Famine Early Warning Systems Network

National

• Food prices are higher than normal, driven by a seasonal decline in the domestic staple food supply; a lack of harmonized cross-border trade regulations following the re-opening of the border with Uganda and the DRC; and global food and fuel supply shocks related to the Russia-Ukraine war. Cross-border trade constraints and global supply shocks are also placing pressure on the price of non-food essential items, including the cost of transporting goods and purchasing gas to cook.

• High food prices are expected to continue to undermine household purchasing power. First, the cost of trading and transporting cross-border goods will likely remain higher than normal until regulations are better harmonized. Second, the impacts of the war in Ukraine on fertilizer, food, and fuel prices are expected to exacerbate both domestic and imported food costs. Food prices are expected to peak in May, when domestic food supplies reach their lowest point of the April-September scenario period.

Rural areas

• Household food stocks from the Season A harvest are atypically low in parts of Eastern Province, due to irregular rainfall last year, and in localized areas of Northern and Southern provinces, due to post-harvest losses from excess moisture in early 2022.
• Key informants report that pulse prices are moderately above normal due to localized shortfalls in the Season A bean harvest. Prices are highest in Eastern Province.

• Although food prices in rural areas were lower in March compared to last year, the rural Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food and non-alcoholic beverages is 25.7 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels in March 2019. The rural CPI for ‘housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” rose by 2.5 and 17.2 percent on a monthly and annual basis, respectively.

• Amid rising food prices, the price of beans is likely to be highest in Eastern Province, where the Season A bean harvest was below normal. Reduced access to beans will likely lower the quality of household diets.
• Although total Season B prospects are favorable, localized areas will likely experience a delayed, below-normal maize and beans harvest due to extended rainfall in January/February that affected the timing of planting. Affected households will likely see a drop in food availability and income.
• Season B crop yields will also likely moderately decline due to high and rising fertilizer prices. The Rwandan government plans to mitigate the impact of high prices – which rose in 2021 and are rising further due to the Ukraine crisis – through the use of subsidies. Subsidies promoted a 33 percent increase in fertilizer use per hectare in 2021 (60 kg compared to 45 kg in 2020).

Kigali City

• Despite significant gains in economic activity in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2021, the unemployment rate is significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, reaching 23.8 percent in Q4 2021 according to the quarterly NISR Labor Force Survey. Below-normal income, together with high food prices, continue to constrain urban households’ purchasing power.
• In March, the urban CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 10.2 percent on an annual basis and by 5.1 percent monthly. The CPI was 29.1 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels in March 2019. The urban CPI for ‘housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’ rose by 3.9 and 8.1 percent on a monthly and annual basis, respectively, and key informants report rising costs for soap and lotion.  

• According to the latest World Bank projections, Rwanda’s economic recovery will most likely continue in 2022. While household employment and other income sources will likely improve, total household income in 2022 will most likely be lower than a typical year amid the gradual recovery.

Refugee and asylee population

• According to WFP, around 90 percent of the refugee and asylum seeker population (127,585 people) receives food assistance. Households WFP classifies as highly vulnerable (about 86 percent of the population) receive the equivalent of a 90 percent ration in cash, estimated to provide up to 27 days of their kilocalorie (kcal) needs. Households classified as moderately vulnerable (7 percent of the population) receive a 45 percent cash ration, estimated to provide up to 14 days of their kcal needs. However, the actual amount of food a household can purchase may be lower than estimated due to rising staple food prices, which reduces the purchasing power of the cash ration.

• Additional funding for food assistance is expected to permit the sustained delivery of partial cash rations to over 114,000 people through December 2022, but funding shortfalls will prevent the restoration of full rations. Highly vulnerable households are most likely to receive a 90 percent cash ration, while moderately vulnerable households are likely to receive a 45 percent cash ration. Based on the rising cost of food, the actual amount of food a household can access will likely decline if cash transfer values are not calibrated.  

• It is possible the number of refugees and asylees may progressively increase due to the new UK-Rwanda agreement to relocate undocumented, eligible migrants to Rwanda. However, legal challenges are expected to delay implementation of the plan.