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Likely average Season A harvests to help maintain favorable food access

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Rwanda
  • February 2018
Likely average Season A harvests to help maintain favorable food access

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  • Key Messages
  • PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2018
  • Key Messages
    • Overall, the 2018 Season A harvest is expected to be average, despite some production deficits in the east. With existing income-earning opportunities and a favorable Season B rainfall forecast, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to continue countrywide through September 2018. However, some poor households in Kayonza, Kirehe, and Nyagatare districts in Eastern Province may already be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to below-average Season A production.

    • According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, January cereal prices atypically increased by more than five percent compared to December 2017 due to a combination of erratic rainfall and Fall Armyworm damages. However, with the expected steady, domestic supply of non-cereal crops and robust regional trade, staple food prices are likely to be relatively stable through September 2018.    

    • According to UNHCR, as of January 31, 2018, Rwanda hosted about 174,000 refugees and asylum seekers, more than half Burundians. The monthly arrival rate of Burundian asylum seekers fell in January, putting average monthly arrivals at about 486 since November. WFP funding shortfalls persist, so refugees in camps continue to receive a quarter less in daily rations but can seek daily labor outside of the camps.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Localized sectors of Kayonza, Kirehe, and Nyagatare districts in Eastern Province

    • Due to erratic Season A rainfall, localized areas experienced below-average production, particularly in one sector in Nyagatare, three sectors in Kayonza, and three in Kirehe. Except for the most vulnerable households, income-earning opportunities and well-supplied markets are facilitating food access.
    • Season B (February-May) rainfall is forecast to be initially below average but intensifying to above average from March onwards. The harvest is likely to be average, but there could be localized areas of crop production deficits due to late planting and/or erratic rainfall. However, the deficits are not projected to be as significant as in 2018 Season A.

    PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2018

    Although official crop assessment results are not yet available, the generally favorable and well-distributed Season A rainfall across the country suggest that, with the exception of seven sectors in the drought-prone Eastern Province, Season 2018 A crop production will likely be average. Local markets, well-supplied from both domestic and regional supplies, and available income-earning opportunities, especially in irrigation projects, are likely to continue facilitating good food access. It is worth noting that with additional recent irrigation projects and marshlands reclamation in Eastern Province, there will be less rain-fed cropping areas, resulting in more stable and predictable crop yields.

    With Season B (February-May) rainfall forecast to only be below average in February, and above average thereafter, harvests at a national-level are likely to be average to above average in June. Initial planting has begun countrywide, but farmers are likely to continue to stagger their planting. If planting continues until mid-March, and the season ends prematurely though, there is a possibility, particularly in lowland areas that there could be localized areas of crop production shortfalls. By September, household food reserves, especially those near marshlands, will again be replenished with the 2018 Season C harvests. 

    The most vulnerable poor households in Eastern Province are likely to continue facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, especially during the late April-early May lean period. However, the ongoing infrastructure development (roads, irrigation systems, housing) and cash-for-work programs are expected to provide the needed incomes for food market purchases for the majority of poor households. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, January cereal prices rose by more than five percent compared to December 2017 due to a combination of erratic rainfall and a Fall Armyworm infestation. However, staple food prices, besides a slight rise in April, are likely to remain relatively stable through September 2018. 

    According to UNHCR, as of the end of January, Rwanda hosted about 174,000 refugees and asylum seekers. Nearly 57,000 of them are Burundians living in Mahama Camp in Kirehe District, where their daily rations remain at only 75 percent of minimum daily requirements due to WFP funding gaps. To help ameliorate the funding cuts, the Government of Rwanda has continued to relax refugees’ mobility rules to allow them to go out and seek casual labor opportunities to support market food purchases. With the support of partners, the Government is also in the process of integrating them in its national safety net program, including through high-intensity labor programs and the provision of collaterals or guarantees to participate in programs supported by microfinance institutions. These initiatives are likely to prevent the deterioration of refugees’ food security and keep them in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September 2018. It is worth noting that despite ongoing civil unrest in the DRC, including in North Kivu Province bordering Rwanda, no influx of Congolese asylum seekers to Rwanda has occurred, unlike in neighboring Burundi.

    Overall, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist through September countrywide, but Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely for the most vulnerable households in semi-arid areas of Eastern Province and for refugees living in camps in Rwanda.

    Figures SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Figure 1

    SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Source: FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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