Famine Early Warning Systems Network

National

• The persistently high cost of staple foods, farm inputs, gasoline, and imported food and non-food items driven by domestic, regional, and global factors continues to reduce household purchasing power.
• The border tension between Rwanda and the DRC has declined, but tensions remain high; it has negatively affected cross-border trade and interrupted agriculture activities, mainly on the DRC side. Cross-border trade with Uganda is gradually improving to benefit traders and the community.

• Russia-Ukraine war, tight domestic and regional crop supplies, and constrained trade with the DRC, food and non-food prices are expected to remain elevated throughout 2022, peaking during the primary lean season from October to December.
• The high cost of farm inputs will likely result in reduced use of chemical fertilizers and quality seeds, resulting in generally low Season C and Season A harvests.
• The tension between Rwanda and the DRC will likely persist, restricting cross-border trade and movements.

Rural areas

• The average Season B harvest has increased food availability and access, but food prices remain unusually high in the harvest/post-harvest period. Prices of maize, beans, and Irish potatoes are atypically high for this period. Labor for Season A land preparation increased in rural areas, and labor costs rose to 1200 RWF/day, a 20 percent increment.

• The rural Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food and non-alcoholic beverages in July rose by 34.5 percent compared to July last year and 6.4 percent compared to June 2022.  
• The high cost of agricultural inputs is increasing the financial burden among rural households. The government subsidizes fertilizers for agro-dealers, who supply the farmers with farm inputs.

• High staple food prices are likely to persist in rural areas, limiting access to food. However, increased agricultural labor for Season B harvest and Season A land preparation will provide employment and income-earning opportunities in rural areas.
• Early depletion of food stocks and reliance on purchases amid high prices will likely lead to reduced food access in rural areas.
• The Season C harvest from the Marshland in Southern Province is likely to be low due to the forecasted below-average rainfall, high cost of farm inputs, and reduced planted acreage.
• Based on the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts, the September to December 2022 rainfall in Rwanda is likely to be below average, increasing the chances of reduced crop yields for Season A 2022/2023.

Kigali City

• Although the urban unemployment rate fell to 17.8 percent in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022, it remains slightly above pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2020. The lack of full recovery in employment is likely due to slowed economic growth prospects and a higher inflation rate.
• The urban CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages in July 2022 sustained an upward trend starting in January 2022, rising by 28.6 percent compared to July last year and 2.9 percent compared to June 2022.

• Food prices in urban areas are likely to increase due to reduced supply from rural areas during the primary lean season and high costs of imported food items. The increasing trend in the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages will likely persist throughout 2022.  
• According to the Rwanda Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, the economy is expected to grow by 6 percent in 2022, reflecting a  slowdown due to the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, employment, wages, and household purchasing power are expected to decline amid high food and non-food prices.

Refugee and asylee population

• The estimated 127,194 refugees and asylees continued receiving a reduced food ration. The June 2022 WFP report shows that 86 percent of highly vulnerable refugees received a monthly cash transfer for up to 27 days of their kilocalorie (kcal) needs. Seven percent of refugees who are considered moderately vulnerable received a monthly cash transfer for up to 14 days of their kcal needs. According to WFP monitoring, the food price increase in June 2022 lowered the purchasing power for highly and moderately vulnerable groups by 32 and 66 percent, respectively.

• Due to a WFP funding gap of USD 4.8 million, reduced rations for highly and moderately vulnerable refugees and asylees will likely persist throughout 2022. The value of cash transfers will likely continue to decrease due to increasing food prices, compromising the quantity and quality of food purchased.