Pockets of households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2), mainly due to elevated food prices
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
countries:
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
ZONE |
CURRENT ANOMALIES |
PROJECTED ANOMALIES |
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National |
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Rural areas |
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Kigali City |
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Refugee and asylee population |
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PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2022
In rural areas, household food and income from crop production, labor, and poultry and small ruminant production are expected to be minimally adequate to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through September. However, seasonal declines in food availability during the minor lean season (April to May) and below-normal household purchasing power is expected to result in a Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for a subset of households, especially in Eastern and Northern provinces. Reduced access to beans, coupled with elevated food prices, will most likely negatively affect household dietary diversity due to increased reliance on cheaper and less preferred foods. According to the NISR Consumer Price Index, vegetables, bread, and non-alcoholic drinks are the items currently driving food inflation. This trend is expected to be sustained through September, driven by a combination of domestic, regional, and global factors. Higher imported commodity costs are in part attributed to the Ukraine crisis, which has caused global volatility in grain prices, worsened global vegetable oil shortages, and driven up fuel prices, which in turn increases the costs of food transportation. However, wheat composes less than 15 percent of Rwanda’s cereal demand, and Rwanda’s cereal import requirements are below average.
Rising fertilizer prices pose a potential concern for crop production in 2022, particularly amid delayed planting for the Season B harvest, which has already caused some farmers to reduce area planted. Reductions to fertilizer use and, therefore, crop yields will likely by mitigated by government fertilizer subsidies and the promotion of organic manure. For example, even though the cost of NPK fertilizer rose by 24 percent from July 2021 to January 2022, the subsidized price remains 35 percent lower than the market price. Subsidies proved effective in mitigating the impact of high fertilizer prices during the late 2021 Season A production season, as total fertilizer use per hectare rose from 45 kg in 2020 to 60 kg in 2021. Nevertheless, fertilizer usage is uneven between wealth groups, and poor subsistence farmers are still vulnerable to higher subsidized prices, leading to reduced spending on inputs and lower crop yields at the household level.
Food security in urban areas is expected to remain stable, driven by significant post-COVID-19 gains in economic activity in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2021 and the latest World Bank projection of a sustained recovery trend in 2022. However, the latest NISR Labor Force Survey showed the unemployment rate remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, reaching 23.8 percent in Q4 2021. Given that food and essential non-food items remain not only significantly above pre-pandemic levels in urban areas but also show a rising trend compared to last year and last month (Figure 1), limited household purchasing power is expected to remain a limiting factor for food access for some households. While the overall improvement in economic activity will most likely maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, a subset of households will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), manifested in lower dietary diversity, consumption of cheaper foods, and reduced meal sizes.
Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely among the 127,585 protracted refugee and asylee population in Rwanda, most of whom depend on humanitarian food assistance, given that they have little to no access to productive assets or financial capital amid rising food prices. Although WFP received additional funding for food assistance in April 2022, this is only expected to permit the delivery of partial cash rations to over 114,000 people identified as either highly (86 percent of the population) or moderately (7 percent of the population) vulnerable through December 2022. Funding shortfalls of about 9.8 million USD will prevent the restoration of full general food assistance distributions. As a result, there is a gap in coverage of a household’s minimum monthly kcal needs, and the refugee and asylee population faces challenges covering the gap through other means amid the progressive recovery of the local economy and elevated costs of food and non-food items. Without food aid, they would likely deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse.
About Remote Monitoring
In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.
Region Contact Information
Email: fewsinquiry.east@fews.net