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Latest food security analysis

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Key messages
Food Security Outlook June 2026 - January 2027 Multiple areas across the south face a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) if flooding is extreme Download report Read full report
  • Food assistance needs are expected to be extremely high through January 2027, with monthly estimates peaking at 6.0-6.99 million people in late 2026. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in highly crop-dependent areas of Bay, Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan; multiple riverine areas in the south; multiple northern and central pastoral areas; and 12 major settlements of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Some households likely face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected where the impacts of weather and insecurity are less severe. Consecutive poor harvests, low livestock productivity, worsening insecurity, and historically high food prices will severely constrain food access. 
  • The key driver of acute food insecurity is shifting from drought during the April-June 2026 gu season to flooding during the October-December 2026 deyr season. FEWS NET previously warned of a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Bay, Bakool, and Gedo agropastoral areas in June-September if poor gu rains caused localized crop failure amid very high acute malnutrition levels. This scenario did not materialize: while the July/August harvest is well below average, cereal stocks will mitigate the severity of area-level outcomes in the near term. However, a strengthening El Niño and an anticipated strong Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to drive above‑average deyr rainfall and flooding, resulting in crop, livestock, and other asset losses, disrupted market supply flows, and water‑borne disease, thereby shifting the period of greatest concern to late 2026.
  • FEWS NET assesses a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Bay, Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan agropastoral areas; all riverine areas (except in Lower Shabelle); and Baidoa, Jowhar, Beletweyne, and Dolow IDP settlements; between October and January in the event of extreme, widespread flooding. Under the most likely scenario, flooding is expected to be relatively concentrated in flood-prone areas, similar to 2023. However, if flooding is comparable in severity and geographic extent to historic flood years like 1997 and 2019, then extensive agricultural losses and isolation of communities from markets and lifesaving services would likely lead to Famine (IPC Phase 5), particularly given already high levels of acute malnutrition. 
More analysis reports View all Somalia food security analysis reports
Monthly analysis
Key Message Update Somalia May - September 2026
Food Security Outlook Update Somalia April - September 2026
Key Message Update Somalia March - September 2026
Alerts / special reports
Alert Somalia May 14, 2026
Alert East Africa December 23, 2025
Alert East Africa December 16, 2025
Monthly analysis
Key Message Update Somalia May - September 2026
Food Security Outlook Update Somalia April - September 2026
Key Message Update Somalia March - September 2026
Alerts / special reports
Alert Somalia May 14, 2026
Alert East Africa December 23, 2025
Alert East Africa December 16, 2025
Explore food security analysis data
Description

The FEWS NET Data Explorer hosts the widest range of FEWS NET data for download or extract via API. The Data Explorer requires a free user account for access.

FEWS NET–style food security map of East Africa showing crisis severity by color, with conflict icons and alerts across Somalia, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya.
Acute Food Insecurity Area-Level Classifications

FEWS NET produces IPC-compatible area-level acute food insecurity classifications monthly for FEWS NET reporting countries. This data is available as spatial files, tabular files, and map images. It is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our Food Security Outlooks and Outlook Updates (FSO/U) and Key Message Updates (KMU).

View files (spatial and image) Go to Data Explorer
Map of East Africa with large colored circles over Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and South Sudan indicating comparative regional metrics; capitals labeled.
Acutely Food Insecure Population Estimates

These estimates reflect the total population estimated to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes, including those who are receiving humanitarian food assistance and those who are not. This tabular data is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our FSOs, global Food Assistance Outlook Briefs (FAOB), and semi-annual global Peak Food Assistance Needs Outlook Briefs.

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Markets and trade resources
Description

Access FEWS NET’s market price data and analysis, plus trade flow maps.

Learn more about markets and trade
Monthly Global Price Watch reports

This report provides the latest outlook on global, regional, and national market trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET reporting countries and also analyzes the various drivers influencing these trends.

View Global Price Watch reports
Production and Trade Flow Maps

These maps display the geography of market systems and trade flow patterns for key products, including their key market towns and cross-border trade points.

View Somalia Production and Trade Flow Maps
Price data

Price data is available for a large number of countries and products around the world. This data can be used to track the change in price of commodities, food staples, agricultural inputs, and other products over time and is a key input to FEWS NET food security analysis and Global Price Watch reports.

View files (FEWS NET data only) Go to Data Explorer (all sources)
Agroclimatology resources
Description

Access FEWS NET’s remote sensing data and analysis of weather conditions.

Learn more about agroclimatology
Weekly Global Weather Hazards reports

This report provides a global outlook on anticipated severe weather events, including maps with current weather information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to one week), and the potential impact on crop and pasture conditions.

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Seasonal Monitor reports

This report provides regional updates on weather events, rainfall patterns, and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, water availability) during a given geography’s rainy season, along with a short-term rainfall forecast.

View East Africa Seasonal Monitor reports
Agroclimatology data

FEWS NET and its partners offer a range of online tools that share insights on rainfall, temperature, vegetation, soil moisture, and surface water conditions derived from remote sensing data collection and modeling.

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Livelihoods resources
Description

Access FEWS NET’s maps, reports, and data on local livelihood systems.

Learn more about livelihoods
Somalia 2015 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
Livelihood Baselines

Baselines provide quantitative analysis of household livelihood options. It includes a detailed breakdown of food, cash, and expenditure patterns. The Baseline also highlights market patterns, seasonality, and coping strategies. 

View all Somalia Livelihood Baselines
Livelihood Zone maps

Zone Maps illustrate the country by zone, showing areas where people generally have the same options for obtaining food and income and engaging in trade.

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Seasonal Calendar
Description

These calendars illustrate the monthly availability of key food and income sources, plus the starts and ends to key rainy and lean seasons. They supplement livelihoods resources and are integral to FEWS NET’s food security analysis.

View and download the Somalia Seasonal Calendar
Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Somalia
Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Somalia
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