Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Overall, rainfall performance was mixed in the region over the past 30 days, with Tanzania continuing to receive well above-average rainfall (50 to 500 mm above normal), while western areas of the region, including Uganda, Rwanda, and western Kenya received significantly below-average rainfall (Figure 1). The on-going above-average rains over Tanzania are being driven by the continued presence of a strong El Niño event and tropical depression activities off the Madagscar/S.Tanzania coastal strip areas. Meanwhile, the eastern Horn remained typically dry, but hotter-than-average temperatures are resulting in the continued decline in availability of already limited rangeland resources (water and pasture) for much of the predominantly pastoral areas of Somali region of Ethiopia, central and northeastern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya.

For the early planted short-cycle crops in parts northeastern Amhara and Tigray, the unseasonal rains in January decreased in February, resulting in water stress for crops during the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, pastoral areas of northern and eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and northern Somalia have remained generally dry and hot, with parts of western Afar region having slightly better-than-normal rangeland conditions following rains in January.

Despite the recent decrease in rainfall along equatorial areas of the region, current vegetation conditions have significantly improved compared to the long-term average (2001/10) in parts of southern and central Somalia, southwestern Ethiopia, southeastern to western Kenya, much of Uganda, and over southern and eastern Tanzania, according to NDVI (Figure 2). Meanwhile, expansive areas of drier-than-average vegetation conditions (in dark-brown shade) are shown in South Sudan, indicative of rapidly deteriorating vegetation conditions. These areas will require close field monitoring to ascertain their worsening situation and as the rainfall outlook for the coming weeks indicate continued dry weather.