Key Message Update

Above-average harvest in December expected to reverse trend of rising food prices

November 2019

November 2019 - January 2020

February - May 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Cumulative season 2020A rainfall has been average in most areas, with above-average rainfall forecast through December. This has been beneficial to the development of most crops, though damage to the bean crop due to excessive humidity is expected to lead to reduced production, particularly in the North Province. As poor households deplete their food reserves, access to income from construction and farm labor – in addition to unconditional cash transfers for the poorest households within the national safety net program – is supporting access to food. Overall, above-average harvests are expected to further increase access to food in December, with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes expected through May 2020.

  • Current rainfall has not resulted in extensive flooding and landslides. However, recent forecasts suggest that there is significantly increased risk of these disasters in November, particularly in the mountainous areas of the Congo Nile Ridge of the Western Province. In affected areas, severe damage to crops and infrastructure is likely. The government and partners are prepared to respond rapidly with assistance, expected to maintain current food security conditions across the country. 

  • After two years of nearly continuous decline, food prices have been rising in recent months. According to the National Institute of Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 2.4 percent from September to October 2019, while the consumer price index for bread and cereals increased by 4.0 percent. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages are 14.2 percent higher compared to October of 2018, driven in part by prices of bread and cereals which increased by 18.2 percent during the same period. However, food prices are expected to peak in November as traders sell their old stocks before the first Season 2020A harvests in December.

  • The number of refugees living in Rwanda remains stable at about 150,000. The integration of refugees and asylum-seekers into the national social and economic systems, as well as the combination of cash-based and in-kind humanitarian assistance, contribute to developing both own and host communities’ livelihoods. With ongoing humanitarian assistance, refugees in Rwanda are expected to continue facing Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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