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Likely average Season A production to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes

  • Key Message Update
  • Rwanda
  • November 2018
Likely average Season A production to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Most poor households are experiencing no acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) in November, the peak of the lean season, with ongoing above-average Season C production, food reserves from the June/July Season B harvest, and early Season A harvests, including vegetables. Due to adequate rainfall since mid-October, Season A harvests through January will likely be average and help support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through at least mid-2019. However, in localized areas, including Rwamagana and Kayonza Districts, rainfall deficits will likely drive below-average production, leading some poor households to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) by April.

    • According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, food prices decreased 0.6 percent nationally from September to October, though declines were slightly more significant in rural areas, near 1.7 percent. The trend is atypical, as food prices typically increase during that period. Although prices are likely to increase slightly through December, it is expected the scale of increase will be lower than usual. Household purchasing power is anticipated to remain favorable, further supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

    • Within the United Nation’s Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework, the Government of Rwanda is putting in place measures to integrate an estimated 150,000 refugees into the national education system, health and social protection programs, and permitting them to work legally within Rwanda. It is expected the 58,000 Burundian refugees in Mahama camp in Kirehe District who have not yet been integrated into these systems, will soon be included. Many refugees are still receiving humanitarian food assistance, though, and among them Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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