Anticipated above-normal Season A rains likely to improve food security from mid-December

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity is likely to persist among poor households in the Bugesera Cassava Livelihood, Central Plateau Cassava and Coffee, and the Eastern Semi-Arid Agro Pastoral Zones through early December. Limited household food stocks from below-average Season B production, heightened food prices, and reduced labor opportunities through most of 2015 have reduced poor households’ purchasing power. 

• According to the United Nations Humanitarian Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), about 69,205 refugees from Burundi remain in Rwanda. Although the influx of refugees has subsided from the peak in April, renewed political tensions in Burundi could cause an increase in refugee flows into Rwanda and neighboring countries. The influx of refugees continues to put pressure on income and food sources for poor households in host communities. 

The 2015 September-December Season A rains began erratically, particularly in the Eastern Semi-Arid Agro Pastoral Zone, which has resulted in below-average vegetation levels as of early October (Figure 1). Nevertheless, a resurgence in rainfall in late September increased agricultural labor activities, and most farmers are planting key staples including maize, beans, potatoes, and cassava. In Rwanda, El Nino is broadly associated with above-average rainfall during the October to December period, which will likely lead to average to above-average harvests from mid-December through February 2016. 

Season A harvests are expected to be near or above average, following the below-average (by 10-20 percent) June-July Season B harvests. The less important September Season C harvests, coupled with land preparation and planting at the start of Season A, have improved food stocks and labor incomes for a few poor households, partially mitigating the impacts of the below-average Season B production.

An estimated 69,205 refugees from Burundi are in Rwanda, according to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), predominately in Kigali and parts of Central Plateau Cassava and Coffee, Southeastern Plateau Banana, Eastern Semi-Arid Agro Pastoral Zones, and Bugesera Cassava Livelihood Zones. The presence and passage of refugees through these areas has led to an increased supply of labor on the market, limiting incomes for poor households who typically derive up to 60 percent of their income from labor. Below-average income is being accompanied by atypical price increases of staple foods (maize) as of August, which remain above 11 percent above average in October. Refugee flows are in part increasing the demand for key staples.

Poor households are likely to continue to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the end of the lean season in December due to below-average income and above-average staple food prices. However, household access to food and income will improve from mid-December through most of February due to current prospects for near or above-average Season A harvests, assuming damage from Cassava Brown Streak Disease is limited. As a result, food insecurity outcomes are expected to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1), through at least the end of the outlook period in March. The number of refugees could increase further should current political instability cause additional displacement.