Key Message Update

Food access remains stable, except for refugees in camps

November 2017

November 2017 - January 2018

February - May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Rainfall has been well-established since mid-October and generally average countrywide, leading to favorable Season A (September-December 2017) crop growth. To date, there have been no reported significant damages from Fall Armyworm (FAW), so total Season A production seems likely to be average if the rains continue. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist, except some poor households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) ahead of the December harvest, particularly in localized areas of Bugesera and Rusizi districts that had below-average harvests in June 2017. 

  • Staple food prices remain above average but are anticipated to start decreasing in late November ahead of the first harvests in December, which will improve household food access. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), food prices between October 2017 and October 2016 increased slightly more than the national annual inflation rate of about five percent. However, regional food imports, mainly from Uganda and Tanzania, are helping to stabilize food prices.  

  • According to UNHCR, as of the end of October, Rwanda hosted about 172,000 refugees and asylum seekers, and nearly 89,000 were Burundians. Between September and October, there was a sharp 154 percent increase in Burundian arrivals. Due to funding shortfalls, in November, WFP cut daily rations by 10 percent for refugees living in camps, including the more than 56,000 Burundian refugees in Mahama camp, who would face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the absence of assistance. Further cuts are likely in coming months without additional funding.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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