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In mid-May, farmers began harvesting Season B beans and maize crops. Total cumulative Season B (February to May) rainfall is likely to be average, but some western areas experienced below-average amounts. Barring a premature end of the rainy season, total national crop production is likely to be near to above average, which is expected to reduce staple food prices, beginning in June. As a result, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to prevail through September across the country.
Some sectors in Kirehe and Bugesera districts in Eastern Province and Rusizi District in Western Province are likely to experience crop production shortfalls due to below-average rainfall in lowland areas and/or impacts from armyworm. Rweru sector in Bugesera District is a special case as it is likely to have a second consecutive, severe crop production shortfall due to the delayed onset and long dry spells during Season B. Poor households in these areas are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
Staple food prices remain high and have not significantly eased with the initial harvest, but they are expected to significantly fall in June. Further staple food price declines are likely through September as regional imports from Tanzania and Uganda are expected to seasonally increase. With lower prices, the Government of Rwanda is expected to partially replenish its strategic food reserves, and WFP plans to continue sourcing its relief food locally. In April, WFP Rwanda locally procured over 50 percent of the 1,553 MT of food it distributed.
According to UNCHR, the influx of Burundian refugees has stabilized at about 350 per month. More than 60 percent living in Mahama Camp in Kirehe District are entirely dependent on WFP food assistance and remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). WFP Rwanda has not received sufficient funding to maintain its overall assistance in Rwanda and recently ended stunting prevention programs for children aged 6-23 months, and for pregnant and breastfeeding mothers; however, refugee assistance has not yet been reduced.
This Key Message Update provides a broad summary of FEWS NET's current and projected analysis of likely acute food insecurity outcomes in this geography. Learn more about our work here.