Integrated Food Security Analysis

Season B green harvest stabilizes food availability in rural areas

May 2021

May 2021

June - September 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The Season B green bean and Irish potato harvest has maintained food availability in rural areas, stabilizing food prices and mitigating the minor lean season. In the Northern Province, the Irish potato farm gate price declined from 270 RWF/kg in April to 250 RWF/kg in May driven by the new harvest.  Overall, the availability of Irish potatoes, green beans, vegetables, and other inter-seasonal crops (sweet potato, cassava, and banana) are driving Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes among rural households. However, heavy rainfall in early May contributed to flooding and landslides that affected 6,500 people and destroyed 300 hectares of crops. Additional flooding poses a risk of impacting the Season B crop harvest in June, particularly for beans.

  • About 350,000 people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose since vaccinations began on March 3, 2021. The current plan is to vaccinate 60 percent of the population by the end of 2022. COVID-19 control measures eased further in early-May with the business operation curfew shortening by one hour to 9 pm to 4 am. Public transport carrying capacity also increased to 75 percent. The easing of restrictions is expected to continue to improve income earning opportunities and household purchasing power, especially in the urban areas, maintaining area-level Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, in identified hotspot areas such as Nyanza, Gisagaha, and Huye in the Southern Province, movement restrictions between 7 pm to 4 pm, and 30 percent capacity for businesses operations continue to limit localized income-earning opportunities.

  • According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’ prices in April 2021 decreased monthly by 3.2 percent in rural areas but increased in urban areas by 0.5 percent. Annually, April 2021 prices increased by 0.1 and 1.2 percent in rural and urban areas respectively compared to prices last year.  In rural areas, the monthly price decreases were driven by a 5.2 and 2.3 percent decrease in ‘vegetables’ and ‘bread and cereals’ prices, respectively, due to unusually high availability of stocks from Season A and current access to vegetables from Season B. Nationally, the consumer price index decreased by 0.9 percent compared to March 2021, primarily driven by a 2.1 percent decrease in ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’ prices.

  • To mitigate the effects of the 60 percent reduction of  assistance for refugees due to  funding shortfalls, WFP and UNHCR  have rolled out a new targeting mechanism that  prioritizes general food assistance to the most vulnerable refugees. Under the new criteria, refugees categorized as ‘highly vulnerable and most in need’ will receive a full ration of food assistance, ‘moderately vulnerable but still in need’ will be eligible for 50 percent rations, while the ‘least vulnerable’ refugees will not be eligible to receive food assistance. While this approach will offer some reprieve to beneficiaries, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes among the estimated 125,700 refugees are likely to continue as opportunities for earning income outside the camps are constrained by COVID-19 restrictions.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics