Season B harvest enhances food access, driving Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes

• The ongoing Season B harvest has enhanced food availability throughout the country, sustaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. Furthermore, the government eliminated the value-added tax (VAT) for Irish potatoes, rice, maize flour, and maize in April, which, combined with the increased availability of the Season B harvest in June, has caused a significant 30 to 40 percent decrease in staple food prices. This reduction in prices has further facilitated access to food through purchases. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), the monthly food inflation rate in rural areas slowed in May by 6.2 percent compared to 3.8 percent in April, while the annual food inflation rate increased by 46 percent. However, despite the decline in staple food prices, non-staple food and non-food items remain atypically expensive, particularly impacting poor rural households that heavily rely on the market.

• Given national and international forecasts indicating for above-average rainfall, an above-average Season C harvest is expected in September, which is likely to improve food availability in rural areas. However, during the main lean season from October to December, poor households are expected to exhaust their food stocks, making them reliant on market purchases. As a result of above-average food prices, the number of people experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is likely to increase, although remaining less than 20 percent of the population. Access to interseason crops and income from agricultural labor and increased livestock sales are expected to mitigate the severe deterioration of food security outcomes. The projected above-average rainfall from October to December is expected to yield a bumper harvest during Season A in the beginning of 2024, thereby enhancing food access. However, the heavy rainfall will also increase the risk of flash flooding, landslides, crop damage, infrastructure destruction, and displacement of people in localized areas, particularly in the western parts of Rwanda.

• In Kigali City, it is expected that Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will continue throughout the projection period. Most households are likely to have access to various income-generating opportunities resulting from the improvement of industrial activities and contributing to increased food access. Additionally, local seasonal harvests, combined with improved cross-border trade with Uganda and Tanzania, are contributing to increased market supply and enhanced food availability. These factors, along with the removal of VAT on staple food items, are helping to stabilize food prices. As per the May NISR 2023 report, the monthly food inflation rate in urban areas slowed by approximately 4 percent, while the annual inflation rate was around 25 percent, indicating above-average food prices. Due to the continued high prices of both food and non-food items, poor urban households, accounting for less than 20 percent of the population, are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the lean season from October to December.

• The estimated 133,000 refugees and asylum seekers in Rwanda are expected to face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) throughout the projection period. While cash transfers were adjusted to mitigate the impact of rising food inflation and prevent more severe food insecurity outcomes, the ongoing increase in food prices continues to erode the purchasing power of cash transfers, widening consumption gaps among most refugees. The refugees have limited income sources and rely mainly on humanitarian assistance, which covers approximately 50 percent of their monthly food needs, complemented by some income from petty trading. The expected increase in food prices during the lean period will further diminish the value of cash transfers and is likely to limit access to food. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has resulted in an influx of approximately 7,000 refugees since November 2022, further straining humanitarian resources. These recent arrivals are being temporarily hosted in the Nkamira transit site, while the poor households in Western Province are likely to have below-average income due to the ongoing conflict along the border with DRC.

The ongoing Season B harvest has enhanced food access among rural households, sustaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes in rural areas. Availability of the seasonal harvest, together with the removal of the VAT on Irish potatoes, rice, maize flour, and maize in April, has contributed to 30 to 40 percent decreases in food prices, making market purchases more affordable and thus improving food access among poor rural households. According to May 2023 rural food CPI data, food prices decreased by 6.2 percent compared to April 2023 (Figure 1). However, there has been a 46 percent increase in food prices compared to May 2022. The decrease in prices can be attributed to an 8.6 percent drop in bread and cereal prices and a 7.1 percent decrease in vegetable prices, which can be attributed to the removal of VAT on cereals and the beginning of the green harvest for vegetables. Despite the decline in prices for staple foods, it is worth noting that prices remain unusually high compared to the previous year. For example, in the Northern Province, the price of a kilogram of Irish potatoes is nearly double the usual price for this season, standing at 480 RWF. 

The Season B harvest contributes around 30 percent of the national annual harvest and is expected to be average overall. However, localized areas that experienced severe crop damage due to excessive rainfall and flash flooding are likely to have below-average Season B harvests. This situation will result in the early depletion of food stocks in those areas, leading to an increased reliance on food purchases amid high food prices. The districts most affected by excessive rainfall and flooding include Nyamagabe in the Southern Province, Rubavu, Nyabihu, Ngororero, and Rutsiro in the Western Province, and Musanze and Burera in the Northern Province. Bean production in particular has been adversely affected by the excessive water, and key informants indicate that the price of a kilogram of beans has risen to around 1,200 RWF, compared to the usual price of 900 RWF/kg. Around 11,000 individuals who were displaced by the floods are expected to remain in camps, but the government, with the support of external partners, is providing adequate food assistance likely sufficient to support Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes, as well as addressing other basic non-food needs. The ongoing conflict in the eastern border region of DRC is expected to continue disrupting cross-border trade, particularly in Nyamasheke and Rusizi districts in the Western Province. This disruption will reduce income from the sale of crops and migratory labor, thereby limiting purchasing power and access to food for households that depend on this income source.

The upcoming Season C harvest, which contributes approximately 15 percent of the national annual crop harvest, is expected to improve food access. The international weather forecast indicates an average harvest with above-average rainfall in August and September, which is expected to increase availability of food in rural areas. As the lean season progresses toward the end of 2023, many poor households are likely to deplete their own food stocks, becoming increasingly reliant on food purchases. However, this coincides with peak food prices, resulting in wider food consumption gaps. On a positive note, the forecast for above-average rainfall in October to December is expected to result in a bumper harvest during Season A, which will enhance overall food access across the country in early 2024. However, heavy rainfall during this period may also lead to flash flooding in lowland areas and landslides in mountainous regions, damaging crops and infrastructure in localized areas. Despite these challenges, further deterioration of food insecurity is likely to be mitigated by continued government support for flood-displaced persons, enhanced cross-border trade, income from livestock sales and agricultural labor (such as land preparation, planting, and weeding), and the availability of interseason crops such as bananas, sweet potatoes, and cassava. However, it is anticipated that the overall number of households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will increase in rural areas, although it is not expected to exceed 20 percent of the total population.

In Kigali City, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will likely be sustained throughout the projection period due to sustained improvement of household income-earning opportunities as a result of continued economic growth, decreased food prices due to increased food supply from Season B harvest, enhanced cross-border trade, and removal of VAT on selected staple foods in April 2023. According to the June 2023 Index of Industrial Production report, industrial output from the formal sector increased by 5.5 percent compared to April 2022, driven by growth in the mining and quarrying, electricity, and water and waste management sectors. Similarly, according to the Labor Force Survey for Q1 2023, urban unemployment decreased to 17 percent from 24.4 percent in Q4 2022.

However, despite these positive trends, there are challenges related to high food and non-food prices, expensive transportation costs, and reduced purchasing power due to local currency depreciation against the USD. The persistently high food prices will likely continue to constrain food access among urban poor households, increasing the number of households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in Kigali, particularly during the October to December major lean season, when food prices are expected to be highest. According to the May 2023 urban CPI, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 25.4 percent compared to May 2022 but decreased by 3.8 percent compared to April 2023, influenced by the removal of VAT and the increased food supply from the Season B harvest. Due to the ongoing Season B harvest, an average Season C harvest expected in September, and enhanced cross-border trade, food supply to the urban markets is expected to increase, moderating prices. However, atypically high food prices will likely persist throughout the year, constraining food access and resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for an increased number of households in Kigali City, although this number is expected to remain below 20 percent of the population.

According to UNHCR’s May 2023 estimates, Rwanda is currently hosting approximately 133,000 refugees and asylum seekers, which is an increase of about 7,000 from the previous estimate in March 2023. The increase in refugees and asylum seekers is attributed to an influx of newly displaced persons from the eastern DRC conflict, which UNHCR estimates to have displaced more than 7,000 asylum seekers to Rwanda since November 2022. Additionally, Rwanda has received over 130 refugees and asylum seekers of different nationalities evacuated from Libya and settled in Gashora transit center in Bugesera district on June 12. Most of the refugee population relies heavily on humanitarian food assistance and is expected to remain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), with cash transfers for food assistance preventing worse food insecurity outcomes. However, although WFP increased cash transfers in February 2023 to mitigate high food price inflation, food prices have continued to rise, eroding the purchase value of cash transfers. According to WFP price monitoring, the adjusted cash transfer amounts for highly and moderately food-insecure individuals were 28 percent and 64 percent lower, respectively, than the minimum food basket values. Given the ongoing funding shortfall for humanitarian assistance, the growing number of refugees, and their heavy reliance on humanitarian food assistance due to limited access to supplemental income and food sources, food consumption gaps are expected to widen among the refugee population. Consequently, it is anticipated that the number of individuals experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will increase during the major lean season from October to December.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Rwanda Remote Monitoring Update, June 2023: Season B harvest enhances food access driving Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, 2023.