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Heavy rains in March-April, over 191 percent of average, caused bean crop losses, landslides, and flooding, particularly in northern, northwestern, Kigali and southeastern areas. Total Season B production is still likely to be average to below average. Food and income access for most poor households is unlikely to change, and the country is expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Some poor households in areas most affected by the rains are likely to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
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According to the National Institute of Statistics (NISR), overall staple food prices in rural areas increased in March 2018 by 1.3 percent compared to the previous month. Non-cereal crops (beans, Irish potatoes, legumes) had the largest monthly increase, up by 3.8 percent. Following April’s heavy rains and flooding, key informants have reported that the prices of staple food are rising quickly. By September, staple food prices may return to September 2017 levels, especially for beans.
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According to UNHCR, as of March 31, Rwanda hosted approximately 174,000 refugees, of whom about 93,000 were Burundians. Approximately two thirds of Burundian refugees live in Mahama Camp in Kirehe District, Eastern Province. WFP provides only about 75 percent of food needs for refugees in camps, but the Government of Rwanda continues to allow refugees to seek work outside the camps to supplement their food needs. As a result, with humanitarian assistance, this population is expected to continue facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes.
ZONE | CURRENT ANOMALIES | PROJECTED ANOMALIES |
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Cumulative rainfall in March-April was twice the normal amount across the country. The most affected districts have been Nyabihu and Rubavu in Western Province, Rulindo in Northern, Gasabo in Kigali, as well as Gatsibo and Kirehe in Eastern Province. Though the production of beans is likely to be below average, particularly in these areas, other crops benefitted from the heavy rains, which is likely to keep national production at average to below-average levels in June. Displacement from flooding and landslides could move some of the most vulnerable poor households to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), especially those in Eastern Province, who had below-average Season A production. However, the majority of poor households are expected to remain in None (IPC Phase 1) as food availability and access are not expected to change.
For the rural areas, where the poor mainly reside, NISR reported that overall staple food prices increased by 1.3 percent in March compared to February 2018, with the price of cereals (including maize flour) remaining stable and the price of non-cereal staples, such as beans and Irish potatoes, increasing by 3.8 percent. Season B bean production deficits are expected to be partially filled by imports from Uganda and Tanzania, which are likely to increase prices. As a result, poor households are likely to consume less beans and/or substitute cheaper and less preferred foods, such as sweet potatoes and cassava flour.
The combination of the Government of Rwanda’s expanded social protection programs, the existence of adequate income-earning opportunities (including the demand for labor to repair damaged infrastructures) for market food purchases, and Rwanda’s capacity to import needed food, is expected to maintain good food access through September 2018. In addition, due to the high expected level of residual moisture, prospects for the minor Season C harvest in September look favorable.
Rwanda hosts about 174,000 refugees, of whom about 53 percent are Burundians and 47 percent Congolese. Most refugees live in camps where they mainly rely on humanitarian assistance to cover their food and essential non-food needs. Due to persistent funding gaps, WFP is still only able to cover about 75 percent of refugees’ minimum daily food requirements. To help mitigate that situation, the Government of Rwanda has allowed refugees to seek labor opportunities outside of camps in order to support market food purchases and is gradually integrating refugees in its national safety net program. Despite these initiatives, the refugees are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity outcomes through September.
Overall, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are likely to persist through September in Rwanda. However, some poor households most affected by the heavy rainfall are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, and the more than 130,000 refugees living in camps are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in the presence of humanitarian assistance.
Figure 1
SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR
Source: FEWS NET
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