844,374 people received assistance each month. According to information FEWS NET received from the Food Security Cluster (FSC), 734,286 people were reached with humanitarian food and cash assistance in January 2026. From February to March, an average of 594,716 people per month will be targeted for food assistance distributions, though it is worth noting that assistance deliveries will fall by nearly half in March. Assistance is projected to fall by nearly 80 percent to an average of 127,979 people between April and June, raising concerns for poor and recently displaced households who are already facing large food consumption gaps. Though FEWS NET was unable to obtain access to information on ration sizes, ration sizes in 2026 will likely be reduced relative to recent years.  
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Food Security Classification data View all Somalia Food Security Classification data
Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (December 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile December 2025 (.zip) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification December 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (November 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile November 2025 (.zip) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification November 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Current (October 2025) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (October 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile October 2025 (.zip) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification October 2025 (.geojson) Current Situation: October 2025 (.png) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Current Situation: October 2025 (.kml) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml)
Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Somalia
Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Somalia
Production and Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Sheep, Normal Year Sesame, Normal Year Camels, Normal Year Sorghum, Normal Year Rice, Normal Year Goats, Normal Year Maize, Normal Year Cowpeas, Normal Year Cattle, Normal Year Maize, Season 1 Maize, Season 2 Sorghum, Season 1 Sorghum, Season 2
Satellite-derived products map

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all satellite-derived products
Livelihood Zone resources Northwest Agro Pastoral Profile August 2011 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2009 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2011 Addun Pastoral Baseline Report June 2011 Bosasso Urban Livelihood Baseline Study, November 2011 Galkayo Urban Baseline Report, November 2011 Hawd Baseline Report August-2011 Nugal Pastoral Baseline Report September-2011 Sool Baseline Report August-2011 Togdher Agropastoral BaseLine Report April-2001 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2000-2001 Somalia Hargeisa Urban Baseline 2003 Baidoa Urban baseline analysis report 2009 Bay and Bakool baseline analysis report 2009 Somalia Typical Hunger Seasons, Month by Month Somalia Livelihood Zones Map
Somalia 2015 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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