Food prices decrease moderately as harvests boost market supply

Due to abundant rainfall, Season 2020 A production of maize, cassava, and bananas is expected to be above average. This is expected to have more than compensated for production shortfalls of beans and Irish potatoes – which are sensitive  to excess moisture – and some localized crop losses in the Northern, Western, and Southern provinces due to flooding. As a result, Season 2020 A harvests are expected to be above average overall, supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through May 2020. According to current forecasts, average rainfall is anticipated during the February-May period, expected to result in another favorable harvest in May-June.

According to the consumer price index for food and non-alcoholic beverages published by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), food prices decreased by 2.5 percent in rural areas – where most poor households live – from November to December 2019. After increasing by 8.2 percent from October to November, this recent decrease is attributed to the start of the harvests, which have likely increased market supply of some staples. However, the price index for bread and cereals increased by 3.5 percent in rural areas during this time. According to key informants, trade with Tanzania has been gradually increasing since the closure of Gatuna border post with Uganda in March 2019. As a result, increased exports to Rwanda are expected to exert some additional downward pressure on food prices.

As of December 31, 2019, Rwanda hosted nearly 150,000 refugees and asylum seekers according to UNHCR. Due to availability of resources, refugees in Rwanda are experiencing Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes. Meanwhile, an International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) assessment of the three worst affected districts – Gisagara, Ngororero, and Rusizi – reports that approximately 2,968 people in these areas were displaced by severe flooding in early December. Assistance and increasing disaster management capacities is sustaining Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes among affected households.