Adequate rains at start of season bode well for above-average June harvests

The 2018 B cropping season (March-June) is underway, with successful planting efforts as the rains started on time and have been fairly well-distributed. With a generally favorable March-May rainfall forecast, the next harvest is likely to be average to above average, similar to 2018 Season A. With continued good food availability and access, the country is expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, during the April-May lean season, some poor households in localized areas in Eastern Province that had below-average Season A production, may be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

According to the National Institute of Statistics, staple food prices have remained relatively stable since December 2017. In February, they were 7.4 and 10 percent lower than a year ago at the national and rural levels, respectively, improving poor household purchasing power. Ahead of the lean season, as poor households typically depend more on markets to meet their food needs, there are sufficient income-earning opportunities from farm labor and public work projects. The Government of Rwanda’s expanded social protection programs are also facilitating food access.

Due to continued funding gaps, WFP is only able to provide 75 percent of daily food rations to over 173,000 refugees in camps. In February, this triggered violent clashes between refugees in Kiziba camp and police, resulting in 11 deaths. Despite this, nearly 2,600 Burundian refugees from the DRC, who were fearing forceful deportation to Burundi, fled to Rwanda in February. In the absence of assistance, the refugee camp population would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).