Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Season A planting of beans and maize is almost complete in most areas of the country following the early onset of effective rains in August. Below-average rainfall during the second dekad of September interrupted planting in some areas. Drier conditions throughout the month in the Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming, Bugesera Cassava, and Eastern Semi-arid Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones delayed planting in these areas. Short-term forecasts indicate normal rainfall in the coming weeks and planting is expected to continue in these areas through October.

A recent outbreak of Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD) has reportedly affected more than 15,000 hectares of cassava crops in Kamonyi and Ruhango districts in Southern Province. The Rwanda Agriculture Board confirmed infection of cassava crop in the Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming Zone and in Bugesera Cassava Zone. The spread of CBSD to other Southern Province districts of Gisagara, Huye, and Nyanza—although on a much smaller scale—has raised concerns about Season A crop losses. 

Reductions in area planted have caused a decline in demand for agricultural labor in food insecure areas. Labor demand typically peaks with September/ October planting as Season A is Rwanda’s most important agricultural season. Many poor households rely on agricultural labor this time of year offset increased market dependence during the lean season. Labor migration is common during this time and coincides with high labor demand.   However, Season B production deficits reduced household seed surpluses for Season A planting. As a result, many farmers are cultivating smaller plots, reducing labor opportunities for the poor. To cope with reduced income opportunities, laborers have increased migration and travel further distances in search of labor opportunities. For example, heads of households from Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming Zone where last season’s production deficits were among the highest in the country, heads of households have reportedly begun migrating as far as Ngoma and Nyagatare along the eastern border in search of labor opportunities.  Cross-border labor migration to Uganda has also increased.

Increased imports from Uganda and Tanzania kept maize and bean prices stable from July to August. However, bean prices remain higher than last year and above the two-year average. In Birambo, August bean prices were nearly 25 percent higher than last year and 34 percent above the two-year average, and 20 percent and 45 percent higher in Nyakarambi compared to last year and the two-year average, respectively.  Staple food prices in most markets in the Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming, Bugesera Cassava, and Eastern Semi-arid Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones were on average, 15 to 20 percent higher in August compared to last year.

Government-led food for work programs targeting very poor households with food deficits in Gashora, Ngereruka, Kamabuye, and Rweru sectors of Bugesera Cassava Zone temporarily improved food access for 12,000 households since mid-August. Participating households received two kilograms of beans and three kilograms of maize per day.  However, the program only lasted for 20 days and poor households will face difficulties accessing food during the October to December main lean season when many poor households will likely only eat one meal a day.