Atypically hot conditions persist while rainfall deficits deepen in August in the western sector

• Much of the western sector of the region and Yemen receive seasonal rains spanning roughly June to September. To date, cumulative seasonal rainfall has been broadly average to slightly above average across much of Sudan, western portions of Ethiopia, and much of northern and western South Sudan. However, rainfall deficits in Yemen, southeastern South Sudan, Rift Valley and northern areas of Ethiopia, and the Karamoja region of Uganda have further deepened in August, with drought conditions emerging in localized areas of Ethiopia.    
• In bimodal regions of Uganda, the June to August period typically brings a lull in rainfall between the two main rainy seasons. However, below-average rainfall during this period may affect second-season land preparation and planting. Across the Horn, dry and hotter-than-normal conditions have continued, driving rapidly declining rangeland resources.
• According to the latest FEWS NET WRSI crop simulation models and available field assessments, cropping conditions are expected to be poor in areas worst affected by rainfall deficits in the June to September season. However, conditions are generally favorable across the main cereal production regions of the western and central Ethiopian highlands and parts of Sudan, South Sudan, and western and north Rift Valley counties of Kenya. However, conflict, displacement, and macro-economic challenges continue to negatively impact crop production prospects, particularly in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.
• There is a strong consensus among global, regional, and national forecasts for a strong El Niño and a strong, positive IOD by late 2023. This is typically correlated with a timely onset of the October to December rainy season and a high probability of above-average rainfall over the Horn. The above-average rainfall is generally expected to be beneficial for crop and livestock production. However, the forecast will also bring an elevated risk of flooding to low-lying and riverine areas.

As of the end of August, cumulative rainfall for the June to September main rainy season over much of the Sudans and western Ethiopia was average to slightly above average, while deficits deepened in Yemen, northeastern, southwestern, and Rift Valley areas of Ethiopia, and southeastern South Sudan (Figure 1). Crop and livestock production prospects are likely to be mixed in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia owing to localized spatial and temporal disparities in rainfall, high temperatures, and localized flooding on top of the impacts of ongoing conflict and challenged access to agricultural inputs. The widespread rainfall deficits are linked to a weak tropical rainfall production system, owing to atypical surface-level to mid-level strong easterly winds associated with the rapid development of the ongoing strong El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. 

As of the end of August, vegetation conditions across the region are mixed relative to the long-term mean (Figure 2). The below-average vegetation conditions in areas of southeastern South Sudan and along the southeastern to northwestern region of Ethiopia are driven by dry conditions. In Sudan, the below-average vegetation conditions persisting in the southeast reflect delayed cultivation due to the indirect impacts of the conflict, as well as hotter-than-usual temperatures and spatial and temporal rainfall disparities affecting the overall quality of the rainy season. On the other hand, western and central Ethiopian highlands, southern and western Sudan, and northern and western parts of South Sudan are currently experiencing above-average vegetation and cropping conditions in response to the ongoing seasonal rains.

Meanwhile, much of eastern Horn (southern and southeastern Ethiopia, Somalia, and eastern Kenya) is in the midst of a typical dry season. However, drier- and hotter-than-normal conditions have caused rapid deterioration of pasture and surface water resources in many areas, despite the recent favorable impacts of the March to May seasonal rains. This is occurring in the aftermath of the prolonged 2020-2023 drought and is hindering gradual recovery of livestock production and herd sizes.

The following is a country-by-country update on recent seasonal progress to date:

• In Somalia, drier- and hotter-than-normal conditions during the June to September hagaa dry season have continued across much of Somalia, driving deterioration in pasture and surface water resources. However, vegetation conditions are near or above average in much of the north. Poor performance of the hagaa showers in the south and the karaan showers in the north have also reduced production prospects for late-planted and off-season crops.

• In Ethiopia, the June to September kiremt rainy season is likely to conclude with significantly below-average rainfall across the northeastern to southwestern areas, and drought conditions in some areas. Current vegetation and cropping conditions have also been affected by the poor quality of the rainfall patterns. In contrast, persistently average to slightly above-average rainfall amounts over the western highlands of Ethiopia have provided favorable cropping conditions in areas that have been accessible to farming activities. However, conflict in Amhara and surrounding areas, coupled with the high cost of agricultural inputs and fuel have continued to hamper agricultural productivity in these key crop production areas. Overall, the crop production prospects are below average for the meher ­season owing to drought, conflict, and prevailing poor macroeconomic conditions. 

• In Kenya, below-average long rains maize yields finalized due to a combination of below-average rainfall performance throughout the season, poor spatial and temporal rainfall distribution, and cumulative effects of previous below-average seasons in bimodal and minor producing rainfall areas of eastern Kenya. Conversely, crops along the coast and in the unimodal center finalized under favorable conditions with adequate rainfall received. In the coastal regions, overall production is expected to be above average, though this positive outlook is limited to the coastal strip as inland counties are expecting poor yields. Long Rains cereals in the unimodal and major producing regions in the west continue to develop under favorable conditions despite worsened rainfall performance in recent weeks, and El Niño conditions are expected to bring heavy rains lasting for three months from October to December. National production of Long Rains maize is expected to be 5 to 10 percent below average.

• In Sudan, although cumulative rainfall from June to early September has largely been average to above average, the quality of the season has been negatively impacted by intermittent localized dry spells and rainfall deficits, plus hotter-than-normal temperatures in July to August over the northern and central regions. However, conflict-related factors remain the major driver of likely below-average crop yield prospects. In the typically highly productive eastern region, the disruption of the banking system, services, and trade flows due to the conflict adversely affected the availability of and access to credit and farm inputs. In parts of Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan, heavy fighting is expected to have constrained access to fields to varying extents. According to FAO reports, desert locusts have been sighted in northern Sudan and bordering countries, including Ethiopia.
• In South Sudan, rainfall conditions have been mostly average to above-average conditions in the west, while the east has been average to below average, with strong deficits emerging in the southeast. No significant changes are anticipated in September, as similar rainfall and temperature conditions are forecast during the month. The crop production is expected to be average to slightly below average nationally, but with localized significantly below average in parts of eastern Equatoria owing to unfavorable agroclimatic conditions through the June to September season. 
•  In Uganda, delayed and below-average crop production is most likely in the Karamoja region due to the poor and erratic rainfall through critical periods of crop growth in the main rainfall season. While moderate to heavy localized rainfall is forecast in September, this is unlikely to provide substantial relief to the atypically dry conditions. Maize is currently expected to be in the late reproductive and early harvesting stages. Bimodal areas have also seen atypical dryness through August, impacting field preparation for the second season. Vegetation conditions have also remained largely drier than normal over the southern cattle corridor bordering Rwanda. 
• In Rwanda and Burundi, conditions have generally remained drier-than-normal for past months during the typical dry season. Season A (September – December) rains are expected to start with a slow onset and remain unevenly distributed in early to mid-September but gradually get established later in the month.
• In Yemen, cumulative rainfall during the July to September second rainy season has been largely below average to date as of the end of August. The below-average rainfall and hotter-than-normal conditions are contributing to below-average vegetation conditions in some highland areas.

The latest two-week GEFS rainfall forecast (valid until mid-September) indicates an increased likelihood of moderate to heavy rains over the northern and western parts of the region. Furthermore, IRI/Sub-X seasonal forecasts for September 9-22 indicate that rainfall during this period will be below average (Figure 3), with seasonal deficits expected to persist (Figure 4). The seasonal rains are expected to subside slightly over northern Sudan as the tropical rainfall system gradually shifts southwards into the equatorial sector of East Africa. However, rainfall will likely remain relatively heavy over southern Sudan into South Sudan and western Ethiopia. This month marks the typical onset of the seasonal rains in bimodal Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Kenya. Parts of coastal Kenya are also expected to remain wet during this period. The rest of region is expected to remain sunny and dry, with expected onset of the seasonal rains in late September to early October.

There is strong consensus among global, regional, and national forecasts for above-average rainfall during the October to December season, with strong confidence. The consensus ICPAC forecast indicates high probabilities of above-average rainfall amounts, particularly over the eastern Horn where probabilities exceed 80 percent (Figure 5).

Above-average rainfall during the October to December season raises concern for desert locust breeding given conducive wet conditions. Locusts have been sighted in northern Sudan and Ethiopia and could migrate along the Rift Valley regions into Somalia and Kenya in the coming months. If the locusts shift southwards, they are likely to erode the beneficial impacts of wetter-than-normal conditions on crop production, as witnessed during their historic invasion of 2019-21.