Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes expected due to Season A harvest

• Food stocks from the Season A harvest and seasonal income from agricultural labor have improved food access, sustaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes among most rural households. In addition, the availability of interseason staples, such as bananas, sweet potatoes, cassava, and other vegetables, is supporting food access at the national level. However, localized staple food deficits are occurring in Eastern and Southern provinces, where rainfall has been erratic, and in Western Province, where trade has been disrupted by conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). When the minor lean season starts in April, the population facing Stressed (IPC 2) outcomes will likely increase in rural areas, with most households depleting their own food stocks and relying on market purchases amid high prices. 

• Atypically high staple food prices linked to local and global factors are likely to continue, limiting poor households’ ability to purchase diverse and nutritious food, particularly during the April to May lean season, when prices are expected to rise. The National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) reported that monthly food inflation increased by 7 percent in rural areas in February compared to January, as annual food inflation remained high at 68 percent. Increased demand for planting seeds for Season B and high production costs have contributed to the rise in already high staple food prices. However, the Season B harvest, which is expected in June and accounts for around 35 percent of annual production, is expected to be average and will replenish food stocks for most households in rural areas, likely maintaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

• In Kigali City, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected as Rwanda’s growing economy continues to offer sufficient income-generating opportunities for most households to purchase their minimum food needs. However, high food prices, the relatively high official unemployment rate, and the increased cost of living are likely to limit some poor urban households’ ability to meet their basic food needs, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Poor households’ food access will remain constrained by high food prices, which persisted atypically high during the seasonal harvest despite a slight reduction in January. In February, NISR reported that urban food inflation rose by 42 percent over the past year and 4.7 percent compared to January 2023.

• The approximately 127,000 refugees and asylees in Rwanda are expected to face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. WFP is providing in-kind and cash transfers intended to cover 54 percent of the food basket for highly vulnerable refugees (87 percent of the population) and 23 percent of the food basket for moderately vulnerable refugees (6 percent of the population). Most refugees and asylees have income-earning opportunities within the camps and surrounding towns, but they would likely face food consumption gaps in the absence of assistance. According to WFP’s price monitoring in January, the cost of the minimum food basket increased by five percent compared to the previous month and 76 percent compared to January 2022, compromising the purchasing power of the cash assistance. Moreover, around 5,400 new asylum seekers have fled to Rwanda in the last three months, displaced by increased fighting in eastern DRC. These new arrivals have only been able to receive partial humanitarian assistance, as the funding gap is growing with increasing demand for support.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Rwanda Key Message Update, March 2023. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes expected due to Season A harvest.