Heavy rainfall in the northern sector displaces thousands

• In July, extremely heavy rainfall in the northern sector has resulted in flooding in Ethiopia and Sudan that displaced more than 30,000 people.
• In South Sudan, inundated areas continue to expand within the Sudd wetlands in July as the rainy season progresses and river levels remain high.
• The bimodal areas of East Africa, particularly over the eastern sector of the region, saw a mixed end of the March–May season following poor rainfall distribution.
• A heightened flood risk persists for the remainder of the June-September rainy season with above-average rainfall forecasted across most parts of the northern and western sector.

Context: Between June and September, the following are the areas and names of the rainy seasons underway in parts of East Africa: Kiremt rains (June to September) in Western and Northern Ethiopia; main rainy season (June to September) in the  unimodal zones of South Sudan and Sudan; long rains in unimodal Uganda and Kenya; Karan/Karma rains (July to September) in northern pastoral areas of Ethiopia and Sitti and Fafan zones of Somalia; and second rains (July to November) in South Sudan bimodal zone.

The June to September rainfall has been average to above average across the northern sector of the East Africa region, covering northern and western Ethiopia, northern South Sudan, and Sudan (Figure 1). The rainfall season started early in most parts of Western Ethiopia and Eastern Sudan and has progressed to be above average across these regions causing flooding, mudslides, and landslides. In Ethiopia, this led to the death of approximately 160 people and displacement of more than 16,000 people. In Sudan, rainfall has been above average, particularly in the southeast and over the Darfur region, and has led to displacement of at least 14,000 people by the end of July. In South Sudan, inundated areas within the Sudd Wetlands have increased due to the ongoing average to above-average rainfall across the southeastern and northeastern parts of the country. 

Generally, the vegetation conditions across the northern and western sector have benefited from the average to above-average rains despite localized incidents of heavy downpours leading to some crop losses. In Sudan, the improvements have been slower as pastures have  yet to fully recover from the previous drier-than-average vegetation conditions due to very high temperatures (Figure 2). However, this is likely to change in the coming weeks given the above-average rainfall experienced in most parts of the country. Rangeland conditions remain favorable across most of the southern Somali Region in Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and northeastern and southwestern Kenya. Coastal regions of both Kenya and Somalia remain areas of concern for both crop and vegetation conditions given the poor rainfall distribution coupled with hotter-than-normal conditions.

Overall, conditions for good to very good crop production as measured by the crop Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) are present across the northern and western sectors (Figure 4). However, this is not expected to manifest in favorable crop production in the region due to the impacts of conflict, flooding, and displacement which the model does not take into account, particularly in Sudan, South Sudan, and conflict-affected areas of Ethiopia.   

In Kenya and Uganda, rainfall has continued and is likely to favor the long-cycle crop in the unimodal regions of Uganda that are currently in the reproductive stage. Most of the cultivated crops from the March-May season for the bimodal areas are either at the maturity stage or ready to harvest. These include most parts of Kenya, most parts of Uganda, southern South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and southern Somalia. However, crops in eastern and southeastern Kenya and southern Somalia are in poor condition following poor rainfall distribution during the season, despite above average levels. Atypically late rainfall has also been observed across central Kenya in the month of July which may interfere with the harvesting schedule. 

The August rainfall outlook, based on NMME one-month forecasts (Figure 5), indicates continued above-average rainfall across the northern sectors of western, northern, and central Ethiopia, most of South Sudan and Sudan. Western Kenya, most of Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi are also likely to benefit from this above-average rainfall in August.

Given the forecasted above-average rainfall and already high river water levels (Figure 3), flood risk will remain high across the Sudd wetlands in South Sudan and parts of Greater Darfur Region and Northern, Kassala, and Red Sea states of Sudan. In Ethiopia, flood risk will be localized in areas of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions given the continued rains in the coming weeks.