Mixed Seasonal Progress across the Greater Horn

• Despite a slow onset in parts of the northern sector, the overall temporal distribution of rainfall has supported a normal start to the season; however, deficits in June and July may negatively impact overall crop performance in northern and central Ethiopia, northeastern South Sudan, and southeastern Sudan.
• Both short-term and long-term forecasts indicate above-average August–September rainfall outlooks, which could significantly benefit already cultivated and early-to-maturing crops.
• Recent heavy rainfall in the last 10 days of July has triggered flooding in parts of North Darfur in Sudan, central southwest Ethiopia, and Unity and Jonglei states in South Sudan. The risk of further flooding remains high due to continued forecasts of above-average rainfall.
• Rainfall continues across the unimodal regions of western and coastal Kenya, while the Karamoja region in Uganda experienced below-average conditions between July 1^st and July 25^th (Figure 1), which could affect overall crop production.
• A mixed conclusion to the March through May season as farmers begin harvesting across the bimodal parts of the region.
• Rapid deterioration of pasture and water across eastern Kenya, south-southeastern Ethiopia, and most parts of Somalia poses a significant threat to pastoral communities.
• The October–December 2025 rainfall season is projected to be below average across the Eastern Horn, where deyr/hageya is the short rainy season, enhancing food insecurity risks for pastoral communities given the rapid deterioration of pasture and water.

March – May 

Context: Between March and May, the following are the areas and names of the rainy seasons underway in parts of East Africa: Gu rains in Somalia; long rains in unimodal Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, and Rwanda; belg rains (mid-February to May) in Ethiopia, as well as the diraac/sugum rains in the northern pastoral area and gu/genna rains in the southern and southeastern pastoral areas of Ethiopia; and the first season rains in the bimodal zones of southwestern Ethiopia, southwestern South Sudan and northern Uganda.

The March through May rainfall season across the region has experienced mixed outcomes (Figure 2). Harvest is underway across most of these bimodal regions, which received above-average cumulative rainfall, leading to average to above-average crop production. This includes Uganda, Rwanda, and most parts of Burundi despite a delayed onset. Western, South Rift, central, and parts of coastal Kenya are also expected to record average to above-average harvests. However, Northern lowlands of Burundi has had subsequent below-average rainfall for both season A and season B leading to poor crop production negatively impacting approximately 36,000 households. In bimodal South Sudan maize crops are at harvesting stage, and households are already consuming in Magwi and Torit of Eastern Equatoria, Kajo-Keji, Morobo, Yei, Lainya and rural Juba of Central Equatoria; Yambio, Ezo, Ibba, Nzara, Maridi and Mundri of Western Equatoria. In Kenya, following a rapid crop, pasture, and water assessment conducted during the third dekad of July 2025, poor crop production has been observed across the marginal agricultural regions of southeastern and northeastern Kenya. This can be attributed to the erratic temporal distribution of rainfall across these regions, with just a few days of heavy rainfall within the season. The same can be mentioned for central and northern Somalia where there are concerns of poor crop production and reduced livestock productivity both of which may be insufficient to sustain communities until the next rainy season. High temperatures have also contributed to crop and pasture failure as well as drying up of surface water pans across these regions.

The belg cropping areas of Ethiopia are expected to achieve mixed production following an above-average rainfall season across the southern belg cropping areas. However, portions of the northeastern region was characterized by belg-crop failure due to a delayed onset and below-average rainfall season.

The unimodal regions of the North Rift of Kenya and Karamoja in Uganda have generally experienced a favorable season, supported by above-average rainfall for much of the period. Harvests are anticipated between October and December. However, the Karamoja region is currently facing drier-than-average conditions, which could negatively impact the final yields and reduce overall production.

June – September

Context: Between June and September, the following are the areas and names of the rainy seasons underway in parts of East Africa: Kiremt rains (June to September) in Western, Central, Northern, and Eastern Ethiopia; main rainy season (June to September) in the unimodal zones of South Sudan and Sudan; long rains in unimodal Uganda and Kenya; Karan/Karma rains (July to September) in northern pastoral areas of Ethiopia and Sitti and Fafan zones of Somali (Ethiopia) and northern sector of Somalia; and second rains (July to November) in South Sudan bimodal zone.

The June–September rainfall season has experienced a slightly delayed onset across the northern sector, including parts of eastern Sudan, much of South Sudan, and northern Ethiopia. In contrast, areas such as southwestern and central Ethiopia, and western Sudan have seen a timely and well-established start of the season (Figure 1).

Despite the delayed onset in some locations, adequate temporal rainfall distribution has supported a generally favorable start across most of the northern sector. Figure 3 highlights the CHIRPS rainfall timeseries within Benishangul Gumuz in western Ethiopia. The blue bars indicate the current rainfall season, which highlights that despite the below-average cumulative totals, there have been consistent and sufficient rainfall amounts throughout each pentad through the end of July.

In unimodal areas of South Sudan with high conflict and residual floodwaters such as in Nasir, Ulang of Upper Nile, and Fangak of Jonglei, maize crops are atypically at early vegetative stage, likely to experience delayed harvest from August to late September/early October and will likely be significantly below average following a delayed onset of up to 1 month. Meanwhile in other unimodal areas, the early maturing sorghum crops are at varying stages of growth, ranging from late vegetative to flowering stages.

Pasture and water conditions in eastern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, and most parts of Somalia are raising serious concerns, especially for pastoralist communities. Prolonged dry spells and above-average temperatures have led to a significant decline in the gains made from the sufficient rainfall during the March–May season. Vegetation conditions based on NDVI are below average (Figure 4) and water resources are dwindling faster than usual. This may lead to an earlier-than-normal and uneven livestock migration covering longer distances than usual in search of pasture and water.

There have been reports of flooding in Dar As Salam Town in North Darfur, Sudan (Reliefweb)Addis Ababa in Ethiopia, as well as Mayendit and Bor in South Sudan (UN-OCHA), in late July, mainly due to heavy rainfall within a short period of time. This is likely to continue in the coming weeks, given the above-average rainfall forecast (see Figure 5).

Both short-term and long-term forecasts from the GFS and WMO, respectively, indicate continued rainfall across western Ethiopia, much of South Sudan, and southern Sudan (Figures 5 and 6). This is expected to benefit already established crops, particularly in the Kiremt-growing regions. However, flood risk remains elevated across Ethiopia’s western and central highlands, eastern South Sudan, and much of southern Sudan. Additionally, water levels along the Nile River and the upstream lakes in Uganda remain above average, increasing the likelihood of riverine flooding downstream.

The October–December 2025 rainfall season is forecasted to be below-average across the Eastern Horn, including eastern Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, and much of Somalia. (Figure 7). This poses serious concerns, especially to the pastoral communities, who are already facing significant stress due to the rapid deterioration of pasture and water. A below-average OND season is likely to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities to droughts among pastoralists.