January rainfall improves harvest prospects in Burundi and Rwanda
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IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
countries:
Seasonal Progress
During the month of January, rainfall over Tanzania continued to be well above average by as much as 50 to 300 mm (Figure 1). Eastern Rwanda and Burundi benefitted from above-average rainfall in January, improving harvest prospects following below-average Season A (October-December) rainfall performance. During this time, southwestern Ethiopia, central and southern Uganda, and much of southern Kenya observed significant rainfall deficits of between -25 to -100 mm.
The poor performance and earlier-than-normal cessation of the short-rains (October to December) season, coupled with a hotter-than-normal dry season in January, have negatively impacted vegetation conditions across much of Somalia and Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and parts of northeastern Tanzania, as indicated by NDVI (Figure 2). Much of Uganda is also showing a very rapid deterioration in vegetation conditions in response to below-average rainfall performance.
The following is a country-by-country update on recent seasonal progress to date:
- Tanzania continued to receive above-average rainfall in January, further contributing to overall favorable Vuli and Msimu rains in 2017/18. Cropping and vegetation conditions have responded well and crop production prospects are favorable.
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In Burundi, eastern Rwanda, and localized areas of southeastern DRC, January rains were above average. This has helped ease the Season A rainfall deficits, particularly in December, and remained beneficial for both crop and rangeland conditions. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast to continue into mid-February, according to the short-term GFS rainfall outlooks.
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In January, southwestern Ethiopia, central and southern Uganda, and much of southern Kenya observed significant rainfall deficits of between -25 to -100 mm. In Kenya, except for parts of Turkana and Marsabit counties, the rest of the pastoral regions of northern, eastern, and southern Kenya showed poor vegetation conditions.
Forecast
The persistent above-average seasonal rains over much of Tanzania are likely to begin to subside in the coming weeks, with moderate to heavy rains (20 to 200 mm) forecast over much of western Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, and parts of southeastern DRC (Figure 3). Meanwhile, the same short-term (1-2 weeks) forecast is also indicative of continued dry seasonal conditions across much of the rest of East Africa.
About this Report
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.
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Email: eastafrica@fews.net
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The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
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