Famine Early Warning Systems Network

In the northern sector of the region, the June to September main rainy season is ongoing and rainfall has been moderate to heavy. In Sudan, northern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia, rainfall amounts were 25 to 200 millimeters (mm) above average in June. In Sudan, persistent above-average rainfall has led to flooding in south Darfur. Conversely, in central and southwestern Ethiopia, northeastern Uganda, and southwestern Kenya, rainfall was 25 to 100 mm below normal (Figure 1).

Vegetation in northern regions, as depicted by the eModis Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), are mixed (Figure 2). Above-average vegetation is observed in northeastern Ethiopia and in most areas of South Sudan and southern Sudan, in response to the average to above-average rainfall in these areas. However, localized areas of drier-than-normal vegetation conditions exist in central and southwestern areas of Ethiopia and northeastern Uganda due to below-average rainfall in June.

The Gu rainy season in the Horn of Africa ended in May and these areas have remained typically dry and hot in June. Vegetation conditions remain drier-than-normal in most of these areas, and are deteriorating faster than normal, as a result of well below-average Gu rainfall and the ongoing dry season. Below-average vegetation can be observed in northwestern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia, and central Somalia. Recent field information from Dollo (formerly Warder) Zone of Ethiopia indicates very poor pasture conditions, despite late-season rainfall, and widespread over-grazing has been reported as livestock migrate in search of pasture and water. Satellite-based surface water monitoring products show water resources declining over eastern and southern Ethiopia and parts of northern and eastern Kenya. Conversely, rangeland conditions in southern Somalia have improved slightly in the past month due to above-average Hagaa rainfall, which is typically received in some southern regions during this time.

Crop losses from Fall Armyworms (FAW) remain a concern across the region. In Ethiopia, the Ministry of Agriculture and FAO reported that FAW has infested crops in six regions. Interventions to prevent the further spread are ongoing by the Ethiopian Government. In Kenya, the Ministry of Agriculture has reported an expected 25 percent decrease of maize production compared to normal due to both below-average rainfall and FAW. In Uganda, FAW has been reported in 70 of 116 districts, but the full impact of FAW is not yet known. FEWS NET estimates 10-30 percent reduction in cereal production compared to normal, also due to below-average rainfall and FAW.

The following is a country-by-country update on recent seasonal progress to date:

• In Ethiopia, the June to September Kiremt rainfall has been favorable in most northern and central regions, although localized areas of Oromia, northern SNNPR, and Amhara have received below-average rainfall. Crops are in the early vegetative stage and currently susceptible to a FAW infestation, which has been reported in six regions of Ethiopia and has reportedly infested large areas of planted maize.
• In Sudan, ongoing, well above-average seasonal rainfall across many cropping zones of the country has supported favorable crop development. However, above-average rainfall has led to flooding in areas of south Darfur. The weekly forecasts indicate continued average to above-average rainfall, with increased likelihood for further flooding in flood-prone regions of eastern Sudan.
• In South Sudan, despite the current average to above-average seasonal rainfall, conflict continues to limit households’ capacity to cultivate and migrate livestock. Rainfall has been below average in some areas of central South Sudan, but moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast in the coming weeks.
• In Uganda, first season production is expected to be below average due to poor rainfall in some areas and crop losses from FAW; however, crop prospects are improving slightly in northern areas due to rainfall in June. In Karamoja, the ongoing April to September rainy season has so far been below average.
• In Yemen, rainfall in June was slightly below average in western coastal and highland regions. Ongoing conflict continue to limit farming activities.
• In Somalia, isolated above-average rainfall was received in southern Somalia and has improved rangeland, water resources, and crop conditions in southern Bay and coastal districts. Continued average to above-average Hagaa rainfall is forecast in July and August. In central regions, conversely, pasture and water resources are well below average.
• In Kenya, pasture and water resources are rapidly deteriorating in northern, eastern, and southern pastoral regions where poor rainfall in the proceeding season only partially restored vegetation. National maize production is estimated to be 25 percent below average due to poor seasonal rainfall and FAW crop losses.
• In Djibouti, the dry season is ongoing. Pasture and water resources are at normal levels throughout the country, though, due to average to above-average rainfall during the March to May Diraac/Sugum season. A normal onset of the July to September Karaan/Karma rainy season is expected.
• In Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern DRC, atypical moderate to heavy rainfall was received along the eastern border of DRC in June. Vegetation conditions have declined slightly in June and July in all other areas, as is typical during the dry season.