March to May rains started across a widespread portion of the region
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IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
countries:
Seasonal progress
Rainfall in late February and early March was mostly average to above average in amount (Figure 1). Rains started in February in Rwanda and Burundi and then spread into Uganda, southwestern Ethiopia, Kenya, and northern Tanzania in March. This is mostly normal timing for the start of the rains in the Belg-receiving areas in southwestern Ethiopia. It was also a mostly normal timing to the start of the rains for the Masika rains in northern Tanzania, the long rains in most of Kenya, and in the western parts of East Africa.
The rains started late in some areas. In others, they have been lighter than normal, and cumulative rainfall has been below average. The rains started up to twenty days late in some areas including some areas along Lake Victoria in Uganda and in eastern Amhara in Ethiopia. February and March rainfall was below average, up to 100 millimeters (mm) less than normal in North and South Wollo Zones in eastern Amhara Region in Ethiopia, in the Lake Victoria basin in Uganda, western Kenya, and northwestern Tanzania, and along the western parts of the Rwanda-Burundi border (Figure 1).
In most parts of the region, vegetation conditions have been fairly stable, and as measured by the eMODIS/Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, they have generally not yet started their seasonal improvement (Figure 2). Significantly below average vegetation conditions as measured by NDVI are found in much of Uganda, in the Lake Victoria basin in Kenya and Tanzania, northern Rwanda, coastal areas in southern Somalia, and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region in Ethiopia. The prolonged dry season and unseasonal hotter-than-normal land surface temperatures since January may have delayed land preparation and planting in some of these areas.
In the areas where the seasonal rains were a bit early and well established now, planting has occurred. Crops are currently in the emergence stage in areas of Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, northern Tanzania, western Kenya, the central Rift Valley, and central Kenya. While land preparation and planting has begun, it is not yet complete in eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and many of the Belg growing areas in Ethiopia.
Short-term forecast
Moderate to heavy rains are likely to continue over the coming week over most countries in the region. These rains will likely subside slightly and become less intense over the eastern Horn in early April as the tropical storm over the Mozambique Channel dissipates. There is a lower chance of rainfall over the coming week in Somalia, southeastern and western Ethiopia, and South Sudan (Figure 3). Sudan is generally dry at this time of year, and the forecast is for no rain in Sudan.
April is usually the month when the rains peak in intensity in the eastern Horn and in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania. While generally helping promote pasture regeneration, cropping, and the replenishment water resources, the risk of flooding increases at this time. Currently, there is a moderate to high risk of floods in the Lake Victoria basin, near Mt. Elgon along the Kenya-Uganda border, and also along the Wabi Shabelle River in southern Somalia and Somali Region of Ethiopia due to the on-going rains. This risk is likely to increase as the rains intensify in April.
About this Report
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.
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Email: eastafrica@fews.net
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The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
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