Key Message Update

Likely average Season A production to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes

November 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Most poor households are experiencing no acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) in November, the peak of the lean season, with ongoing above-average Season C production, food reserves from the June/July Season B harvest, and early Season A harvests, including vegetables. Due to adequate rainfall since mid-October, Season A harvests through January will likely be average and help support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through at least mid-2019. However, in localized areas, including Rwamagana and Kayonza Districts, rainfall deficits will likely drive below-average production, leading some poor households to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) by April.

  • According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, food prices decreased 0.6 percent nationally from September to October, though declines were slightly more significant in rural areas, near 1.7 percent. The trend is atypical, as food prices typically increase during that period. Although prices are likely to increase slightly through December, it is expected the scale of increase will be lower than usual. Household purchasing power is anticipated to remain favorable, further supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

  • Within the United Nation’s Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework, the Government of Rwanda is putting in place measures to integrate an estimated 150,000 refugees into the national education system, health and social protection programs, and permitting them to work legally within Rwanda. It is expected the 58,000 Burundian refugees in Mahama camp in Kirehe District who have not yet been integrated into these systems, will soon be included. Many refugees are still receiving humanitarian food assistance, though, and among them Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics