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Somalia

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Somalia
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Key Message Update
May 2024
Flooding disrupts gu crop production; delayed harvests anticipated in the south
  • In April, above-average April to June gu rains have replenished pastures and supported the normal onset of gu cropping activities in most areas, continuing recovery from the 2020 to 2023 drought. However, heavy rains in the south have triggered riverine and flash flooding, compounding the impacts of the severe 2023 deyr floods and sustaining high food assistance needs. In March 2024, the Somalia Food Security Cluster (FSC) reported that approximately 2.3 million individuals received food assistance – a 5 to 10 percent decrease from February. The population reached in March is only 50 to 55 percent of the total population that FEWS NET assesses to need food assistance to avert food consumption gaps and safeguard livelihoods. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are widespread across Somalia; however, over 4 million people continue to face eroded livelihoods, high debt loads, severely depleted assets, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes in the worst drought and flood-affected livelihood zones in the south, central, and northwest regions and most settlements hosting internally displaced people (IDPs). In the flood-affected riverine areas of Gedo Region and some IDP settlements, households have extremely limited access to food and income, and food needs outpace the delivery of food assistance due to insufficient funding and poor humanitarian access, sustaining Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through May. 
  • The gu rains generally began early or on time in most parts of Somalia, with cumulative rainfall reaching 125 to 200 percent of the long-term average (1981-2010) in most southern, central, and northwest regions in April, according to preliminary CHIRPS data. In the northeast, however, delayed and below-average rains have stunted typical seasonal pasture replenishment. Extremely heavy rainfall in southern Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands has elevated river water levels and caused severe flash and riverine flooding in several riverine and agropastoral lowland areas in April. The most severely affected areas are Jowhar and Balcad districts of Middle Shabelle Region and parts of Hiiraan, Bay, and Lower Juba regions. The floods have reportedly affected nearly 125,000 people, resulting in population displacement, damaged shelters, inundation of agricultural fields, and destroyed irrigation and road infrastructure. Silted riverbeds, weak river embankments, and open breakages – amid atypically heavy rainfall – are driving a moderate to high risk of flooding through the rest of the gu rainy season. 
  • Favorable rains in most agropastoral areas are supporting healthy seed germination and normal agricultural labor opportunities. With the seasonal increase in agricultural labor demand, wage rates have increased by up to 28 percent between March and April 2024, and generally remain higher than last year and the five-year average. Forecasted above-average gu rains are likely to improve crop production prospects in agropastoral areas, particularly in the south. However, in flood-affected riverine areas of Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan, the flooding has delayed or suspended typical gu season cropping activities, limiting agricultural labor opportunities, decreasing wage rates by roughly 10 percent in April month-on-month, and damaging the recently planted gu crops and remaining standing deyr off-season crops. Residual water logging from the 2023 deyr floods is also expected to contribute to the delayed harvests. Riverine gu harvests are expected to be two to four weeks late.
  • In most pastoral areas, livestock body conditions and productivity are improving due to pasture and water resource regeneration associated with the gu rains, increasing market demand as pastoralists restock their herds. As a result, livestock prices have seasonally increased in April compared to March and are higher than last year and the five-year average in most areas. In the north and central regions, livestock prices increased by up to 14 percent month-on-month in April and were 10 to 40 percent above the five-year average; however, livestock births and camel milk availability have been delayed due to the lasting drought impacts. While milk prices are lower than last year, they remain higher than the five-year average due to low and delayed camel birthing, which is now expected to peak in June/July. Most pastoral areas are expected to sustain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to anticipated increases in livestock herd sizes, value, and milk production through September. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist in the Coastal Deeh and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones of the central region, where livestock holdings remain significantly below baseline levels and livestock productivity and reproductivity have not recovered following the 2020 to 2023 drought.
  • According to FEWS NET/FSNAU market monitoring data, maize prices in the south were 20 percent higher in March than the five-year average due to the poor deyr harvests and the lasting impacts of the deyr floods, including damaged road infrastructure and disruptions to marketing activities, especially in the Shabelle and Juba regions. High maize prices are suppressing household purchasing power, limiting financial access to food. In March, a day’s labor purchased around 7 to 8 kilograms of maize, 10 to 12 percent less than the five-year average. In central and northern regions, maize and sorghum prices were stable but above average due to limited supply from the south, poor 2023 karan production in the northwest, and reduced imports from Ethiopia due to conflict-related supply route disruptions. In the northwest, sorghum prices are 22 to 63 percent higher in March than last year and the five-year average. However, in areas of the sorghum belt unaffected by floods (parts of Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, and Lower Shabelle regions), average to above-average off-season deyr sorghum harvests in March supported improved household access to food and income, decreasing household market dependence and sorghum prices.
  • In the south and central regions, insurgents increased the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in urban settlements and on trade routes connecting rural markets to regional capitals in the last month, limiting access to food and income for households in the worst-affected areas. This escalation has disrupted gu season cultivation activities, trade, and population movement, and led to significant loss of life and property. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Events Data (ACLED) Conflict Situation Update for March 23 to April 19, 2024, the number of political violence incidents (205 incidents) was stable compared to the previous month, however, the incidents during this period resulted in nearly 15 percent more fatalities (539 fatalities). This coincides with a decrease in government counter-insurgency operations, increasing the risk of the militants reclaiming previously lost territories and increasing the risk of civilian targeting. In the worst-affected areas of central Somalia, Hiiraan, and Shabelle regions, the spreading insecurity has prevented some farmers from accessing farmland, as well as limited market supply in some areas where poor households are increasingly purchase-reliant for food as deyr harvests begin to exhaust.
  • IDPs in southern and central regions and Laascaanod (Sool Region) continue to have limited access to income from agricultural and other unskilled labor opportunities due to high competition for limited income-generating opportunities. Local and imported food prices remain above average, resulting in poor households having limited purchasing capacity and minimal financial access to food. However, IDP households have depleted coping capacity and minimal assets, resulting in high reliance on humanitarian assistance. In Baydhaba, Xudur, Gaalkacyo, and Laascaanood IDP settlements, limited access to income amid reduced or insufficient humanitarian food assistance continues to drive Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through at least May 2024.
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Food Security
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Price Bulletin Somalia Livestock Price Bulletin Somalia April 2024
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Food Security Classification Data View all Somalia classification data
Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (April 2024 - September 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (April 2024 - May 2024) and medium term (June 2024 - September 2024) periods.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile April 2024 (.zip) (ZIP) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification April 2024 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: April 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: April 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.kml) (KML)
Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (March 2024 - September 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (March 2024 - May 2024) and medium term (June 2024 - September 2024) periods.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile March 2024 (.zip) (ZIP) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification March 2024 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: March 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: March 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.kml) (KML)
Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (February 2024 - September 2024)

Current (February 2024) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (February 2024 - May 2024) and medium term (June 2024 - September 2024) periods.

Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile February 2024 (.zip) (ZIP) Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Classification February 2024 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: February 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: February 2024 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.kml) (KML)
Seasonal Calendar Seasonal Calendar
Description

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.

Somalia Seasonal Calendar
Production and Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Sheep, Normal Year Sesame, Normal Year Camels, Normal Year Sorghum, Normal Year Rice, Normal Year Goats, Normal Year Maize, Normal Year Cowpeas, Normal Year Cattle, Normal Year Maize, Season 1 Maize, Season 2 Sorghum, Season 1 Sorghum, Season 2
Satellite-Derived Products Satellite-Derived Products
Description

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all Satellite-Derived Products
Livelihood Zone Resources Livelihood Zone Resources
Northwest Agro Pastoral Profile August 2011 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2009 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2011 Addun Pastoral Baseline Report June 2011 Bosasso Urban Livelihood Baseline Study, November 2011 Galkayo Urban Baseline Report, November 2011 Hawd Baseline Report August-2011 Nugal Pastoral Baseline Report September-2011 Sool Baseline Report August-2011 Togdher Agropastoral BaseLine Report April-2001 Somalia Rural Baseline Profiles 2000-2001 Somalia Hargeisa Urban Baseline 2003 Baidoa Urban baseline analysis report 2009 Bay and Bakool baseline analysis report 2009 Somalia Typical Hunger Seasons, Month by Month Somalia Livelihood Zones Map
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