Relatively mild lean season in Rwanda due to surplus stocks

• Agricultural labor is at seasonally low levels, so poor households are relying on the remaining stocks from the favorable Season A harvest to alleviate the severity of the April to May lean season. Prices of main staples, including cassava flour, beans and maize, remain below December 2015 levels, but higher prices were recorded in some district markets, such as Nyagatare in the Eastern Semi-Arid livelihood zone. This zone is still affected by the three previous below-average harvests. 

• Ongoing average to above-average rains, associated with El Niño, will lead to a good Season B harvest beginning in late May. This will improve prospects for food access even in the below-average production areas of Kayonza, Kirehe and Nyagatare Districts and will contribute to a seasonal decline in prices. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected in all areas through September, although some households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in Eastern Semi-Arid zones.

• As of April 28, according to UNHCR, 77,278 Burundian refugees resettled in Rwanda, with about 63 percent in Mahama camp in Kirehe District. A March 31 WFP report noted that there could be pipeline breaks for critical food assistance in June and for cash-based transfers (CBTs) in August. With continued inflows of refugees expected due to the insecurity in Burundi and UNHCR’s 80 percent funding gap for Rwanda, the food security outcomes of the refugees may deteriorate. 

For more detailed analysis, see the Remote Monitoring Update for February – September 2016.