Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Rural households have increased availability and access to their own produced food stocks from the recent 2023 Season A harvest, and this food source is supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. In general the Season A harvest was average, but erratic rains in localized areas of the west and east of the country are likely to reduce bean production. Poor farmers in the east and west will likely sell their harvest to repay the loans used to access agricultural inputs and purchase food and non-food commodities, causing faster depletion of stocks by about four to six weeks, instead of twelve weeks. As the price of food is consistently higher than the average, the purchasing power of poor families will remain lower than usual. The rural food CPI for January 2023 shows a sustained high trend in annual and monthly food prices compared to November 2021. An approximate four percent monthly increase in rural food CPI was recorded in January 2023, during the peak of the harvest season when prices are expected to decline. The monthly food increase was mainly driven by a 7 percent increase in vegetable prices due to increased demand by poor households starting to consume relatively cheaper vegetables.

Localized dry spells and erratic rain have affected the production of beans in Eastern and Western provinces, leading to below-average yields (Figure 1). Other crops like maize, cassava, and root crops are less affected by the erratic rains, helping fill the gap created by reduced bean production. Poor and very poor households are expected to earn average income from daily wages, both agricultural and non-agricultural, that enhances their access to food. At the national level, a marginal decline in food prices was observed but food prices for most staples (maize, beans and Irish potatoes) remain above average. The unusually high food and non-food prices will likely prompt increased sale of food stocks to meet essential expenses and the cost of farm inputs. Combined with below-average yield, these sales should contribute to early depletion of stocks for some households. Amid high prices, this will likely increase dependence on purchase for food access mainly for poor and very poor households, leading to an increase in the number of rural households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the April to May 2023 minor lean season.

The tensions on Rwanda-DRC borders have not only caused population displacement but has also negatively affected cross-border trade, especially in Western Province. The small-scale traders in Western Province’s Nyamasheke and Rusizi districts, who trade with the Congolese, have lost significant income due to disruption of cross-border trade. However, the availability of cash crops, increased trading with neighboring domestic provinces, enhanced supply from improved cross-border trade with Uganda and Burundi, and access to income from on-going land preparations for Season B planting are all mitigating the loss of income from lower trade with DRC. Overall, it’s likely there are populations in facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, but less than 20 percent of the population of these areas. 

In Kigali, improved household income levels in the past two years, caused by gradual economic recovery, business opportunities, and increased food supply from rural areas after seasonal harvest, continue to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, the fourth quarter 2022 labor survey in November 2022 noted an urban unemployment rate of 24  percent, reflecting an increase from the third quarter, attributing this to slowed economic growth due to local and external factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, January 2023 urban CPI recorded an atypical increasing trend in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages which rose by 2.7 percent compared to December 2022. Consequently, the purchasing power of urban poor households will remain overstretched, limiting food access amid sustained high food and non-food prices and high transport costs. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely among some poor households in Kigali.

According to UNHCR’s January 2023 estimates, Rwanda hosts 127,000 refugees and asylum seekers who rely on humanitarian food assistance from WFP and other agencies. Insecurity in the eastern DRC, which escalated in November 2022, continues to increase the number of refugees, with over 3,700 new asylum seekers arriving in Rwanda by the end of January 2023. Meanwhile, the improving security situation in Burundi will likely motivate more Burundian refugees to return home. The majority refugee population is expected to remain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) with the food assistance preventing worse outcomes among the refugee community. Additionally, some very poor households in rural areas are likely to face Crisis (IPC 3) during the lean season between April and June. According to WFP report, cost of food baskets remain atypically high, increasing by 76 percent compared to January 2022 prices, compromising the purchasing power of the people assisted with cash-based transfers. Since refugees mostly rely on humanitarian food assistance, amid low income-earning opportunities and high food prices, they would likely face food consumption gaps in the absence of assistance.