Contrasting Climatic Conditions across East Africa: Current Flooding and Forecasted Drought

• Significant improvements in crop and vegetation conditions across much of Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan, following enhanced rainfall in August, easing seasonal moisture deficits across much of the northern Sector (Figure 1).
• Extreme rainfall in August has led to extensive flooding across South Sudan. Localized flooding has also been reported in the North Darfur, South Darfur, Gedaref, River Nile, and Kassala of Sudan. Recurrent flooding and landslides have also occurred in various parts of Ethiopia.
• In Kenya and Uganda’s unimodal regions, crop development remains broadly favorable, following an above-average March–November long rains season.
• In the bimodal areas of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, harvesting is complete. While the eastern sector has generally experienced poor crop performance, most other regions are reporting more favorable outcomes. Notably, the gu harvests in southern Somalia are above both the five-year average and the long-term mean. The southern margins of the Kiremt rain-belt in Ethiopia have experienced a rainfall deficit as a result of the seasonal rain belt shifting far north.
• Persistent above-average temperatures throughout the season have driven a rapid decline in pasture conditions and surface water across most of the eastern pastoral areas, where JJAS is climatologically a dry season, raising concerns about the sustainability of current pasture biomass and water availability until the next rainfall season.
• The current outlook models for the October through December 2025 short rains indicate heightened chances of below-average rainfall across the eastern Horn, mainly driven by the ongoing and forecast negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a moderate probability of La Niña development.

March – November 

Context: Between March and November, the following are the areas and names of the rainy seasons underway in parts of East Africa: Gu rains in Somalia; long rains in unimodal Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, and Rwanda; belg rains (mid-February to May) in Ethiopia, as well as the diraac/sugum rains in the northern pastoral area and gu/genna rains in the southern and southeastern pastoral areas of Ethiopia; and the first season rains in the bimodal zones of southwestern Ethiopia, southwestern South Sudan and northern Uganda.

Harvesting is complete across most bimodal areas. Generally, the yield outcomes remain mixed. Much of the region is reporting average to above-average production following relatively favorable rainfall during the season. However, poor yields have been reported in parts of the eastern sector, particularly the marginal agricultural zones of southeastern and northeastern Kenya, northeastern and eastern Ethiopia, as well as central and northern Somalia. This was mainly triggered by erratic temporal rainfall distribution and prolonged dry spells. The same can be observed across localized regions in northern Burundi and parts of bimodal South Sudan. In Ethiopia, the 2025 belg harvest was generally average in the southern areas, but production was significantly below-average in eastern and central Oromia, eastern Amhara, and the southern Tigray region. Further, the rainfall deficits in eastern Oromia, Amhara and Tigray regions also impacted the long-maturing and high yielding sorghum and maize crops that led farmers to shift to short maturing Meher crops in July and August.

Pasture and water resources across the eastern pastoral areas of Kenya, Somalia, and much of southeastern Ethiopia are deteriorating rapidly (Figure 2). Above-average temperatures throughout the season have increased evapotranspiration rates, accelerating vegetation decline and drying of surface water pans. Given the rapid decline in pasture and water resources, body conditions are likely to deteriorate before the next rainfall season in October due to increased distance to access pasture and water.

In the unimodal zones, including North Rift Kenya and Uganda’s Karamoja region, crop conditions remain broadly favorable following an above-average rainfall season (Figure 3). Harvests in these zones are expected between October and November which should support food availability. However, parts of Karamoja have recently experienced a slight dry spell which might lead to localized yield reductions. 

June – September

Context: Between June and September, the following are the areas and names of the rainy seasons underway in parts of East Africa: Kiremt rains (June to September) in Western, Central, Northern, and Eastern Ethiopia; main rainy season (June to September) in the unimodal zones of South Sudan and Sudan; long rains in unimodal Uganda and Kenya; Karan/Karma rains (July to September) in northern pastoral areas of Ethiopia and Sitti and Fafan zones of Somali (Ethiopia) and northwestern sector of Somalia; and second rains (July to November) in South Sudan bimodal zone.

Above-average rainfall during August has brought substantial improvements in vegetation and crop conditions across much of Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan (Figure 4). In Ethiopia, the start of Kiremt rainfall was late by more than three weeks in the northeastern parts of the country, particularly in eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, Afar, and the eastern parts of Oromia. However, it intensified significantly starting late July and the following weeks in August such that the seasonal totals were achieved within a short period of time improving pasture and water availability. However, the late start had a negative impact on proper land preparation and planting of crops which will most likely define the yield outcomes. In Sudan and South Sudan, vegetation greenness has improved significantly compared to July, indicating widespread recovery in cultivated croplands and pasture availability. However, the benefits are unevenly distributed, with localized areas which experienced delayed planting or earlier-season dryness still likely to record reduced yields. Northeastern and eastern Ethiopia, as well as northwestern Somalia, experienced delayed JJAS rainfall onset, extended dry spells, and hot temperatures, which compounded the impacts of MAM rainfall deficits. In these regions, both short- and long-cycle crops have been significantly affected, and localized below-average yields are still expected despite the favorable August rainfall. In parts of northwestern Somalia, however, complete crop failure is anticipated.

Intense rainfall in August caused widespread flooding across the northern sector, resulting in extensive damage (Figure 5).  In South Sudan, persistent inundation in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile displaced tens of thousands, inundated cropland, and disrupted early harvesting, with more than 122,000 people affected and road access severely constrained. In Sudan, flash floods in Kassala, River Nile, Gedaref, South Darfur, and North Darfur led to the destruction of hundreds of homes, displaced at least 2,800 people, and heightened risks of waterborne disease outbreaks, including cholera. Extreme rainfall in the first week of september has led to a major landslide in Jebel Marra, Darfur region claiming at least 1000 lives. Besides, in Ethiopia, extreme heavy rains have led to recurrent floods and landslides, which have resulted in loss of lives and damage to properties and farmlands.

Despite the widespread damage, floodwaters have also delivered some positive impacts across parts of the region. In Sudan and South Sudan, seasonal riverine flooding has replenished water pans, wetlands, and grazing areas, temporarily improving livestock access to water and supporting vegetation regeneration. 

Short-term forecasts from the NOAA-CPC indicate continued widespread rainfall across western Ethiopia, much of South Sudan, and southern Sudan (Figure 6). The bulk of the rainfall is expected through the week ending 2^nd September, while a reduction is expected in week 2 ending 9^th September. This is expected to continue benefiting the already established crops. However, flood risk remains elevated across Ethiopia’s western and central highlands, much of South Sudan, and much of western Sudan. 

The October–December 2025 short rains forecasts consistently indicate elevated chances of below-average rainfall across eastern and southern East Africa, coupled with above-average temperatures, and a possibility for the season to be significantly below average in the eastern regions of Kenya (Figure 7). According to most ensemble models, the highest probabilities of drier-than-average conditions (55–70 percent) are centered in eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, as well as eastern Tanzania. Seasonal onset may also be delayed in southern Somalia, parts of Tanzania, and eastern Kenya. These rainfall deficits are being driven by a strengthening negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a high likelihood of persisting throughout the season, coupled with a moderate probability of La Niña conditions. This raises significant concern for poor OND rainfall performance given the already strained water and pasture conditions in areas of eastern East Africa.