Remote Monitoring Report

Anticipated above-normal Season A rains likely to improve food security from mid-December

October 2015
2015-Q4-1-1-RW-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity is likely to persist among poor households in the Bugesera Cassava Livelihood, Central Plateau Cassava and Coffee, and the Eastern Semi-Arid Agro Pastoral Zones through early December. Limited household food stocks from below-average Season B production, heightened food prices, and reduced labor opportunities through most of 2015 have reduced poor households’ purchasing power. 

  • According to the United Nations Humanitarian Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), about 69,205 refugees from Burundi remain in Rwanda. Although the influx of refugees has subsided from the peak in April, renewed political tensions in Burundi could cause an increase in refugee flows into Rwanda and neighboring countries. The influx of refugees continues to put pressure on income and food sources for poor households in host communities. 

 ZONE

 CURRENT ANOMALIES

 PROJECTED ANOMALIES

Bugesera Cassava Livelihood Zone in Eastern Province and Central Plateau Cassava and Coffee Zone in Southern Province

  • Household food stocks depleted earlier-than-normal because of cumulative impacts of below normal Season B harvests of maize, beans and cassava.
  • Sustained above normal food prices are likely to continue through early December, limiting household food access. However, household food stocks are expected to replenish from mid-December, through March 2016.

Parts of Bugesera Cassava Livelihood, Southeastern Plateau Banana, and the Eastern Semi-Arid Agro Pastoral Zones

  • While the influx of refugees from Burundi has slowed considerably, the over 69,000 people continue to reduce food and income sources for poor households, in parts of these three zones.
  • Rising political instability could precipitate renewed conflict and result in additional inflows of refugees, compromising income and food sources for poor host populations, by mitigating anticipated improvements in household food security after mid-December.

 

Projected Outlook through March 2016

The 2015 September-December Season A rains began erratically, particularly in the Eastern Semi-Arid Agro Pastoral Zone, which has resulted in below-average vegetation levels as of early October (Figure 1). Nevertheless, a resurgence in rainfall in late September increased agricultural labor activities, and most farmers are planting key staples including maize, beans, potatoes, and cassava. In Rwanda, El Nino is broadly associated with above-average rainfall during the October to December period, which will likely lead to average to above-average harvests from mid-December through February 2016. 

Season A harvests are expected to be near or above average, following the below-average (by 10-20 percent) June-July Season B harvests. The less important September Season C harvests, coupled with land preparation and planting at the start of Season A, have improved food stocks and labor incomes for a few poor households, partially mitigating the impacts of the below-average Season B production.

An estimated 69,205 refugees from Burundi are in Rwanda, according to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), predominately in Kigali and parts of Central Plateau Cassava and Coffee, Southeastern Plateau Banana, Eastern Semi-Arid Agro Pastoral Zones, and Bugesera Cassava Livelihood Zones. The presence and passage of refugees through these areas has led to an increased supply of labor on the market, limiting incomes for poor households who typically derive up to 60 percent of their income from labor. Below-average income is being accompanied by atypical price increases of staple foods (maize) as of August, which remain above 11 percent above average in October. Refugee flows are in part increasing the demand for key staples.

Poor households are likely to continue to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the end of the lean season in December due to below-average income and above-average staple food prices. However, household access to food and income will improve from mid-December through most of February due to current prospects for near or above-average Season A harvests, assuming damage from Cassava Brown Streak Disease is limited. As a result, food insecurity outcomes are expected to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1), through at least the end of the outlook period in March. The number of refugees could increase further should current political instability cause additional displacement.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics