Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Overall, from October 1 to 30, below average total rainfall fell in parts of South Sudan, western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western Tanzania, Kenya, and southern Somalia (Figure 1). However, much of Ethiopia continued to receive seasonally normal or above normal amounts of rainfall as the rainbelt shifted south, marking the gradual onset of the October to December Deyr/Hageya rainy season in southern Ethiopia and parts of northern Somalia. Despite, the timely progression of the rainbelt to southern Ethiopia, the October to December rains did not start and get established over much of the eastern Horn of Africa in October, especially in southern and central Somalia and northern, central, and southeastern Kenya where rainfall was only erratic and light.

The June to September rainfall season was mixed in terms of its performance over western Kenya. There was a long dry spell in May/June, and some delayed access to farm inputs contributed to late planting in some areas. However, the long rains season maize harvest started in August and is continuing in western areas and central districts in the Rift Valley. Late planting and some reduced use of inputs decreasing yields are likely to reduce yields and may contribute to what is likely to be a below average long rains maize harvest.

June to September rains were well below average in eastern Sudan and western Eritrea, with the season starting very late and rainfall totals never recovering. Overall, agricultural production in Sudan is expected to be below average, due to the delayed onset of the June to September rains and below usual area planted in surplus-producing areas. Many crops reached the maturity stage late, delaying the harvest in some areas.

Similarly, a delay of the June to September Kiremt rains in June/July in northwestern Ethiopia, led to the planting of short-cycle sorghum varieties, which have lower yields in the Northwest. This is expected to lead to Ethiopia’s sorghum crop being below average, but overall, most Kiremt-receiving areas had average to above average rains and are expecting near average to above average Meher crop production during the October to January harvests.

Following a brief start of season in early October there were up to three dry weeks in October in eastern Rwanda, many planted season A crops in Rwanda did not germinate or failed. However, replanting for season A occurred, and it is mostly completed in the East.

Generated by the e-MODIS satellite, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows several areas  had below average rangeland or crop conditions in late October, probably in response to below average performance of recent seasons (Figure 2). Cropping areas with below average vegetation conditions included eastern Sudan, southwestern Eritrea, central South Sudan, southern Uganda, and cropping areas around the Lake Victoria basin in Kenya and Tanzania. There also appear to be extensive areas of drier than seasonally normal vegetation conditions over large portions of the rangelands of the eastern Horn of Africa, along with some marginal cropping and agropastoral areas there. Above average vegetation conditions were observed in the Great Rift Valley in Kenya and Ethiopia, probably due to the recent above average rains and vegetation regeneration.

Rangeland resources, pasture and water resources were generally normal to above average for much of the northern sector of the region in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. In the eastern Horn, conditions have generally deteriorated and are well below average for southern Somalia, parts of eastern and northern Kenya, and northeastern Tanzania in late October. For the rest of the region, rangeland conditions were generally near normal in response to normal to above average seasonal rainfall performance for both the March to May long rains and the June to September Kiremt rainy season.