Household food stocks rapidly deplete following below-average harvests

• Season ‘B’ harvests in June/July were approximately 30 percent below-normal. While food prices at most markets were stable in July compared with June, they are expected to increase at an atypical rate throughout the outlook period (August to December) due to the effects of the poor harvests. This will restrict food access for poor households during the upcoming months.

• The ongoing dry season (normally June to August), started in May this year, approximately one month earlier than normal. This caused an early decline in pastoral resources, as well as livestock body conditions. Consequently, milk availability and household incomes from livestock and livestock product sales are currently below-average, particularly in the major livestock production areas of the eastern livelihood zones.

• Political tension between Tanzania and Rwanda since late May caused an unexpected inflow of 7,200 Rwandan returnees. Most of these returnees have settled in the Kirehe, Kayonza, and Gatsibo districts of the Eastern province. Due to the unexpected nature of their return, food assistance for the returnees has been inadequate and returnees are currently having difficulties meeting their consumption needs. 

• Food sources: In most areas of the country, season ‘B’ harvests in June/July were approximately 30 percent below-normal. As a result, food stocks for poor households depleted approximately one month earlier than normal. The most severe crop losses were observed in the Eastern Semi Arid Agro Pastoral and Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming zones and in these zones, household food stocks depleted at the beginning of August, compared to September in a normal year.  Consequently, poor households across the country are currently accessing food through market purchases.
• Returnees: Recent political tension has prompted a sudden and unexpected return of Rwandans from Tanzania. As of August 22, 2013, an estimated 7,200 returnees have been reported, with 2,924 settling at the Kigarama temporary camp in Kirehe District. Many of these returnees have come with livestock (2,500 heads of cattle), for which the Government of Rwanda is helping find pasture in Nyagatare and Gatsibo districts. The Rwandan government and UNHCR are also providing essential food and nonfood assistance to the returnees, although due to the unexpected nature of their return, humanitarian assistance programs in place are not fully meeting needs. In addition, due to the cessation clause that ended refugee status for Rwandans in exile at the end of June 2013, 1,407 people from Uganda, Malawi, and the DRC have reentered the country, according to the Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs (MIDIMAR).
• Livestock conditions: Due to the rainy season ending in May, one month earlier than normal, pastoral and water availability for livestock, as well as livestock body conditions and milk production, have deteriorated earlier than normal this year. These below-average body conditions, coupled with an increased livestock supply on Eastern markets as returnees sell their animals as a coping strategy, have caused livestock prices to decline. For example at the Kayonza and Gatsibo markets in eastern Rwanda, a local cow currently sells for approximately 200 000 RWF, which compares to 250 000 RWF at the same time last year. Consequently, household incomes from livestock and livestock product sales (ex. milk) are currently below-average.
• Agricultural activities: Land preparation activities for season ‘A’ (September to December) are underway across the country, although a lack of normal, light rains during the dry season have caused the intensity of land preparation activities to be below average. Season ‘C’ crops, which occurs in marshland areas and contributes to approximately 10 percent of national crop production, are currently developing normally and an average harvest is expected between September and October.
• Labor income: A recent field assessment by FEWS NET revealed that the major income source for poor families is wage labor activities, primarily related to season ‘A’ land preparation activities, tea plantation work, construction, and terracing activities under programs such as the Land Husbandry, Water Harvesting and Hill side irrigation project (LWH), the Gishwati Water and Land Management project (GWLM), the Rural Sector Support Project (RSSP) and Vision Umurenge programs. In most areas of the country, labor wages are currently normal, varying between 700 to 1000RWF per day depending on livelihood zone. Wages are also expected to follow seasonal trends during the outlook period with a peak in labor demand and wages in mid-September to October with season ‘A’ planting activities. However in the eastern livelihoods zones, wages are expected be slightly lower than normal due to an above-average number of people seeking work with the recent returnees from Tanzania.
• Staple food prices:  Given the recent harvests in June/July that replenished household and market food stocks, staple food prices in July were generally stable across the country compared to June 2013 levels. In addition, compared to last year’s levels at this time, prices varied depending on the commodity in question with the Irish potato, bean, and cassava prices generally above last year’s levels, maize prices generally lower, and cooking banana prices relatively similar. However due to the effects of below-average crop production levels, prices are expected to increase at an atypically fast rate over the next several months, with some markets already indicating low market stock levels and increasing food prices in August, according to a recent FEWS NET assessment to the Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming Zone.

The current situation has not affected the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the period of July to December 2013. A full discussion of the scenario is available at the July to December 2013 Food Security Outlook. 

Given the recent season ‘B’ harvest, most households will be able to meet their consumption needs through their own crop production through mid-September. Then starting in October, these households will access food normally through market purchases, using cash income that they’ve generated from various income sources, such as wage labor. Consequently, over 80 percent of households in most areas will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity during the remainder of the Outlook period (August to December).

However in two areas of concern (the Eastern semi arid agro pastoral livelihood zone and the Eastern Congo Nile highland subsistence farming livelihood zone), poor households are highly vulnerable to food security-related hazards and the below-average season ‘B’ harvests will cause households to have difficulties accessing food during the peak of the lean season (October to early December). In these areas, households will engage in a variety of atypical coping strategies, such as temporary migration to other zones and/or the sale of additional small animals, to meet basic food needs and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the second half of the outlook period.