Key Message Update

Food insecurity in eastern districts likely to be affected by below-average maize production

January 2017

January 2017

Rwanda January 2017 Food Security Projections for January

February - May 2017

Rwanda January 2017 Food Security Projections for February to May

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Below-average Season A rainfall from mid-December through mid-January, has dampened maize production prospects. Anecdotal information suggests that maize yields could decline by up to 20 percent, with the most significant losses likely in the Eastern Semi-Arid Agropastoral zone. While the majority of the country is expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through the end of the harvest, food insecurity could accentuate earlier than usual in March, particularly in Kirehe, Gatsibo, and Kayonza districts, leading to some poor households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the lean season.

  • However, food prices declined seasonally from the last week of December as Season A harvests progressed, improving household food access. Beans retailed at Rwanda Franc (RWF) 500 in December as compared to RWF 800 in October, in Kigali.  Similarly, Irish potatoes were RWF 220 in December, as compared to RWF 350 in October. Maize prices are expected to decline in February as harvests are completed, temporarily replenishing household food stocks.

  • The influx of Burundi refugees has continued into January 2017, amidst severe funding shortfalls. An estimated 84,000 refugees from Burundi, who arrived since April 2015, were hosted in camps in southern Rwanda and in the capital, Kigali, as of January 16. Acute food insecurity for refugees is projected to remain at Crisis (IPC Phase 3) if humanitarian assistance funding shortfalls and inabilities to access livelihood income-earning opportunities persist. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics