Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Households in rural areas are still utilizing food stocks from the above-average Season B harvest. Stocks remain above average mainly due to restricted movement that hindered inter-district and urban marketing of food in June and July. This has increased food availability and access among rural households. The increased supply of food to both rural and urban areas that followed the lifting of inter-district movement restrictions in August 2021 is stabilizing food prices across the country. In the Northern Province, the August 2021 price of beans is about 400 RWF/kg compared to the average August price of about 550 RWF/kg. Similarly, current maize price of about 250 RWF/kg is lower compared to usual seasonal price of about 350 RWF/kg.  On the other hand, land preparation for Season A planting increased demand for agricultural labor, thus providing income for poor households, the majority of whom rely on casual labor. Overall, food stock availability, below-average food prices, and access to agricultural labor income is driving Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in rural areas.

Daily COVID-19 cases have decreased from over 2,000 cases in July 2021 to about 600 cases per day in August, leading the government to gradually lift some stringent control measures. including an end to total lockdown in Kigali city and eight districts, free inter-district movement, and learning institutions have re-opened. The continued easing of COVID-19 control measures is expected to lead to the reopening of businesses and creation of employment opportunities, thereby increasing income earning opportunities for urban households and boost food supplies from rural areas. The on-going COVID-19 vaccination program was accelerated in August and currently 3.3 percent of the population is fully vaccinated as of 20 August.

In the Western Province, cross-border trade with Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to gradually improve following the agreement between the two countries to ease COVID-19 movement restrictions and reduce taxes on some agricultural commodities. The current daily cross-border movement of about 15,000 people is expected to progressively increase and get closer to pre-COVID-19 levels of an average of 55,000 people per day. This will primarily benefit the small-scale traders who were disproportionally affected by high transport costs and strict border regulations. Ultimately, the increase in cross-border trade will improve income and purchasing power in the province.  Overall, low and stable food prices, easing of control measures, and increased economic activity have improved income-earning opportunities and household purchasing power for urban poor households maintaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) area-level outcomes in urban areas.

According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), the July 2021 national consumer price index (CPI) decreased slightly by 0.3 percent compared to June 2021, and decreased by 1.1 percent compared to July 2020. In both urban and rural areas, the price of 'food and non-alcoholic beverages' increased slightly by 0.1 percent compared to July 2021. The slight price increases were driven primarily by a 1.9 and 1.6 percent increase in 'vegetable' prices in urban and rural areas, respectively, compared to June 2021 due to movement restrictions that affected marketing of vegetables. Notably, at the national level, prices of ‘bread and cereal’ and ‘milk, cheese, and eggs’ decreased by 1.2 and 1.3 percent, respectively, compared to June 2021 prices, driven by an adjustment of prices by traders that followed consumers complaints of higher prices.

The European Union donated EUR 500,000 in August to WFP to support the food and nutrition needs of about 46,000 refugees in Mahama camp. While this contribution along with support from other donors is mitigating the negative impact of the 60 percent reduction of general food assistance to refugees since March 2021, the UNHCR estimated 128,000 refugee and asylum-seekers remain food insecure. In addition, COVID-19 has adversely affected movement, business, and work opportunities previously relied upon by refugees and urban poor reversing some of the economic gains achieved such as self-reliance for some households and weakened social support among refugees. Though the program for the voluntary repatriation of Burundian refugees from Rwanda remains active, no recent returns have taken place due to funding shortfalls and the impact of COVID-19.  With the decreasing income-earning opportunities exacerbated by COVID-19, reduced food assistance from humanitarian agencies, and weakened social support, refugee households will likely continue experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes.