Above-average rains remain favorable to cropping in northern areas, but flooding risks remain
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IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
countries:
Seasonal Progress
During the past 30 days, rainfall has remained near or above average over most northern areas of East Africa, including most of Sudan, South Sudan, northern and western Ethiopia, northern Somalia, Djibouti, and Yemen. Meanwhile, rainfall has been below average in southeastern South Sudan, and southwestern and northeastern Ethiopia (Figure 1).
eMODIS/NDVI suggests vegetation conditions are currently above average in Ethiopia, South Sudan, parts of Sudan, Karamoja in Uganda, Rift Valley regions of Kenya, and southeastern and central Tanzania (Figure 2). Despite these indications, field reports suggest cropping prospects are slightly below normal in Karamoja in Uganda, due to long dry spells earlier in the year. Available field reports, together with remotely sensed observations and crop model ouputs confirm favorable cropping conditions in the rest of these areas. Meanwhile, vegetation conditions have continued to deteriorate along the East Africa coastal strip, due to its poor long-rain seasons, coupled with well above-normal land surface temperatures, negatively impacting rangeland resources (water and pasture) and cropping conditions.
The following is a country-by-country of recent seasonal progress to date:
- In South Sudan, main season (June to September) rainfall since mid-July has been been average to above average throughout most northern unimodal areas. Flooding has been reported in Jonglei, Unity, and Lakes States, destroying hundreds of homes and inundating crops. In the bimodal Equatoria states, the second (August to November) rainy season has been near normal in most areas, although rainfall has been below average in parts of Western and Eastern Equatoria.
- In Ethiopia, Kiremt (June to September) seasonal rainfall has remained above average between mid-July and mid-August, further contributing to generally favorable cropping prospects across many of the highly productive agricultural areas in the central and western highlands. In many areas, total seasonal rainfall to date is between 120 and 150 percent of average. However, excessive rainfall is also leading to an increased risk of flooding in flood-prone areas. In SNNPR and eastern Oromia, rainfall deficits of 10 to 50 mm over the past 30 days have contributed to seasonal rainfall deficits reaching nearly 100 mm. Particularly in SNNPR, rainfall deficits are reportedly leading to limited regeneration of pasture.
- In northernwestern Somalia, northeastern Ethiopia, and Djibouti, Karan/Karma (June to September) rainfall since mid-July has been near to above average, leading to regeneration of pasture and improvements in water availability for livestock. In Yemen, rainfall since mid-July has been above average, which has led to above-average vegetation conditions. While favorable for crop growth and regeneration of pastoral resources, above-average rainfall is also leading to favorable conditions for locust reproduction, which could lead to damage to crops in localized areas.In Sudan, main season (June to September) rainfall has been above average since mid-July in most agricultural, agropastoral, and pastoral areas. As in western Ethiopia, these persistently above-average rains are likely to result in floods in flood-prone areas, as the Nile and Al Gash River levels are abnormally high at this time of the year. Flooding has already reportedly displaced households and damaged infrastructure in several states, including South Darfur, Blue Nile, Kassala, Khartoum, and White Nile.
- In most areas of Somalia, the dry season is ongoing. The coastal Xagaa rains have been largely below average. As a result of this and previously below-average Gu (March to May) rainfall, Gu crop production in most southern and central regions is expected to be below average.
- In parts of the western and Rift Valley regions of Kenya, the resumption of the long rains in late June through mid-August helped with crop recovery after the prolonged dry spell in May and June. However, crop yields are still expected to be reduced due to the previous moisture stress and wilting. Rangeland conditions in northern and southeastern Kenya have continued to rapidly deteriorate, worsened by above-normal land surface temperatures.
- In Uganda, rainfall was erratically distributed and slightly below average in unimodal Karamoja between mid-July and mid-August, with crop production prospects remaining below normal due to a prolonged dry spell in May and early June.
Forecast
The short-term NOAA/GFS rainfall forecast (Figure 3) through September 1, 2016 suggests heavy rainfall will continue across western and central Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. This is often the peak period of the June to September seasonal rains in the northern areas of East Africa. Widespread moderate to locally very heavy rainfall are also likely to occur in the coming weeks in western and Rift Valley regions of Kenya and northern Uganda, with increased likelihood for flooding in areas surrounding the Mt. Elgon region of Uganda.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Horn and much of Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi are expected to be normally sunny and dry, but with the highlands remaining relatively cool with light rains. Light to moderate rains are also forecast along the coastal strip of Kenya and northeastern Tanzania, including northern coastal areas of Somalia. In bimodal Uganda, two-week rainfall forecasts and seasonal forecasts for near average rainfall suggest the second (mid-August to November) seasonal rains will begin on time and be near-average in terms of quantity.
There is increased likelihood for mild La Niña conditions in August and September, which could lead to wetter conditions over northern areas of the region, especially in western and central Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan. The consensus seasonal rainfall outlook, for October to December is expected to be released by end of this month. For updates, see www.icpac.net.
About this Report
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.
Region Contact Information
Email: eastafrica@fews.net
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About FEWS NET
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
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