The ongoing Season B harvest has replenished food stocks in rural areas
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
countries:
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
CURRENT AND PROJECTED ANOMALIES
ZONE |
CURRENT ANOMALIES |
PROJECTED ANOMALIES |
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National |
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Rural areas |
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Kigali City |
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Refugee and asylee population |
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PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2023
In general, the average Season B harvest has enhanced food availability and access in rural areas; however, shortfalls expected in the Eastern part were compensated by crops produced from the irrigation scheme. The availability of interseason crops is expected to generally maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until January. Income from the Seasonal increased labor demand for land preparation for Season A planting and from selling poultry and small ruminants is also enhancing food access. However, atypically high food prices in the harvest season are limiting access for many poor households. The rural Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose for the seventh consecutive month in July, rising by 34.5 percent annually and 6.4 percent compared to June 2022. The rise in the monthly food CPI was mainly driven by 8.4 and 10.8 percent increases in prices of non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables, respectively, linked to the high cost of food production and transport.
Given a 70-percent lower harvest of Irish potatoes in Northern Province and increased sales of stocks motivated by high staple prices, households are likely to deplete their supplies earlier than usual. Ultimately, families will start relying on purchases amid high prices, leading to limited food access and an increased number of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) households. The share of households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity is expected to peak during the next lean season from October to December 2022, when their own-produced food stocks are lowest, and market reliance is high. This is mainly expected to manifest in the reduced dietary diversity of their meals, as well as some difficulty affording essential non-food needs. More severe deterioration in acute food insecurity is expected to be mitigated by an increase in household sales of poultry and livestock.
Household income levels are higher than in the past two years, driven by the recent economic recovery that has created employment and business opportunities in Kigali. As a result, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are most likely among the urban population. However, food prices remain relatively high despite the seasonal increase in food supplies to urban areas after the Season B harvest. The July 2022 urban CPI recorded a sustained increasing trend in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, with annual and monthly increases of 28.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Higher food prices, high cost of transport, and non-food items continue to limit households’ purchasing power, likely increasing the number of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) urban households.
UNHCR’s July 2022 estimates show that Rwanda hosts an estimated 127,194 protracted refugees and asylees, many of whom continue to depend almost entirely on humanitarian food assistance. In addition, Rwanda received 103 refugees evacuated from Libya on August 18, 2022, adding to the 421 refugees already settled in the Gashora Transit Centre. The refugee population is expected to remain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), food assistance likely preventing worse food insecurity outcomes. The growing economic activities in early 2022 stimulated informal employment and labor opportunities for the refugees, but the income remains insufficient to cover their basic needs. Low income, high food prices, and the anticipated economic slowdown leave many at risk of food consumption gaps. WFP continued to distribute reduced food rations, with highly vulnerable refugees (86 percent of the population) receiving 92 percent of the food basket, while the moderately vulnerable, who comprise 7 percent of the refugee population, received 46 percent of the food basket. WFP monitoring indicates that the average cost of the food basket increased by 11.5 percent in June 2022 compared to the previous month.
About Remote Monitoring
In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.
Region Contact Information
Email: fewsinquiry.east@fews.net