Food security among poor households improves following the Season A harvest

• The recent Season A harvest has generally replenished household food stocks back to normal levels, seasonally improving food access for poor households across the country. Between January and June 2014, most households will be able to meet essential food and non-food needs without major difficulties, and all regions will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.
• Due to improved market supply following the recent harvests, January prices for key staples generally fell compared to December’s levels. For example, bean and maize prices fell by 26 percent and 20 percent, respectively, at the Kabarondo market. However, despite these seasonally normal price declines, prices still remain slightly above last year’s levels at most markets, although they are not at levels that will significantly affect food access.

• Season A agricultural production: Apart from the Rutsiro, Ngororero, and Karongi zones where a cooler climate generally causes harvests to be slightly later than in other areas of the country, Season A harvests are now complete. At a national level, crop production is expected to be average, with below-average maize production due to the usage of low quality seeds. However, localized areas of Mayange, Rweru, Gashora, Kamabuye, and Juru sectors in Bugesera district, as well as  some sectors of Karongi, Rutsiro and Nyamagabe districts, experienced problems with dry spells, pests, erosion, and high soil acidity in newly terraced fields, which will cause locally below-average production.  
• Labor incomes: The on-time start of the long rainy season in mid-February enabled households to begin land preparation activities for agricultural Season B. These land preparation activities, as well as final Season A harvesting activities, provide poor households with agricultural labor opportunities and normal income levels. Wages are seasonally average, ranging from 800 to 1,200 RWF per day. Ongoing, multi-year government safety net programs, such as the Rural Sector Support Project, the Vision 2020 Umurenge, and the Land Husbandry Water Harvesting and Hillside Irrigation project, are also employing about 32,000 people in labor activities throughout rural districts of Rwanda. Wages from these government-led programs are generally higher than on-farm labor wages and range from 1,500 to 2,000 RWF per day. Poor households in West Congo-Nile Crest Tea zone are also employed in tea plantations and pruning activities.
• Livestock conditions and incomes: The short dry season (January to February) was characterized by regular above average rains which sustained pasture and water resources. This contributed to good livestock body conditions and seasonally high cattle prices. For example, the January price for one cow at Mutake and Gataba livestock markets was 200,000 RWF, which compares to 160,000 RWF at the same time last year. For poor households who generally sell small animals (goats, pigs, and chickens), livestock prices have been relatively stable but slightly above last year’s level.
• Markets and prices: Food prices have generally gone down this month due to the recent harvests. For example, bean and maize prices have declined 19 percent and 20 percent, respectively, at Kabaya market and 26 percent and 20 percent, respectively, at Kaborondo market between December and January. However, prices of staple commodities are still higher than last year’s prices at most markets. This is due to residually tight supply relating to last year’s below-average Season B harvest, increased demand from refugees and returnees, and, in the case of maize, below-average 2014 Season A harvests. These high food prices will negatively affect poor households’ purchasing power until the next harvests in June 2014.
• Refugees and returnees: 75,000 DRC refugees, who mostly arrived between 2000 and 2012, are currently settled in Nyabiheke, Kiziba, Kigeme, Gihembe, and Nkamira camps. They are meeting their food and non-food needs through assistance provided by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs, in partnership with UNHCR and WFP. A new refugee camp is being constructed in Mugombwa sector of Gisagara district to host refugees currently at Nkamira transit camp as recommended by UNHCR. The reintegration process of the Rwandan returnees expelled last year from Tanzania is still ongoing with short-term food and non-food support from the government.

The current situation has not affected the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for January to June 2014. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the January to June 2014 Food Security Outlook.

Since January 2014, most households have been relying on their own harvests to access food. However, due to relatively small landholdings among poor households in Rwanda, household food stocks deplete quickly. As a result, between March and June, most poor households will no longer have their own food stocks and will be market dependant, similar to a normal year. In the localized areas described above that experienced below-average crop production during agricultural Season A, household food stocks may deplete slightly earlier than usual. However, these households will still be able to meet basic food and non-food needs without major difficulties, due to relatively normal food and income flows from other sources, including labor sales, remittances, and migration. As a result, all areas of the country will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through at least June 2014.